Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[lunatism]

hmmm.....i'd say more of a guideline than a curiosity thing. But (don't know if you read further up the thread or not) i do use a very strict system for predicting these too - and i was always intending on trialling how successful different betting options would fare with my system.

CS would definitely be one of these betting options! So all you've done is brought forward something I would have done anyway - the time factor? Well, all i need to do is to finish my "getting past results" macro, and everything should be automated! This means that I would definitely be able to have all the information you would be after at mid-week by the latest, if not much sooner.

I would generate a similar stat analysis to the one I use for the other system, but most likely put this is a grid, so you can see how each predicted score would fare - you'd know exactly how much you would have made (or lost), for each score, and the most CS would be highlight (i guess?!)......and of course i'd show the overall strike rate, etc too

it probably sounds like much - don't worry, i've got the "things" in place, they just await the results.

in case you wondered, the reason i keep mentioning betting on certain scores more than others, is that i briefly looked at this a few months back, and i was getting remarkable reliability with the 0 - 0, 1 - 0 and 0 - 1 scorelines, i shelved it so i could concentrate more on making this better....but it still around somewhere

reason i mentioned 1000 games, is because at this moment in time i have 900+ from the last three days, so if i was to go back a few weeks i'd have more than "enough".

What would you consider to be a reasonable sample size?

[Punto Banco]

I must hit the hay with work time edging ever so close some sleep MAY be required however to that question about sample size i say depends... main thing is to compare performance of the CS predictions for matches you bet on and the rest or perhaps find which grouping perform better as you just mentioned perhaps those that predict 1-0, 1-1, 0-1 etc also of course average odds on these CS is also important as these tend to be shorter you may hit higher strike % but make less due to unappealing odds... though from what I see from all this you have it covered, I will just stop being impatient and wait until you get it sorted (My thoughts best not to rush anyways plenty of time.... says me...) but anyways I will be able to think up a real answer tomorrow... 4 now

[lunatism]

ok, able to write my summary early (for once) since an afternoon match. Couldn't find the livescore for this match anywhere, but eventually found out that San Marino Calcio managed a comfortable win over Sansovino , and they were also leading at half time, which is always nice (would have been better if i'd known beforehand though!):

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
10/02/08	Italian Serie C2 - Girone B	San Marino Calcio	v	AC Sansovino	3 - 0	---	YES	9.14

....and the accompanying updated stats:

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	106.48
TOTAL STAKED	191.69
NUMBER OF BETS	29
WINNING BETS	21
LOSING BETS	8
STRIKE RATE	72.41%
YIELD	3%
PROFIT / LOSS	6.48
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.47
CORRECT SCORE	13% (4/30)
CORRECT MARGIN	13% (4/30)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	62% (13/21)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	33% (7/21)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	5% (1/21)
HOME PERFORMANCE	74% (20/27)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	50% (1/2)

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	123.50
TOTAL STAKED	122.09
NUMBER OF BETS	18
WINNING BETS	16
LOSING BETS	2
STRIKE RATE	88.89%
YIELD	19%
PROFIT / LOSS	23.50
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.40
CORRECT SCORE	17% (3/18)
CORRECT MARGIN	17% (3/18)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	67% (8/12)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	33% (4/12)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	0% (0/12)
HOME PERFORMANCE	88% (15/17)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	100% (1/1)

now, the system takes a little breather until Tuesday - but hopefully before then I can put up those CS stats that you're after (i'm talking about YOU MaKDaddYSportsBET)

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by MaKDaddYSportsBET

I must hit the hay with work time edging ever so close some sleep MAY be required however to that question about sample size i say depends... main thing is to compare performance of the CS predictions for matches you bet on and the rest or perhaps find which grouping perform better as you just mentioned perhaps those that predict 1-0, 1-1, 0-1 etc also of course average odds on these CS is also important as these tend to be shorter you may hit higher strike % but make less due to unappealing odds... though from what I see from all this you have it covered, I will just stop being impatient and wait until you get it sorted (My thoughts best not to rush anyways plenty of time.... says me...) but anyways I will be able to think up a real answer tomorrow... 4 now

in less time than I expected - i've gotten over 5300 results between yesterday and the 6th of January, and i am now in the position to provide some statistics for the correct scores!! And I've spotted something pretty nice, although i'd love for a "CS-Hog" such as yourself to have a look too....

firstly, i ran the CS check on every result that my system has ever predicted, and here's what came up:

SCORE PREDICTION		0 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 3	0 - 4	1 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 3	2 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 2	2 - 3	3 - 0	3 - 1
AVERAGE ODDS		7.31	6.00	7.00	8.00	---	6.50	5.85	---	---	7.00	7.50	14.00	---	8.00	---
PREDICTIONS		268	638	58	4	1	776	2116	210	6	82	205	29	1	3	10
CORRECT		27	50	5	0	0	97	216	13	0	8	21	1	0	0	1
INCORRECT		241	588	53	4	1	679	1900	197	6	74	184	28	1	3	9
STRIKE RATE		10%	8%	9%	0%	0%	13%	10%	6%	0%	10%	10%	3%	0%	0%	10%
STAKED		268.00	638.00	58.00	4.00	1.00	776.00	2116.00	210.00	6.00	82.00	205.00	29.00	1.00	3.00	10.00
RETURN		197.37	300.00	35.00	0.00	0.00	630.50	1263.60	0.00	0.00	56.00	0.00	14.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PROFIT / LOSS		-70.63	-338.00	-23.00	-4.00	-1.00	-145.50	-852.40	-210.00	-6.00	-26.00	-205.00	-15.00	-1.00	-3.00	-10.00
YIELD		-26%	-53%	-40%	-100%	-100%	-19%	-40%	-100%	-100%	-32%	-100%	-52%	-100%	-100%	-100%

as you can see, initially, it looks like we might get some luck going into the 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 markets.

i decide to try out the CS in conjunction with the ratings my system produces, so i went for all matches that are rated higher than (or equal to) 20:

RATING ABOVE 20		0 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 3	0 - 4	0 - 5	1 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 3	1 - 4	1 - 5	2 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 2
AVERAGE ODDS		7.31	6.00	7.00	8.00	---	---	6.50	5.85	---	---	---	---	7.00	7.50	14.00
PREDICTIONS		5	74	31	4	1	---	130	83	33	2	---	---	54	42	1
CORRECT		0	8	5	0	0	---	19	6	4	0	---	---	5	7	0
INCORRECT		5	66	26	4	1	---	111	77	29	2	---	---	49	35	1
STRIKE RATE		0%	11%	16%	0%	0%	---	15%	7%	12%	0%	---	---	9%	17%	0%
STAKED