Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[Grex]

Good luck, Loon with today´s selections, Loon .... I´m sure the yield will turn round soon.

Pinnacle have put the Spanish game back on line... -1.75 @ 2.28. It´s a bit worrying that the odds have drifted from 1.93 to 2.28... but have faith . Might be worth waiting to see if the AH drops to -1.5 (don´t know when the KO is - Pinnacle quote start times in in terms of some Far Eastern time zone).

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Grex

Good luck, Loon with today´s selections, Loon .... I´m sure the yield will turn round soon.

Pinnacle have put the Spanish game back on line... -1.75 @ 2.28. It´s a bit worrying that the odds have drifted from 1.93 to 2.28... but have faith . Might be worth waiting to see if the AH drops to -1.5 (don´t know when the KO is - Pinnacle quote start times in in terms of some Far Eastern time zone).

(kicked off at 11:30am i wrote it in the last post!)

Too late for me to give a revised selection for this one, but the reason I said take -1.75 was because a 2-0 gives half return and half at odds (e.g 10 would be £5 back and now, due to the odds being raised, 11.40 return, which is a profit of 6.40).

And by 11:30am, I meant 10:30am (again, the hour difference on www.oddsoddsodds.com has caught me out!!). BUT, there is of course a point to this particular post, to let you all know that the game has finished, Portugalete won 3-1, which of course is the scenario I mentioned, since my recommended stake was 7.99, the return is 12.91 (profit of 4.92). It IS worth pointing out too, that because the odds came out higher than they were initially, the strength of this selection decreased from 7 to 6.

But anybody who back the Ah -1.75 should be happy at least.

...the revised selection would have looked:

20/04/08

Spanish Tercera Division - Group 4 (Euskadi)

Club Portugalete

v

CD Vitoria

28

1 v 20

2 - 0

H

75%

24%

1%

LSS

6

1.20

1.75 (0: 1 3/4)

2.23

7.99

Pinnacle (AH)

since i did suggest i'd take this if it came up, i'll include it in the results

[888]

Hi lunatism,

I followed you on Vejle since it is the only match available in my book. Nice pick. Thanks

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by 888

Hi lunatism,

I followed you on Vejle since it is the only match available in my book. Nice pick. Thanks

Glad you profited from that - 5-1 does make it seem nice and tidy, huh?! Been trying to find the result for the Croatian game, but I can't, so i'll have to wait until soccerway post that before I can put up the stats on here.

[Grex]

Good call on Portugalete and Velje

Originally Posted by lunatism

Been trying to find the result for the Croatian game, but I can't, so i'll have to wait until soccerway post that before I can put up the stats on here.

I don´t know the result of the Croatian match.... but they didn´t cover the AH (the small stake I put on it was lost).

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Grex

Good call on Portugalete and Velje



I don´t know the result of the Croatian match.... but they didn´t cover the AH (the small stake I put on it was lost).

just checked it, they won 2-0, you should have had half your stake returned?

[lunatism]

Well, if you had taken ALL selections for today, you should be in profit folks (worked out for me anyway....). And now yes, stats did get a little improvement too, which is of course a good thing. Would have liked to see Belisce get battered, but being will have to suffice

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
20/04/08	Croatian 2. HNL	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	v	NK Belisce	2 - 0	YES	---	3.71
20/04/08	Danish 1st Division	Vejle Boldklub Elitefodbold A/S	v	Ølstykke FC	5 - 1	---	YES	14.78
20/04/08	Spanish Tercera Division - Group 4 (Euskadi)	Club Portugalete	v	CD Vitoria	3 - 1	---	YES	12.91

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	122.16
TOTAL STAKED	221.08
NUMBER OF BETS	37
WINNING BETS	31
LOSING BETS	6
STRIKE RATE	83.78%
YIELD	10%
PROFIT / LOSS	22.16
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.57
CORRECT SCORE	15% (6/39)
CORRECT MARGIN	28% (11/39)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	76% (16/21)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	19% (4/21)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	5% (1/21)
HOME PERFORMANCE	83% (30/36)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	N/A
DURATION:	43 Days
LONGEST WINNING STREAK:	13
LONGEST LOSING STREAK:	2
CURRENT RUN:	2 Wins

next batch of selections aren't due to surface until Saturday i'm afraid...but if any midweek developments, i'll keep you guys posted

[Grex]

Originally Posted by lunatism

just checked it, they won 2-0, you should have had half your stake returned?

Pinnacle definitely kept all my stake on the AH -2.25 bet.... I´ll have to take it up with them. Which site lists results of this rather "minor" league?

[WOW.... now I have three rotating balls ..... I´ll have to change my signature ]

[The Hat Man]

Quite right Loon - the badgers at Pinnacle blundered on the Croatian game and have since refunded half my stake

I'd soon go off them if they weren't the only company to offer handicap prices on some of these ludicrous fixtures!

Keep up the good work.

[lunatism]

anyone who is still having trouble with pinnacle should just quote:
http://www.nk-hrvatskidragovoljac.hr/rezultati.asp
in their complaint - since that's the club website for the home side and it clearly states on there that they won 2-0.

glad that you (the hat man) got the half back, and I hope that they've done the same for you Grex, aswell as ANYONE else out there.

Even though they made they mistake, at least they were able to deal with it quickly in a professional manner. With me, i didn't even notice until Grex pointed it out, since i had some other winners on there and wasn't keeping track of how much came in! As soon as i told them they sorted it out briskly, unlike some bookies who would have taken quite a bit longer (won't mention names, but with more than a few).

[lunatism]

tricky day today, two of the games on unbettable, and the one game has been put high up at an AH of -2.5, which is tought because the home side have been pretty free scoring at home, while head to head record shows these games have only once finished above 2 goals (from 12 games), and 8 of those were 1 goal wins or a draw. And even though bottom of form table, they haven't eaxctly been thrashed.

home side also missing out a few key players for this game, they away side might gain confidence from this and dig in deep to prevent a rout.

so you might guess from my all that crap i just wrote - i'm leaning towards going against the AH (taking +2.5). I don't quite fancy it enough to put cash on that though. So i'll have to take it easy with the low fixed odds

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			RATING	LEAGUE	PREDICTION	SELECTION	1	X	2	SYSTEM	STRENGTH	FIXED	AH	AH ODDS	STAKE	BOOKIE
26/04/08	French CFA 2 - Groupe A	Olympique Noisy-le-Sec Banlieue 93	v	AS Taissy	33	1 v 16	3 - 0	H	78%	20%	2%	LSS	7	---	---	---	---	---
26/04/08	Serbian Srpska Liga - Istok	Dubocica	v	OFK Nis	27	2 v 16	3 - 0	H	75%	22%	3%	LSS	6	---	---	---	---	---
26/04/08	Singaporean S-League	Home United FC	v	Balestier Khalsa FC	35	3 v 12	2 - 0	H	69%	23%	8%	LSS	8	1.12	---		9.47	bWin (F)

HOME UNITED HAVE AN EARLY KICKOFF

[888]

Bad luck on the loss in S-League mate. A bit too late to post this, but wasn't able to come online yesterday.

http://thestar.com.my/sports/story.a...089&sec=sports

S-League is a very dangerous league to bet in. It is a well-known league for fixing down here in South East Asia

Anyway don't be too disheartened on that bet. Keep up the good work

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by 888