Longshot-Favourite Bias - Rugby

[mcgin]

Okay this is going to be a paper trial for the time being. Basically along the same lines of what Datapunter is doing in his Soccer hot favourites system, but applied to Rugby Union. Its a paper trial cos I've no idea whether the bias exists in the rugby market cos I haven't been able to lay my hands on past odds information for Rugby so if anyone has it please do share!
It should in theory produce a better strike rate then the soccer selections, as the chances of a draw are much slimmer in Rugby and that tends to be what upsets the apple cart for the soccer selections.

Last week would have produced 1 (winning) selection Wasps @ 2/7 where most bookies had em at 2/9. Technically its after eventing , but I'm including it in the selections as I chose it before I decided to start posting the picks on here and this is really more for my records then for anyone elses That said, all future bets will be proofed here before the event.

I'll be keeping track of the bets in the spreadsheet below (tell me what sort of access you guys have to this, I'm hoping its read only ):
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pC1ufGPuFg_6m9NfIhGMiRw

[Norfolk Enchance]

Yeah, its read only.

Good luck with this mcgin.

Have you set any limits for the average price? and what sort of % above the average price will you be looking to back at?

Obviously 2/7 is significantly higher than 2/9, but (hope you don't mind me talking decimals ) what if the average was 1.222 and the top price, say, 1.25?

[mcgin]

I talk in decimals myself usually Norfolk, not sure why I used fractions above

Not really sure just yet how I'm gonna play this out. I'm gonna start by taking average prices <1.3 probly and anything about 4% above the average should make it a selection. So to take a price of 1.25 I'd need the average to be closer to 1.20 (1.25/1.2 = 1.042). I'll probly need to tweak it a bit I'm sure, thats why its a paper trial

[mcgin]

Selections so far this weekend:

Leicester v London Irish (1) - 1.33 Coral (Average = 1.26)

I'm going to proof this one too, just so I have a track of things under 1.5. I can filter them out at a later date if they turn out to be unprofitable, but for the time being anything <1.5 will qualify.
Harlequins v Worcester (1) - 1.44 WillHill (Average = 1.35)

[mcgin]

I'll be keeping an eye on Cardiff v Connaught too, but doubt it will qualify.

[mcgin]

Cardiff do indeed qualify, average is 1.26 and the best price is 1.33 with Totesport.
Scotland v The pacific Islanders is also a selection (although if this were a real money trial I wouldn't include it myself)

Scotland are 1.43 with Extrabet (Average is 1.35)

[mcgin]

Good start to the system anyway. All bets won, (Harlequins v Worcester was postponed).

Total staked 198.44
Total returned 266.63
Yield 34.36%
Winners 4.00
Loosers 0.00
Strike Rate 100.00%
Current bank 5,068.19
Profit/Loss 68.19

[mcgin]

Must be going mad, Harlequins wasn't postponed! Another win to add

Total staked 249.96
Total returned 340.67
Yield 36.29%
Winners 5.00
Loosers 0.00
Strike Rate 100.00%
Current bank 5,090.70
Profit/Loss 90.70

[davidmphill]

Nice going mcgin.
Pressures on now to keep this going!!

[Datapunter]

Good idea mcgin,
if a price bias exists for football then why not for rugby,
as long as the bookies get large volumes in they have a reason to limit their risk, enter price bias.

Have you found any historic odds yet ?
I know you know your way around a java program, can you also find your way around in a mysql database ?

[mcgin]

Hey DP,

Unfortunatly no I haven't been able to find any historic data. And yes I know SQL. In the process of (slowly!) building a soccer DB, which should in theory be easily extended to include Rugby. What did you have in mind?

[Datapunter]

I'm doing some work on Betfair's historic data, should be able to filter out rugby info, will have a look later this week

[mcgin]

Ah didn't think of BFs data. Cool, thanks mate

[mcgin]

One selection so far for the weekend:
Scotland v Australia Australia 25/11/2006 Mansion 1.37 4.38% 1.43 50.91

[mcgin]

This might be a bit clearer....
Scotland v Australia 25/11/2006 Mansion 1.43 50.91

[mcgin]

Don't see any reason to restrict it to Rugby Union, so going to include Rugby league as well!

Australia v New Zealand Rugby League Australia 25/11/2006 Mansion 1.33 50.91pts

[mcgin]

Well 1 win and the Tri-Nations game was a draw in 80 minutes so figures now:

Total staked 351.79
Total returned 413.47
Yield 17.54%
Winners 6.00
Loosers 1.00
Strike Rate 85.71%
Current bank 5,061.69
Profit/Loss 61.69

[mcgin]

Just spotted another one for tomorrow.

London Irish are 1.41 average, with 1.5 available @ sporting odds. 50.62 staked.

[mcgin]

Another one to add.

Saracens v Worcester 1.18 with Extrabet. 1.13 Average. 50.62 staked

[mcgin]

1 win, 1 loss

Total staked 453.03
Total returned 489.41
Yield 8.03%
Winners 7.00
Loosers 2.00
Strike Rate 77.78%
Current bank 5,036.38
Profit/Loss 36.38