Lunatism’s Statistical Selections (lss)

[lunatism]

since early this morning i have not been able to access this site, and so i was not able to post my selection for today. i will post it now though, these WILL NOT count towards my yield/strike rate, etc, but just so you know.....

this is WHAT i would have posted:

DATE

LEAGUE

FIXTURE

RATING

LEAGUE

PREDICTION

SELECTION

STRENGTH

FIXED ODDS

AH

ODDS

STAKE

27/01/2008

French CFA - Groupe B

FC Sochaux Montbeliard II

v

Union Sportive Raonnaise

26

3 v 18

2 - 0

H

7

1.35 (bWin)

---

---

6.86

Despite the 2-0 prediction, can't quite endorse a -1.25 on pinnacle for this match, there were a few other matches (but won't post them as "almost games" due to them being in the Dutch Hoofdklasse and that not being available and not sure if it ever will be.

...erm, i guess i should wish sochaux luck - not that anything in particular is riding on it

[lunatism]

pity about that - not only a 2-0 win for Sochaux, but they met the AH too....and I couldn't POST!!!!

anyway, onto the next...........

[palaceman]

Well done anyway.

And besides, it's only "practice" at the moment, so ignore irritations like you've had

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by palaceman

Well done anyway.

And besides, it's only "practice" at the moment, so ignore irritations like you've had

i guess you're right - i should consider it nothing but a minor irritation in the "grand scheme of things"

[lunatism]

Right, here we go for today then. I'll definately have this in one on in time! Bet365 are offering marginally better odds for this one (1.40), but i'm loyal to bwin (for the moment)

DATE

LEAGUE

FIXTURE

RATING

LEAGUE

PREDICTION

SELECTION

STRENGTH

FIXED ODDS

AH

ODDS

STAKE

28/01/08

Italian Serie C2 - Girone B

AC Reggiana 1919

v

FC Esperia Viareggio

31

1 v 12

2 - 0

H

7

1.35 (BWIN)

---

---

7.39

[lunatism]

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
28/01/08	Italian Serie C2 - Girone B	AC Reggiana 1919	v	FC Esperia Viareggio	3 - 0	---	YES	9.98

A nice 3-0 victory for Reggiana, not quite the 2-0 I predicted - but one better, so i should smile about that i guess!

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	108.17
TOTAL STAKED	88.27
NUMBER OF BETS	15
WINNING BETS	11
LOSING BETS	4
STRIKE RATE	73.33%
YIELD	9%
PROFIT / LOSS	8.17
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.50
CORRECT SCORE	19% (3/16)
CORRECT MARGIN	19% (3/16)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	55% (6/11)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	36% (4/11)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	9% (1/11)
HOME PERFORMANCE	71% (10/14)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	100% (1/1)

seems there will be a couple for later today (Arsenal / Oxford), i'll post these as soon as i can

[lunatism]

DATE

LEAGUE

FIXTURE

RATING

LEAGUE

PREDICTION

SELECTION

STRENGTH

FIXED ODDS

AH

ODDS

STAKE

29/01/08

English Southern Football League - Division One: South & West (British Gas)

Oxford City FC

v

Andover FC

35

2 v 19

2 - 0

H

8

1.25

---

---

8.11

29/01/08

English Premiership

Arsenal Football Club

v

Newcastle United Football Club

29

2 v 12

2 - 0

H

7

1.30

---

---

7.3

Two very straightforward-looking matches today - on paper, both should be strong wins for the two home sides.

[lunatism]

although i said they should be strong home wins, i'm just not comfortable taking the -1.50 AH for either of these matches, since I think that even though Arsenal & Oxford should batter their opposition, it could still end up being a close scoreline....although I would rather it wasn't!

[lunatism]

oh ye, i forgot to add that BOTH odds are from bwin...this will generally be the norm for the nether regions of UK football, but just thought i'd mention it again anyway

[palaceman]

Do you ever consider a double in a situation like this?

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by palaceman

Do you ever consider a double in a situation like this?

I would probably take it as a double for sure - but only if I was highly confident about both games, and even though Arsenal won the last 3-0, I just can't shake whatever doubts are in my mind about this game (otherwise I would have recommended the AH). There is onliy one bookie on the net who you could get this double with anyway - bWin

I'd say the way to go with these recommendations and doubles, is that if the rating is above (or including) 30, then it has an extremely high chance of being successful.....and why do I say this? Well there's always a first, but upto this point (from my posts on this site), such matches have enjoyed at 100% strike rate. And from my testing prior to starting the thread, they had a 90% strike rate (they were just so few and far between that I decided to lower the criteria and 'up' the winning margin).

[lunatism]

DATE	LEAGUE	FIXTURE			REAL RESULT	CORRECT SCORE?	CORRECT WINNER?	RETURN
29/01/08	English Southern Football League - Division One: South & West (British Gas)	Oxford City FC	v	Andover FC	3 - 0	---	YES	10.14
29/01/08	English Premiership	Arsenal Football Club	v	Newcastle United Football Club	3 - 0	---	YES	9.49

Both teams performed as the stats said they would and both finished comfortable with 3 goals....what more could i ask for? (well...perhaps next time Arsenal and Oxford - do me a favour and only score TWO so my score prediction is spot on too!!!)

although this may change after I update my data later on, there will be no selections until Saturday....but we'll see what happens......

STARTING BANK	100.00
CURENT BANK	112.39
TOTAL STAKED	103.68
NUMBER OF BETS	17
WINNING BETS	13
LOSING BETS	4
STRIKE RATE	76.47%
YIELD	12%
PROFIT / LOSS	12.39
ADDITIONAL STATS
AVERAGE ODDS	1.47
CORRECT SCORE	17% (3/18)
CORRECT MARGIN	17% (3/18)
WINNING AT HALF TIME	62% (8/13)
DRAWING AT HALF TIME	31% (4/13)
LOSING AT HALF TIME	8% (1/13)
HOME PERFORMANCE	75% (12/16)
AWAY PERFORMANCE	100% (1/1)

[palaceman]

That's an impressive strike rate. If you can keep it anywhere near that, you'll certainly be laughing. Well done.

[lunatism]