Longshot-Favourite Bias - Rugby

[mcgin]

Wasps @ 1.05 Paddypower (1.02 generally)
Not really hitting 3% above the price, but think it's big enough. I think I'll aim for .02 above the average for anything < 1.1 as %'s don't seem to hold there.

[mcgin]

Another winner, don't expect this streak to last much longer, 90% strike rate is way too high

Total staked 1,731.63
Total returned 2,091.35
Yield 20.77%
Winners 19.00
Loosers 2.00
Strike Rate 90.48%
Current bank 5,359.72
Profit/Loss 359.72

[mcgin]

There was a little dribble of 1.26 for Newcastle today on Betfair. Doubt I'lll get the full stake matched so won't include it in the results

[mcgin]

Been a while, but 2 selections for today

Bristol 1.26 with Betfair (412pts) & Wasps 1.2 with Stan James (307pts)

[mcgin]

Wasps won, Bristol got called off.

Total staked 2,038.63
Total returned 2,459.75
Yield 20.66%
Winners 20.00
Loosers 2.00
Strike Rate 90.91%
Current bank 5,421.12
Profit/Loss 421.12

[mcgin]

253 on Munster @ 1.1 on Betfair.

[mcgin]

Not the most convincing victory, but a win is a win.

Total staked 2,292.58
Total returned 2,737.82
Yield 19.42%
Winners 21.00
Loosers 2.00
Strike Rate 91.30%
Current bank 5,445.24
Profit/Loss 445.24

[mcgin]

Didn't advise these two, but just thought I'd list them here for anyone who was interested (they're not included in the system results). Northampton were available for a short time on Premierbet @ 1.5 when every other books was 1.4 or less, they quickly cut it into 1.4.
There was a small bit of money available on Betfair for Saracens @ 1.04. I didn't advise this one due to the lack of books available on it due to it being the not so big European Challenge cup, but all the normal books were around 1/500 or 1/350 so the overlay was huge on Betfair.

[mcgin]

I'll also be altering the staking strategy for next week as not happy with it as it stands.

[mcgin]

Cardiff @ 1.105 with Extrabet 250pts

[mcgin]

Total staked 2,542.29
Total returned 3,013.82
Yield 18.55%
Winners 22.00
Loosers 2.00
Strike Rate 91.67%
Current bank 5,471.53
Profit/Loss 471.53

[mcgin]

Scarlets 161pts @ 1.11 on Betfair
Toulouse 243 @ 1.12 on Betfari

[mcgin]

Another 2 wins

Total staked 2,946.44
Total returned 3,462.51
Yield 17.52%
Winners 24.00
Loosers 2.00
Strike Rate 92.31%
Current bank 5,516.07
Profit/Loss 516.07

[davidmphill]

Nice going McGin.
Scarlets was a bit tooclose for comfort!

[mcgin]

Fraid I wasn't able to keep track of it, was out for the day Just glad I didn't include Munster yesterday even though they technically fitted the system criteria!

[mcgin]

Incidentally, fixed stakes is looking extremely healthy at +213pts for flat 50pt staking with a yield of 16.5%.

[mcgin]

And finally details of the revised staking strategy. I noticed that the higher odds matches were giving higher percentage differences and thus larger stakes. Whereas I should really have the larger stakes on the lower odds as these are more likely to come in. (And also by definition I am looking for larger differences at the higher prices)

So here's what I'll be doing
If the average odds are <1.15 then the stake will be full Kelly (i.e. if the best price available is 5% above the average then the stake is 5% of the bank)
If the avg is <1.25 but greater then 1.15 the stake will be 2/3 Kelly (4% of the bank in the example above)
And if the average is < 1.4 the stake will be 1/3 Kelly (2% of the bank in the example above).

[mcgin]

Newport v Borders 1.22 Totesport 170pts

[mcgin]

Leinster v Scarlets 1.4 Stanjames 140pts
Huge discrepency there, don't expect it to last long

[Rafa]

Newport have big injuries, that may not be a shoe-in - see DAC's excellent Magners League thread.