Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[lunatism]

"An overnight dusting of snow means that a 10 am pitch inspection will take place"

i WISH it was easier to know if a game was off or not, i know that the odds are so low, bla bla bla, and it's not like i bet on it anyway (still paper testing), but if only for the purposes of this thread....hurry up guys and decide

i won't be posting until after 1pm, since i'm off for a bit to do some stuff.....incase folks wonder about the on/off situation with this game

[lunatism]

right - game on

[lunatism]

not too impressed with how things turned out today.....but that's just me being odd i guess Two games were postponed (Skelmersdale & Chasetown), due to bad weather and bad traffic, and somehow Bognor managed to beat a poor Lewes team.....

But Horsham & Buckie won to "fix" the day, and being one the "new breed" of selections, it was important Buckie did, to leep the strike rate up at 100%! Of course, the Lewes loss caused the other to fall slightly, but that's footy I guess.

I know that Buckie was a low one - so damn low I almost didn't bother, but I thought I might aswell show ALL the matches predicted - just so that you guys can see everything that comes out (basically i'm saying that ignoring these low ones also ignores potential losses or wins that will count towards the magical 150 i'm looking for!).

anyway...so in summary, (due to postponements) today only a 1.20 & a 1.18 won - not really that special or out of the ordinary

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
02/02/08	English Northern Premier League - First Division: North (UniBond)	Skelmersdale United	v	Chorley FC	P - P	P - P	P - P	P - P
02/02/08	English Southern Football League - Division One: Midlands (British Gas)	Chasetown FC	v	Berkhamsted Town FC	P - P	P - P	P - P	P - P
02/02/08	English National League Conference - South	Lewes FC	v	Bognor Regis Town FC	0 - 1	---	---	0.00
02/02/08	English Isthmian Premier Division (Ryman)	Horsham FC	v	Leyton FC	5 - 1	---	YES	9.44
02/02/08	Scottish Highland League	Buckie Thistle	v	Lossiemouth Football Club	3 - 1	---	YES	7.83

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	106.81
TOTAL STAKED	126.53
NUMBER OF BETS	20
WINNING BETS	15
LOSING BETS	5
STRIKE RATE	75.00%
YIELD	5%
PROFIT / LOSS	6.81
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.44
CORRECT SCORE	14% (3/21)
CORRECT MARGIN	14% (3/21)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	60% (9/15)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	33% (5/15)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	7% (1/15)
HOME PERFORMANCE	74% (14/19)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	100% (1/1)

and now - the stats for the new ratings i'm trialling:

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	116.62
TOTAL STAKED	62.68
NUMBER OF BETS	10
WINNING BETS	10
LOSING BETS	0
STRIKE RATE	100.00%
YIELD	27%
PROFIT / LOSS	16.62
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.27
CORRECT SCORE	20% (2/10)
CORRECT MARGIN	20% (2/10)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	67% (4/6)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	33% (2/6)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	0% (0/6)
HOME PERFORMANCE	100% (9/9)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	100% (1/1)

[The Hat Man]

Hey, congratulations on the system - looks really promising!

Thought you should know that the Skelmersdale match went ahead today with the home side scraping a 7-0 win! I guess that just about covers the handicap...

Keep up the good work.

http://skemutdfc.proboards20.com/ind...ead=1201973158

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by The Hat Man

Hey, congratulations on the system - looks really promising!

thanks...early stages yet though - but i'm hoping it can carry on doing the business

Originally Posted by The Hat Man

Thought you should know that the Skelmersdale match went ahead today

that's really odd - i was on the Unibond website, and that game was listed as postponed, i didn't think to check up anywhere else as I didn't see the point (i mean, if Unibond can't get it right, then we're all doomed! ). But that's fantastic - Skelmersdale, just about managed to beat Chorley. And that is also one of the "orange seletions", which keeps that at 100% too. So below are the updated stats:

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	113.79
TOTAL STAKED	134.12
NUMBER OF BETS	21
WINNING BETS	16
LOSING BETS	5
STRIKE RATE	76.19%
YIELD	10%
PROFIT / LOSS	13.79
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.44
CORRECT SCORE	14% (3/22)
CORRECT MARGIN	14% (3/22)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	63% (10/16)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	31% (5/16)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	6% (1/16)
HOME PERFORMANCE	75% (15/20)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	100% (1/1)

and the orange lot:

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	123.60
TOTAL STAKED	70.27
NUMBER OF BETS	11
WINNING BETS	11
LOSING BETS	0
STRIKE RATE	100.00%
YIELD	34%
PROFIT / LOSS	23.60
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.34
CORRECT SCORE	18% (2/11)
CORRECT MARGIN	18% (2/11)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	71% (5/7)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	29% (2/7)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	0% (0/7)
HOME PERFORMANCE	100% (10/10)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	100% (1/1)

Big thanks to YOU - The Hat Man, for pointing this out to me! A great first post for you, and a BIG WELLCOME to PL

[lunatism]

ok, not too much for today - but here we go, at least these ones are less likely to be postponed (weather's too good, lucky sods). 3 orange selections and one normal selection:

DATE

LEAGUE

FIXTURE

RATING

LEAGUE

PREDICTION

SELECTION

STRENGTH

F

AH

ODDS

STAKE

BOOKIE

03/02/08

Italian Serie A

Inter Milan

v

Empoli FC

35

1 v 19

2 - 0

H

8

1.18

---

---

8.82

bWin (F)

03/02/08

Italian Serie A

Juventus Football Club S.p.A.

v

Cagliari Calcio

32

3 v 20

2 - 0

H

7

1.20

1.50 (0: 1 1/2)

1.79

7.97

Pinnacle (AH)

03/02/08

Spanish Tercera Division - Group 9 (Andalucía Oriental y Melilla)

CD Roquetas

v

UD Almeria II

31

1 v 19

2 - 0

H

7

1.25

---

---

7.97

bWin (F)

03/02/08

Spanish Tercera Division - Group 17 (Aragón)

CD Sariñena

v

SD Ejea

29

10 v 1

0 - 2

A

6

1.50

---

---

6.83

bWin (F)

good luck!

[lunatism]

Right - summary for yesterday, in short.....disappointing! Inter could only scrape a 1 nil win (did the red card affect that? i don't know.....), Juve drew (i watched that one....lacked any creativity going forward), and my two from the Spanish Tercera both lost! That means that the day saw a 25% strike rate, and that both yield shrink and the "orange selections" have tasted their first "defeats". But no worries I'll be looking over the ratings and the accompanying data to see if there was any way in which I could have forseen these results

Results below:

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
03/02/08	Italian Serie A	Inter Milan	v	Empoli FC	1 - 0	---	YES	10.41
03/02/08