Laying Correct Scores

[Hodgey]

Ok I'm gonna paper trail another system here. It involves the Correct Score markets and laying one of the more fancied scores on a match. The basis behind the lay will be the price comparison between Betbrain and Betfair (subject to the best price coming from a reputable bookie I have heard of).

Reasoning? Well not much concrete stuff really! Basically, it's a very liquid market and there's loads of outcomes. But the main crux is something along the lines of if a bookmaker has a price of X, then if I can get within 5-10% of that price to lay then I'm possibly laying at the fair odds price after allowing for bookmakers overround (which is huge on CS markets). However I'm also aware that the majority of the overround is probably allocated to the higher odds scores that are less likely to come up. Again, this is pure speculation on my part and not backed up by any scientific proof.

I will stick to the larger leagues, probably just the English Premiership to start with, as this is the most liquid and will be covered by the most bookies.

Each lay will have a liability of 50pts - to keep the maths simple. Commission will be at Betfair's standard 5%.

I will start on Saturday, but here's an example of what it will look like from tonight's Scottish match.

Hearts v Hibs
Score to Lay 1-0
Best Bookie Price 8.00 Stan James
Betfair lay price 8.20
Price Diff 2.5%

So lay 1-0 at odds of 8.20 (1.139) to win 6.94 (gross) with liability of 50pts.

Clear as mud?!

Thoughts and constructive criticisms welcomed. And any holes in my reasoning too?

[F.]

Very good luck pal...

Please keep us posted on the results of the matches you choose and on the progression of your bank...

Cheers !!


F.

[aliando]

good luck mate!

[Datapunter]

Wouldn't hurt to collect and include a bit of statistical data,
- scoreline % of the competition,
- # of goals of the teams recently,
- odds Total goals , Under/Over,
to name but a few,

even if it's just to support the proofing so you can look afterwards if there is any value in including/excluding based on some stat info.

[Dumyat]

Hearts were around 10/11 to win - so the true 1-0 chance would be somewhere in the range 10-12%. If say 11% then laying edge after BF tax of 5% is less than 1% - but still a profit.

As you mention bookies take vast margin on CS but much less on the more likely scores.

I suspect if you offer 10% more than bookie best price then edge will go negative. eg at 8.8 and true 11% then -0.16%. But if you only go with 2.5% then may not get any action!

[Hodgey]

Originally Posted by Datapunter

Wouldn't hurt to collect and include a bit of statistical data,
- scoreline % of the competition,
- # of goals of the teams recently,
- odds Total goals , Under/Over,
to name but a few,

even if it's just to support the proofing so you can look afterwards if there is any value in including/excluding based on some stat info.

I will try and include some additional information, time permitting, cos agree it might throw up some extra points.

[Hodgey]

Originally Posted by Dumyat

Hearts were around 10/11 to win - so the true 1-0 chance would be somewhere in the range 10-12%. If say 11% then laying edge after BF tax of 5% is less than 1% - but still a profit.

As you mention bookies take vast margin on CS but much less on the more likely scores.

I suspect if you offer 10% more than bookie best price then edge will go negative. eg at 8.8 and true 11% then -0.16%. But if you only go with 2.5% then may not get any action!

Is there a table that converts match odds into CS odds? I know it's on the back of the weekend coupons in the shops, but wondered if it's online somewhere?

I won't be laying if the price is over 10% bigger. Ideally I'd like to be under 5%, and hoping to get within 2-3%.

[Hodgey]

Ok, first one for real in terms of the thread but rememeber this is a paper trail only.

Sunderland v Tottenham
Score to Lay 1-1
Best Bookie Price 7.00 Blue Sq
Betfair lay price 7.20
Price Diff 2.9%

I have also recorded the HDA and O/U prices, but they are irrelevant at the moment so wont be posting them as I go.

[Hodgey]

And the rest of the Prem games.

Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %
Sunderland v Tottenham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%
Bolton v Newcastle	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%
Derby v Portsmouth	0-1	8.00	Laddies	8.20	2.5%
Everton v Wigan	1-0	7.00	Centrebet	7.20	2.9%
Middlesbrough v Blackburn	1-2	12.00	BlueSQ	11.50	-4.2%
West Ham v Man City	2-1	9.50	Betinternet	9.20	-3.2%
Aston Villa v Liverpool	0-1	8.00	Stan James	7.80	-2.5%

[Hodgey]

The one with the 'best value' beforehand lands. D'oh!

Need another goal in the Villa v Liverpool game too.....

[Hodgey]

2 late goals in the Villa match means just one loser today, but that's enough to get this off to a slight losing start.

Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
Sunderland v Tottenham	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	1-0	W	7.66	7.66
Bolton v Newcastle	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.00	0.0%	1-3	W	6.79	14.45
Derby v Portsmouth	0-1	8.00	Laddies	8.20	2.5%	2-2	W	6.60	21.05
Everton v Wigan	1-0	7.00	Centrebet	7.20	2.9%	2-1	W	7.66	28.71
Middlesbrough v Blackburn	1-2	12.00	BlueSQ	11.50	-4.2%	1-2	L	(50.00)	(21.29)
West Ham v Man City	2-1	9.50	Betinternet	9.20	-3.2%	0-2	W	5.79	(15.50)
Aston Villa v Liverpool	0-1	8.00	Stan James	7.80	-2.5%	1-2	W	6.99	(8.51)

Summary
Bets Placed 7
Units Staked 350.00
Units Returned 341.49
Profit (8.51)
Yield -2.43%
Strike Rate 85.71%
Average Odds 1.14
Average Stake 50.00

[aliando]

not bad mind - 1 in 7 loses and you're about even. I'd say that the long-term plan looks good on those stats...

[Hodgey]

Originally Posted by aliando

not bad mind - 1 in 7 loses and you're about even. I'd say that the long-term plan looks good on those stats...

Yeah still early days so we'll see how it goes.

Of course the other way at looking at it could be that the value is in the bookie prices if they are higher than the Betfair price! This could turn out to be a backing correct scores thread instead!

But for now, I shall continue laying. 3 for today:

Arsenal v Fulham
Score to Lay 2-1
Best Bookie Price 9.00 Centrebet
Betfair lay price 8.80
Price Diff -2.2%

Chelsea v Birmingham
Score to Lay 1-1
Best Bookie Price 14.00 Canbet
Betfair lay price 13.00
Price Diff -7.1%

Man Utd v Reading
Score to Lay 2-1
Best Bookie Price 10.00 Stan James
Betfair lay price 10.00
Price Diff 0.0%

[Hodgey]

90th minute goal from the Arse scupper today's lays.

Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
												(8.51)
Arsenal v Fulham	2-1	9.00	Centrebet	8.80	-2.2%	6.41	1.128	50.00	2-1	L	(50.00)	(58.51)
Chelsea v Birmingham	1-1	14.00	Canbet	13.00	-7.1%	4.17	1.083	50.00	3-2	W	3.96	(54.55)
Man Utd v Reading	2-1	10.00	Stan James	10.00	0.0%	5.56	1.111	50.00	0-0	W	5.28	(49.27)

Summary
Bets Placed 10
Units Staked 500.00
Units Returned 450.73
Profit (49.27)
Yield -9.85%
Strike Rate 80.00%
Average Odds 1.13
Average Stake 50.00

Could be the makings of a beautiful back thread!

[Hodgey]

One Prem game tonight:

Tottenham v Everton
Score to Lay 2-0
Best Bookie Price 9.50 Centrebet
Betfair lay price 9.80
Price Diff 3.2%

[Hodgey]

Tottenham 1-3 Everton so a winning lay.

Summary
Bets Placed 11
Units Staked 550.00
Units Returned 506.13
Profit (43.87)
Yield -7.98%
Strike Rate 81.82%
Average Odds 1.13
Average Stake 50.00

[Hodgey]

6 matches tonight.

Date	Wager	Score	Betbrain	Bookie	Lay Odds	Diff %	Lay Stake	Back Odds	Liability	Result	W/L	P/(L)	Balance
14-Aug	Tottenham v Everton	2-0	9.50	Centrebet	9.80	3.2%	5.68	1.114	50.00	1-3	W	5.40	(43.87)
15-Aug	Birmingham v Sunderland	1-0	8.00	Laddies	8.20	2.5%	6.94	1.139	50.00			0.00	(43.87)
15-Aug	Fulham v Bolton	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00			0.00	(43.87)
15-Aug	Man City v Derby	3-0	15.00	Blue Sq	14.50	-3.3%	3.70	1.074	50.00			0.00	(43.87)
15-Aug	Portsmouth v Man Utd	0-1	7.50	Centrebet	7.20	-4.0%	8.06	1.161	50.00			0.00	(43.87)
15-Aug	Reading v Chelsea	0-1	7.00	Stan James	7.00	0.0%	8.33	1.167	50.00			0.00	(43.87)
15-Aug	Wigan v Middlesbrough	1-1	7.00	BlueSQ	7.20	2.9%	8.06	1.161	50.00			0.00	(43.87)

Just a point to note - the best 'value' on the Man City game is for 3-0 which is 15.00. I think if I were doing this for real I would have a cut off of 11.00 to lay so it wouldn't be a pick. For reference I will include the next best which is 1-0 lay price of 7.20 bookie price of 7.00 at Laddies.

Looking so far this would also have excluded Boro v Blackburn (conveniently a loser! ) and Chelsea v Brum. Seriously this isn't me just backfitting I had already had a max price of 11.00 in mind. However I will carry on with the best price on here but also note the next best price under 11.00 too.