Lower-League Totals Public Fade

[allthethings]

Overs are the one area of football betting that I've had some consistent success with. But the best success I've had has been since I stopped trying to cap games all over the map and focused just on the higher-scoring lower leagues (primarily England and Holland in the winter, and Austria, Denmark, Norway and Sweden in the summer).

Over time I realized that it just didn't make sense, most of the time, to put money on poorly paid lines (in spite of the logic it took me a long time to stop). And in the process of cutting down my possible plays to just those where the line was +100 or better (2.00 or better), I noticed something really interesting: The best-paid overs in these lower leagues seemed, again and again, to defy conventional wisdom and go over, even games that pitted two teams that neither scored nor conceded many goals.

Unfortunately, although I was loosely keeping track, I didn't save the closing lines that could have helped check this over time throughout Europe...if anyone knows where I can find a database of closing lines I'd much appreciate a head's up. But I finally did decide I'd start playing the one best-paid game in each of my three favorite England leagues (Leagues One and Two, and Blue Square Premier/Conference 1), and I kept track through February.

The results, admittedly a small sample that I can verify, have been encouraging:

2/23
L1 Barnet/Milton Keynes Dons +115 0-2
L2 Bournemouth/Cheltenham +106 2-1
EC Kidderminister/Salisbury +117 1-2

2/16
L1 Northampton/Gillingham +116 4-0
L2 Darlington/Mansfield +109 1-2
EC Farsley/Woking +118 3-0

2/12
L1 Carlisle/Huddersfield +106 2-1
L2 Mansfield/Morecambe +120 1-2
EC Grays/Rushden ppd

2/9
L1 Tranmere/Leyton +114 1-1
L2 Wycombe/Mansfield +116 1-2
EC Oxford/Histon +111 3-0

2/2
L1 Millwall/Doncaster +117 0-3
L2 Mansfield/Brentford +114 2-3

That's 11-2, and all games of better than even money ($100 bets would have you plus $1250 on your 11 wins and minus $200 on your two losses). If you're wondering why the first weekend (2/2) didn't include a Eng Conf game, it's because none of the lines on offer were for even money or better.

A couple things to throw in here. These are close to final lines, about 30 minutes before game time in most cases. In some cases the game I thought I was going to play either took a lot of overs money to go to -101 or worse, or enough unders money to drop the line on offer to O 2 -175 or something, and I didn't track what happened in those instances. In a couple of cases I had two games in the same league at exactly the same (best) price, so I capped them quickly and in both cases guessed right, while the ones I didn't choose went under.

Some of you may also ask why I didn't play every game at better than even money. The reason is I have learned that the more bets you take the more likely you are to lose. The other reason is I suspect this has just been a lucky streak, and if I played 12 games I'd go 6-6 at best.

But I think there's some logic to it. After the fact I checked the stats on these games and in almost every case the matchups weren't so terrible -- it was just the public perception of the matchup that suggested unders. I think that in the lower leagues the results are very unpredictable, and when the majority of bettors began to all think alike and drive the price of overs up, it suggests a good place to fade the public's idea of what should happen based on statistics or missings or current form, or whatever. It appears to me that value is created by enough bettors thinking they know what will happen in a league in which form swings wildly from week to week. Really, if you think about it, most of us lose money at this hobby, so if you can find games in which the money is all going in one direction, it should pay over time to bet the other way.

In any case, I'm going to use this space to keep track of these where possible...I am not always around to get the closing lines, but I will try.

[allthethings]

3/1
L1 Port Vale/Oldham - total Over 2½ (+111)
L2 Darlington/Brentford - total Over 2½ (+132)
EC Rushden and D/Woking - total Over 2½ (+106)

[allthethings]

Originally Posted by allthethings

3/1
L1 Port Vale/Oldham - total Over 2½ (+111) 0-3 FT
L2 Darlington/Brentford - total Over 2½ (+132) 3-1 FT
EC Rushden and D/Woking - total Over 2½ (+106) 2-1 FT

Make that 14-2.



Let me mention, though...Five minutes before the games Forest Green/Oxford went from O2 -177 to O 2.5 +117, so that might have been the game in EC if I'd waited...and luckily it wasn't, as it ended 0-0. I think this points out that you want to take the best-priced overs but not if the public is pushing the line up...

[allthethings]

Won't be any picks till Saturday of course, but I'd like to point out that after a weekend in which the top-priced overs cashed in Germany 2, Belgium, France, you name it, today there was only one better-than-evens overs available in Conference, Kidderminster-Stafford, and it was 3-0 inside of 20 minutes.

[nickbhoy172]

Well done mate looks like its going well so far, im just not really sure what you mean in your first post. Is this betting on over 2.5 and what is the +100n odd figures about? Excuse my ignorance its a bit too early in the morning for me, and well done so far

[allthethings]

Originally Posted by nickbhoy172

Well done mate looks like its going well so far, im just not really sure what you mean in your first post. Is this betting on over 2.5 and what is the +100n odd figures about? Excuse my ignorance its a bit too early in the morning for me, and well done so far

Sorry about the confusion, they're American odds...+100 (100 to win 100) is 2.00. +115 means you bet 100 to win 115.

These are the best-priced odds on offer for O 2.5 in all cases. I've been taking one game (the best-priced O 2.5) in each of the three leagues.

[klaymore79]

Originally Posted by allthethings

These are the best-priced odds on offer for O 2.5 in all cases. I've been taking one game (the best-priced O 2.5) in each of the three leagues.

You say the lower leagues, which ones are you actually doing? Just that going by your picks, I think there are a couple lower than what you're betting on just now.

Looking good though, will be keeping tabs.

Edit: Never mind, read closer, seen the leagues properly

[scukit]

good so far, best of luck, will be keeping tabs too

[nickbhoy172]

Originally Posted by allthethings

Sorry about the confusion, they're American odds...+100 (100 to win 100) is 2.00. +115 means you bet 100 to win 115.

These are the best-priced odds on offer for O 2.5 in all cases. I've been taking one game (the best-priced O 2.5) in each of the three leagues.

ah okay i understand the pricing now thanks. So when u say best priced overs is this the one with biggest odds? or one which u think is of best value?

[Semikings]

Looks interesting, I understand your logic and will be watching closely to

see how you get on

[allthethings]

Originally Posted by nickbhoy172

ah okay i understand the pricing now thanks. So when u say best priced overs is this the one with biggest odds? or one which u think is of best value?

Biggest odds. In the case of two games in one league with the same odds, I cap...or guess.

[allthethings]

Originally Posted by klaymore79

You say the lower leagues, which ones are you actually doing? Just that going by your picks, I think there are a couple lower than what you're betting on just now.

Looking good though, will be keeping tabs.

Edit: Never mind, read closer, seen the leagues properly

They're actually the lowest leagues that I can bet at my book...As an overs fan I've always liked Conference, but very few of those are available at even money.

[allthethings]

Eng League One
Soccer - Hartlepool/Gillingham - total Over 2½ (+104)
for the regulation time held on Mar 8 at 10:00am [pending]

Eng League Two
Soccer - Brentford/Macclesfield - total Over 2½ (+114)
for the regulation time held on Mar 8 at 10:00am [pending]

Eng Conference
Soccer - Farsley/Cambridge - total Over 2½ (-103)
for the regulation time held on Mar 8 at 10:00am [pending]

Playing the Farsley even though it didn't quite get to evens. Also, in League Two the Shrewsbury-Rotherham game is now +113...I'll check again at 10 minutes before game time...

[allthethings]

Originally Posted by allthethings

Eng League One
Soccer - Hartlepool/Gillingham - total Over 2½ (+104)
for the regulation time held on Mar 8 at 10:00am [pending] 4-0 WIN

Eng League Two
Soccer - Brentford/Macclesfield - total Over 2½ (+114)
for the regulation time held on Mar 8 at 10:00am [pending] 1-0 LOSS

Eng Conference
Soccer - Farsley/Cambridge - total Over 2½ (-103)
for the regulation time held on Mar 8 at 10:00am [pending] 2-1 WIN

Playing the Farsley even though it didn't quite get to evens. Also, in League Two the Shrewsbury-Rotherham game is now +113...I'll check again at 10 minutes before game time...

Now 16-3 in the past seven rounds.

[klaymore79]

I decided to try this as well, using Bet365 I had the Oldham-Tranmere in League 1, which had 4 goals, and the best I got for the Conference was the Kidderminster match, which had 1 goal. In League 2 the best odds were Chester-Wrexham who play tomorrow. Does anyone know where I can get previous odds for games to check the history on this?

[allthethings]

Originally Posted by klaymore79

I decided to try this as well, using Bet365 I had the Oldham-Tranmere in League 1, which had 4 goals, and the best I got for the Conference was the Kidderminster match, which had 1 goal. In League 2 the best odds were Chester-Wrexham who play tomorrow. Does anyone know where I can get previous odds for games to check the history on this?

The line at my book for the Oldham game was O2 @ -115, so you must have gotten quite the return on O 2.5...

I did a little counting of Eng Conf through the year...stats at http://www.football-data.co.uk/ ... and found while it wasn't 16-3 or anything, the best-priced overs did about as well as the worst-priced overs.

[allthethings]

Lower-League Totals Public Fade (16-3 since Feb. 1)

England League One
Soccer - Leeds/Cheltenham - total Over 2½ (+120)
for the regulation time held on Mar 11 at 2:45pm [pending]

England League Two
Soccer - Bury/Rotherham - total Over 2½ (+120)
for the regulation time held on Mar 11 at 2:45pm [pending]

Eng Conference
Soccer - Weymouth/Farsley - total Over 2½ (+105)
for the regulation time held on Mar 11 at 2:45pm [pending]

League Two hasn't totally shaken out yet...there's still a chance Notts County-Lincoln will be the official pick, but I'm taking Bury now. So...yes, I'm cheating. Is that so wrong?

[allthethings]

The lines have been very strange today...both my L1 and L2 bets are now in the O2, -180 range, whereas the current best prices for O 2.5, 10 minutes before kickoff, are Crewe/Port Vale +118 in L1, and Shrewsbury/Darlington +103 in L2. I'm going to leave my picks alone...

And at two minutes off Shrewsbury was +111 and Leeds was back to +117 for O 2.5, comparable to the Crewe line of +120...

[Grex]

Good thing you stuck to your original selections..... well done

I will try to do some back-testing on this system, and let you know the results.

[Darth Nader]

Looks like another profitable night with 2 of the 3 main picks coming in, nice going sir