Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[lunatism]

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
25/03/08	Northern Irish Premier League	Glentoran FC	v	Limavady United FC	3 - 0	---	YES	14.29

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	132.09
TOTAL STAKED	119.19
NUMBER OF BETS	20
WINNING BETS	18
LOSING BETS	2
STRIKE RATE	90.00%
YIELD	27%
PROFIT / LOSS	32.09
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.67
CORRECT SCORE	19% (4/21)
CORRECT MARGIN	29% (6/21)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	73% (11/15)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	20% (3/15)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	7% (1/15)
HOME PERFORMANCE	90% (18/20)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	N/A
DURATION:	17 Days
LONGEST WINNING STREAK:	10
LONGEST LOSING STREAK:	1
CURRENT RUN:	10 Wins

A nice 3-0 for Glentoran here, didn't watch the game (I would have if I could, but instead stuck with the disappointing England v Poland U21 fixture), but 0-0 at half time might have had a few of you a little nervous i guess?!!! This win, and the loss for Cliftonville has seen Glentoran move up to 2nd in the league....good for them!

[Grex]

Originally Posted by lunatism

did you take the fixed odds or the handicap? I had some spare cash lying around at betfair, so i put it on the over 2.5 (well...if i'm taking -2 at pinnacle, then the obvious choice at betfair would be over 2.5) and made a bit from that too!

I risked the AH... shows the confidence I have in your selections . The only disadvantage of taking the OVERS option is, of course, that with a scoreline of 2-0 you would have recouped your stake back on the AH.... but the odds presumably would reflect this.

Keep up the great work

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Grex

I risked the AH... shows the confidence I have in your selections . The only disadvantage of taking the OVERS option is, of course, that with a scoreline of 2-0 you would have recouped your stake back on the AH.... but the odds presumably would reflect this.

Keep up the great work

too right, good thing it finished 3-0

[Samba_SamPa]

Read this whole thread in bits and pieces over the day, very impressive Lunatism.

Thought of a couple of questions earlier today, but can't remember one of them now

Neither were of much significance in the greater scheme of things, but I will ask the one I can remember anyway, just out of interest...

Do current league positions get factored into your calculations in any way, or is it just league performance? What I mean is for instance in League One, there are a few clubs who have had points docked and thus their league position has been affected by something other than their actual league performance.

Leeds with their 15pts back would be 3rd, as it is they are 8th, would that alter the recommended prediction in any way?

Hope you follow, I know what i mean lol

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Read this whole thread in bits and pieces over the day, very impressive Lunatism.

Thought of a couple of questions earlier today, but can't remember one of them now

Neither were of much significance in the greater scheme of things, but I will ask the one I can remember anyway, just out of interest...

Do current league positions get factored into your calculations in any way, or is it just league performance? What I mean is for instance in League One, there are a few clubs who have had points docked and thus their league position has been affected by something other than their actual league performance.

Leeds with their 15pts back would be 3rd, as it is they are 8th, would that alter the recommended prediction in any way?

Hope you follow, I know what i mean lol

Well, that's a good question And I did some research as while back into whether it would be effective to consider what the league position would be when calculating selections, and what I came up with was that there is greater accuracy when using the published league tables, as opposed to the "real" ones (how it should be). No idea why, but I guess it might be to do with particular aspirations associated with that position...eg if a team should be 3rd but their 8th - they aren't realistically fighting for top spot, they are fighting for playoffs, and their indset may come into it - but i wouldn't know i'm afraid.

I hope that answers your question! I DO look at league position, as I do a variety of other factors too, and I try to equally weight each one out so that things such as point deductions don't immediately rule them out, often a combination of things will.

Interested to hear your other question when it comes back to you!!

[Samba_SamPa]

Many thanks for your prompt response, it does indeed answer my question. You may, perhaps, be glad to know I have remembered the other question I had:

What happens at the start of a league season when factors such as recent form and league performance aren't applicable? Is there a 'warm up' period at the beginning of a season when you take a back seat and let those statistics build into something concrete?

Again, must say how interesting this thread is, and one I am most certainly going to be taking note of throughout my stay at PL

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Many thanks for your prompt response, it does indeed answer my question. You may, perhaps, be glad to know I have remembered the other question I had:

What happens at the start of a league season when factors such as recent form and league performance aren't applicable? Is there a 'warm up' period at the beginning of a season when you take a back seat and let those statistics build into something concrete?

Again, must say how interesting this thread is, and one I am most certainly going to be taking note of throughout my stay at PL

Great - another good question...luckily i have the answer at hand I not only have a warm up period of at least 10 games (6 in some leagues...depends on number of teams in league), i also have a warm down period too. When a team has reached a certain percentage of the "home allowance" (my predicted number of games they should be playing at home this season based on past seasons and number of teams in league....you might wonder why ineed to calculate this - but it changes in some of the other worldly leagues), it is "ignored". Even if the rating was 40, it would still be ignored, too many disruptive factors can come into play and through testing got some nasty shock results through it couple of seasons back!

...and i'm glad you find my thread helpful!

[Samba_SamPa]

Many thanks Lunatism, a portion of my betting bank is awaiting your next selection[s]

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa

Many thanks Lunatism, a portion of my betting bank is awaiting your next selection[s]

haha.....no presuure then, huh?

[lunatism]

let's hope that pinnacle do us a favour and provide odds for some of tomorrows games, because today is just fixed odds from bWin, and they are not too attractive in my opinion. But i'm just doing "what the system tells me to"

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			RATING	LEAGUE	PREDICTION	SELECTION	1	X	2	SYSTEM	STRENGTH	FIXED	AH	AH ODDS	STAKE	BOOKIE
29/03/08	Polish 3.Liga - Group 2	Kotwica Kolobrzeg	v	Rodlo Kwidzyn	31	3 v 16	2 - 0	H	70%	23%	6%	LSS	7.25	1.20	---		9.58	bWin (F)
29/03/08	Serbian Srpska Liga - Istok	Sindjelic Nis	v	Rudar Alpos Aleksinacki Rudnici	34	1 v 15	2 - 0	H	74%	23%	3%	LSS	7.33	---	---	---	---	---
29/03/08	Slovakian Super Liga	MŠK Žilina	v	AS Trencin	33	1 v 12	2 - 0	H	76%	22%	2%	LSS	7.50	1.10	---		9.91	bWin (F)

GOOD LUCK!!!

[lunatism]

slight change to today's selections...thank goodness - i was able to find AH on one of these this morning, so that will CHANGE to AH -2, and i'll post it shortly

[lunatism]

DATE

LEAGUE

FIXTURE

RATING

LEAGUE

PREDICTION

SELECTION

1

X

2

SYSTEM

STRENGTH

FIXED

AH

AH ODDS

STAKE

BOOKIE

29/03/08

Polish 3.Liga - Group 2

Kotwica Kolobrzeg

v

Rodlo Kwidzyn

31

3 v 16

2 - 0

H

70%

23%

6%

LSS

7

1.20

---

9.58

bWin (F)

29/03/08

Serbian Srpska Liga - Istok

Sindjelic Nis

v

Rudar Alpos Aleksinacki Rudnici

34

1 v 15

2 - 0