Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[stewartd14]

Originally Posted by lunatism

wanted to give you guys some good news and announce a Wednesday selection (for the first time in ages), but it seems that the weather has gotten the better of the Keith Rovers home game, so we'll have to wait until the weekend now

Keep the faith mate. This has plenty of potential and looks to be going well.

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by stewartd14

Keep the faith mate. This has plenty of potential and looks to be going well.

let's hope it continues!

[lunatism]

DATE

LEAGUE

FIXTURE

RATING

LEAGUE

PREDICTION

SELECTION

1

X

2

SYSTEM

STRENGTH

FIXED

AH

AH ODDS

STAKE

BOOKIE

12/04/08

German Regionalliga - Nord

Rot Weiss Ahlen

v

VfB Lübeck

27

2 v 18

2 - 0

H

71%

25%

4%

LSS

6

1.25

1.50 (0: 1 1/2)

1.69

7.80

Pinnacle (AH)

12/04/08

Spanish Tercera Division - Group 13 (Región de Murcia)

Real Murcia II

v

CD Alquerías

29

2 v 19

2 - 0

H

71%

26%

3%

LSS

7

1.13

1.75 (0: 1 3/4)

1.71

8.11

Pinnacle (AH)

as far as i know, only the 1 potential selection for Sunday, but we'll see what happens. As usual, pinnacle are changing their minds over the AH offered on one of my selections, I think that by kick off the Murcia AH will either be shorter (down from 1.75) or they will change the AH to something else...which would indicate they think along same lines - which is always a positive thing i guess!

Since both AH are supporting my score predictions, i don't think i need to explain any reasoning behind those choices, both should be wins of 2-0 AT LEAST, we'll see what the afternoon brings though!

GOOD LUCK!!

[lunatism]

me and Goon we wondering if the Rot-Weiss Ahlen game was postponed because we couldn't find it on bwin after i'd posted the selections. But it's very much on, and at half time the score is 2-0, so very much good news if they can "hang on" (or even better, improve upon) their lead......

Murcia AH did change, it now sits at -2.50 with odds of 1.73. If you managed to get the earlier odds (as I did), good for you, if not i'd give this match a new strength of 6 (dropped from 7), but they should still be able to make the 3 goal win that -2.50 suggests. If you're a nervous soul, take the fixed odds at 1.12/1.13 - it's not exactly value, but this time aren't exactly going to struggle against a team who lost 7-0 in their last game (at home too) while they themselves won 6-0 in their last-but-one home fixture!

[alexmac]

Crikey - how did I miss this thread....? Fantastic effort loony! Keep up the great work and all the best with your picks.

[lunatism]

sorry folks - really frustrating....Ahlen do their job, and then I find Murcia really put in a poor performace and don't even win

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
12/04/08	German Regionalliga - Nord	Rot Weiss Ahlen	v	VfB Lübeck	3 - 0	---	YES	13.19
12/04/08	Spanish Tercera Division - Group 13 (Región de Murcia)	Real Murcia II	v	CD Alquerías	2 - 2	---	---	0.00

no doubt the selection for today will perform fine...although the odds are bitterly low....i'll post if it's still available after the data updates

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	122.10
TOTAL STAKED	189.74
NUMBER OF BETS	32
WINNING BETS	27
LOSING BETS	5
STRIKE RATE	84.38%
YIELD	12%
PROFIT / LOSS	22.10
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.58
CORRECT SCORE	15% (5/33)
CORRECT MARGIN	27% (9/33)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	78% (14/18)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	17% (3/18)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	6% (1/18)
HOME PERFORMANCE	84% (27/32)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	N/A
DURATION:	35 Days
LONGEST WINNING STREAK:	13
LONGEST LOSING STREAK:	2
CURRENT RUN:	1 Losses

[dustbin2]

unlucky m8, end of season does throw up some dodgy results I had a bit of luck and only got on the German game as betfair didnt have the murcia one so made a bit of profit. System still looking strong...roll on next season Loon

[palaceman]

Originally Posted by dustbin2

I had a bit of luck and only got on the German game

I suspect a lot of us only got on the German game as (by the time most tried on Pinnacle) the other match required a rather unappealing three goal win.

No system is infallible, Loon. The odd reverse is inevitable. The measure of a good system (as this seems to be) is how well it overcomes the reverses. Keep it up

[happygooner]

Not to worry loon, you still got an 84% s/r with average odds around 1.6

Most people would kill for that haha!

[lunatism]

end of season factor is one reason why there are less selections from the UK lately, but i guess i can't spot (and avoid) them all. Good thing about this, is that it should run year round, and as soon as the Swedish/Norwegian/Russian leagues kick fully into their seasons, there should again be more selections throughout the week

[dustbin2]

Top news m8 wasnt looking forward to the end of the season, you any thoughts on the Austrailian leagues when all the major leagues are done? I had some success with them last year. Anyway congratulations on having your name up in lights on the forums scroll of honour Fame at last Loon

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by dustbin2

Top news m8 wasnt looking forward to the end of the season, you any thoughts on the Austrailian leagues when all the major leagues are done? I had some success with them last year. Anyway congratulations on having your name up in lights on the forums scroll of honour Fame at last Loon

haha - it was nagging by a certain few guys on the PL Scroller thread that did it i think The one Austrailian league that is covered is the A-League, but i just noticed (as in....you mentioned it and I checked them out again on soccerway) that soccerway now have 6 additional leagues (inc. Victorian Premier League). So at some midweek point (when there are no selections for a few days). I'll bring those into the system too. And i'll consider bringing in some of the South American ones too (but most likely I won't bother with them)

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by lunatism

haha - it was nagging by a certain few guys on the PL Scroller thread that did it i think The one Austrailian league that is covered is the A-League, but i just noticed (as in....you mentioned it and I checked them out again on soccerway) that soccerway now have 6 additional leagues (inc. Victorian Premier League). So at some midweek point (when there are no selections for a few days). I'll bring those into the system too. And i'll consider bringing in some of the South American ones too (but most likely I won't bother with them)

What about MLS?

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by happygooner

What about MLS?

i think there was a generally good reason why i chose not to include it before.....except it escapes me. i'll look into that again though

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by lunatism

i think there was a generally good reason why i chose not to include it before.....except it escapes me. i'll look into that again though

Probably because the quality isn't really there and you may as well as back schoolboy football haha!

Anyway, where are you mate?

Interesting data to share

[palaceman]

Time to change your User Name?