Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[the duck]

Originally Posted by lunatism

haha - it was nagging by a certain few guys on the PL Scroller thread that did it i think The one Austrailian league that is covered is the A-League, but i just noticed (as in....you mentioned it and I checked them out again on soccerway) that soccerway now have 6 additional leagues (inc. Victorian Premier League). So at some midweek point (when there are no selections for a few days). I'll bring those into the system too. And i'll consider bringing in some of the South American ones too (but most likely I won't bother with them)

Lunatism in all honesty i would be very wary of even touching VPL or incorporating it into a system. I have a few mates who play in it and it is far from an unprofessional league that can be counted upon to be predicatable. But if you do decide to incorporate VPL make sure it is the lowest Australian League you touch because after that it is danger.

Just thought i'd save you from some possible danger. cheers.

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by the duck

Lunatism in all honesty i would be very wary of even touching VPL or incorporating it into a system. I have a few mates who play in it and it is far from an unprofessional league that can be counted upon to be predicatable. But if you do decide to incorporate VPL make sure it is the lowest Australian League you touch because after that it is danger.

Just thought i'd save you from some possible danger. cheers.

well that's as good a reason as any to avoid it But would you say that the due to it being far from predictable, that the bookies would offer higher odds?

[the duck]

Originally Posted by lunatism

well that's as good a reason as any to avoid it But would you say that the due to it being far from predictable, that the bookies would offer higher odds?

In all honesty i laughed the first time i saw these matches being offered. They are unpredicatble in terms of looking at form and streaks but predictable if you know your stuff and attend matches.

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by the duck

In all honesty i laughed the first time i saw these matches being offered. They are unpredicatble in terms of looking at form and streaks but predictable if you know your stuff and attend matches.

rght, well i guess the best way to look at this would be to test this out them. I know this might be a hard question to answer, but since i work with numbers and percentages.....if you believe streaks and form dont lend a hand to predicted these games, and that local knowledge is the key - what percentage of accuracy do you think you would have over AI on this then? eg.....my system says home win, you say draw - what percentage of the time do you think you would be right and my system wrong?

reason i ask is the following, if you were able to provide me with your personal predictions for these games, i would be able to contrast these with what my system would generate (i would of course pass these predictions onto you for scrutinisation aswell), and then after a set number of games we'd be able to see whether it was worth including certain leagues or not.

[the duck]

Originally Posted by lunatism

rght, well i guess the best way to look at this would be to test this out them. I know this might be a hard question to answer, but since i work with numbers and percentages.....if you believe streaks and form dont lend a hand to predicted these games, and that local knowledge is the key - what percentage of accuracy do you think you would have over AI on this then? eg.....my system says home win, you say draw - what percentage of the time do you think you would be right and my system wrong?

reason i ask is the following, if you were able to provide me with your personal predictions for these games, i would be able to contrast these with what my system would generate (i would of course pass these predictions onto you for scrutinisation aswell), and then after a set number of games we'd be able to see whether it was worth including certain leagues or not.

Yeah that would be good. If you pm me your email adress and we will talk later in the week when the full matches are up.

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by the duck

Yeah that would be good. If you pm me your email adress and we will talk later in the week when the full matches are up.

well first off i'll need to add the leagues to processing spreadsheet (which will take ages....and i've not the time until the weekend since i'm travelling around a bit from tomorrow), but as soon as i've done that, i'll get in touch.

[888]

Good thread and system, keep it up!

Just popped in to say hi

Looking forward for your next post lunatism!

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by 888

Good thread and system, keep it up!

Just popped in to say hi

Looking forward for your next post lunatism!

thanks for the interest! unfortunately, next group of selections won't be until the weekend. Good news is that three of them are VERY STRONG predictions, so should be something to smile about

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by palaceman

I wasn't poking fun at happygooner. They were very unlucky today. I just felt he had every reason not to be happy. That's how I would feel.

And yes, I'm a Palace season ticket holder - a sad individual who makes 150 mile round trips to home games. Difficult to see how they can remain 6th though, with their next two games both being away - to Hull & Watford - whilst Wolves have 4 home games left.

More like resigned to the worstgooner if i'm honest haha!!

[palaceman]

LOL

And as WBA beat Wolves tonight, I'm HappyPalaceman.

(At least until Saturday)

[lunatism]

and what should that make me then? (a Wolves fan who couldn't quite get some tickets for last night)......an AnnoyedLunatism? (this could carry on all season i guess )

[palaceman]

Really sorry mate. I had no idea you were a Wolves fan. I've actually got quite a soft spot for Wolves as I've known their Assistant Manager for a number of years.

I see you have the good sense not to try and predict any match in The Championship

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by palaceman

Really sorry mate. I had no idea you were a Wolves fan. I've actually got quite a soft spot for Wolves as I've known their Assistant Manager for a number of years.

I see you have the good sense not to try and predict any match in The Championship

no worries - can't apologise for being happy that these go your way in one match or another, especially when the league is so unpredictable at present! My friend's dad was the academy director, before he went off to Bolton to be Assistant there, and Wolves train at my old school (so i always used to see them and met most of the team)......

but anyway - can never get any championship games in for LSS because the league must be one of the most tricky leagues to pin down in the world at present. That said, it did my ratings suggested West Brom would sneak a victory a Molinuex

[lunatism]

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			RATING	LEAGUE	PREDICTION	SELECTION	1	X	2	SYSTEM	STRENGTH	FIXED	AH	AH ODDS	STAKE	BOOKIE
19/04/08	Danish 2nd Division - West	Esbjerg FB II	v	Amager Boldklub af 1970	26	6 v 16	2 - 0	H	71%	18%	11%	LSS	7	1.30	---	---	7.94	bWin (F)
19/04/08	Scottish Highland League	Deveronvale Football Club	v	Fort William Football Club	28	4 v 15	4 - 0	H	71%	21%	7%	LSS	7	---	---	---	---	---
19/04/08	Serbian Srpska Liga - Vojvodina	Zlatibor Voda Horgos	v	Jedinstvo Stara Pazova	34	1 v 16	3 - 0	H	75%	23%	2%	LSS	8	---	---	---	---	---

couldn't find odds for the 2nd and 3rd selections (although normally would have been able to). bWin & pinnacle DO offer the highland league, so i guess they are shying away from losing cash perhaps?!

not sure about the Zlatibor fixture

But at least the odds are reasonable for the Esbjerg game, with a 2-0 prediction. Only gets a rating of 26 (cutoff point), so be wary of that. But they should really beat a Boldklub side who have conceded 8 without reply in their last 3 away games (and out of 8 away games this season, they have scored only twice!)

GOOD LUCK

[stuart]

Deveronvale won 11-0

Maybe it was closer than the scoreline suggests

I've been reading this thread for a while now and I'm really impressed with how good these selections are. All the best for future selections.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by stuart

Deveronvale won 11-0

Maybe it was closer than the scoreline suggests

I've been reading this thread for a while now and I'm really impressed with how good these selections are. All the best for future selections.

Did you find odds for it?

[stuart]

I didnt find odds, just saw the result on the highland league website a few hours ago. Usually these types of scores only happen in the early stages of the league but im not complaining.

[lunatism]

not too pleased about the likes of bWin, who have been (and still are) coverning the Higland League...yet the game today was not there! And to finish 11-0 is of course great, and in hindsight, let's say I would have taken the AH (beecause against Fort William, you really have to these days), so they've cost us a few bob today. It's especially annoying when a result doesn't go as planned (as the Esjberg today)...not sure about the Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (in terms of whether it SHOULD have been covered or not), but that game finished 7-1...yep, another big win

some of you might argue that I should stick to top leagues to ensure coverage, but i'm not of that thinking - whatever the league is, if they have been covered in the past, it's not wrong for me to expect them to covered again!

anyway...enough of my minor disagreement with every bookie in the world who choses to cover selections only when they don't think the score might be huge.....

selections for today will trot along soon......

[lunatism]

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
19/04/08	Danish 2nd Division - West	Esbjerg FB II	v	Amager Boldklub af 1970	1 - 1	---	---	0.00
19/04/08	Scottish Highland League	Deveronvale Football Club	v	Fort William Football Club	11 - 0	---	YES	No Bet
19/04/08	Serbian Srpska Liga - Vojvodina	Zlatibor Voda Horgos	v	Jedinstvo Stara Pazova	7 - 1	---	YES	No Bet