Laying 0-0: any genius idea how to reduce liabilty?

[jasonp]

Hi, I am new here...let me share my idea with you...
Correct Score 0-0: it happens rarely especially with teams with blasting attack like Real Madrid, Barcellona, Juve, Inter, Milan, Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea etc etc. These kind of teams rarely their games finish 0-0 irrespective if the draw, loose or win. Thus I have been looking closely this for this kind of bet. I know that there was something posted already here, so if I am repeating, sorry sorry.

Well on popular betting exchange, you may
1) back 1 or more goals to happen in a game with odds always around 1.05, or
2) laying correct score 0-0 at odds always around 12

The two above are basically the same bet..The problem of Option 1 is the little profit that you get, and option 2 is the huge liability it incurres if the game finishes 0-0.

Last week I have done some statistics of around 200 matches picked randomly from a score site, and basically I included all matches even there where japanese teams etc. The draw 0-0 only happened 16 times from these 200 games, so a very nice 92% strike rate. I believe that if you be more selective this may be easily go up to 95% - 98%!!! When I evaluated the 0-0 scores, most of the draws where low division teams unknown to me. When I assumed a starting stake of UK 5 and following a very basic staking plan with lay odds of 11, after 200 matches the bank would have been UK 582!!! what a nice profit!!

The problem with this system is that the liabilty is so high if you be unlucky enough to hit 0-0 game even with high scoring quality teams.

Just last Saturday I started this system with real money and bet on Man Utd, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Roma, Barcellona and Juventus and their games had goals so I won the bet.

So please can anyone can think of any strategy to reduce the liabilty??? I have tried some ways and means, by for example lay the game draw and then back 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 (although 3-3 is very unprobable especially if such teams play against scores but still

I am sharing this idea with you is becuase I think that this works and can leave huge profits especially if you bet on high scoring teams.

Thanks..sorry for the long post

[Datapunter]

Jason

And great first post good thinking.
Have you read my mind, was thinking about the very thing last week.

How to reduce liability ?
I don't think you can, or should really. It comes down to having faith in your research. And yes, you may hit the 5% loss at the beginning and immediately hit a great gap in your bank. But that is part of the game.

If you research is sound go for it.
- Pick a bank, money you can afford to lose remember.
- Place bets to a liability of say 10% of your bank, or whatever you are comfortable with.
- Descide on your strategy, for example Lay the 0-0 and let it ride.
- Stick with it to the end.

So if your research say's 95% strike rate at Lay odds of 11.0 you win long term. Go for it. It would be unfortunate if you start with a couple of loosers but hey, thats life. Its going to come down to having the balls too see it through.

The alternative , to back at least one goal to be scored, has the same liability btw. In order to make 1 point profit at odds of 1.05 you need to stake 20 points. Thats the same as a Lay bet with a liability of 20 to make 1.

One suggestion if i may. look a bit deeper into what odds you need to lay at. If i remember correctly when i looked at this i got average odds of 13.0 - 15.0

[jasonp]

Hi DataPunter, 10x for your reply and suggestions..

Regarding the odds, you are right in saying that what you looked for where 13 - 15, but I noticed that they do not really represent the high scoring capability of the teams. I got Roma and Inter games at 10.5 odds, but Barcellona was 18!! Anyway this can be part of my discipline not to lay at such high odds or more than lets say 13

Well regarding my research, I just got the first 200 scores from soccerstand website (sorry if I cannot post websites) of a whole week (was around 2 weeks ago), I did an Excel spreadsheet and from here I got all the details. To be honest it took me only 20minutes .

If you see the results of Premier ship, Serie A and Champions League Games from last 2 weekends onwards, only Chelsea (with team B) and Lecce finished 0-0 (just yesterday), if my memory is correct!! Still ALL the teams I thought that the game won't finish 0-0 all scored.

About Lecce game of yesterday I still have to check what went wrong (key attacking players missing, just unlucky etc) since Lecce is the team that scored most in Seria A. (I think now Inter are in front with just 1 goal).

I also noticed that Spanish and German leagues do have high scoring games. Anyway, sorry for all these details, but this is the reasoning I have been thinking on lately.

Anyway sorry for the long post, but I just wish to explain what I have been thinking on lately, so maybe we can further improve this system together for the benefit of all, since I believe with such high strike rate can be quite a profitable system.

Another idea could be to LAY "Scores Not Quoted", where this covers 0-0, 1-0, etc etc up to 3-3 for low scoring teams. Lay odds are always around 10 - 12.

Any further ideas, insights, comments, constructive feeback etc are much appreciate. 10x again

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Another thing that will help to reduce your liability Jason is to pick your matches early and to get your 0 - 0 price requests up as early as you can on Betfair. If you keep adjusting this so you're always the best you'll probably get matched at a much better price than is avaliable to lay at.

[kompressaur]

Obviously backing no goal-scorer rather than 0-0 has been mentioned if applicable. I'll go away.

EDIT:Missed the whole point of your post J. 'LAYING'. Ok i will go. Ive been no help at all but it gives me a chance to welcome you to the PL J.

[jasonp]

DeepBlueDevilFish: Sounds a good idea, and how stupid I am not to think about it! I use similar technique to trade on horses for drifting (trading so called it seems)!

Any idea when the odds are issued? Do they have specific times of the day or you have to just keep an eye on them?

kompressaur: you welcome..but for a moment I thought that I wrote it all wrong!!

sorry if I am asking to much questions! but thats me...and I am not at all a professional punter or whatever, I am a newbie and still learning!

10x again for the interest...I am continually monitoring this thread maybe a genius out there can solve my only worry! Big Liability if you get it wrong!

[Hodgey]

Blimey you read my mind too!! I started a glory thread on this only yesterday.

I'm hopeful of doing some backtesting into big faves ending in 0-0, but for the time being I'm going with gut instinct.

Best of luck with yours Jason.

[asterikus]

I am using this kind of betting with good results for one year ; of course it needs to bet important stakes to do money, but with this way of 'playing' is essencial to be patience and waiting a lot of winning bets to have generous profits.
At this moment, laying 0-0 is my only best way of betting; Since the moment i am adopting it, i am largely in active on my account.
Nextly i will talk about my criteries of choosing events and strategies...
Regards,
Tony
Italy

I am sharing this idea with you is becuase I think that this works and can leave huge profits especially if you bet on high scoring teams.

[ONEDUNME]

I disagree slightly with the above. Well when I say slightly, what I mean is entirely .

I may well come a cropper but Villa and Liverpool seem to be expected to play out a very low scoring game. It may happen of course but my theory is usually to go against the tide in order to make money. I therefore think that odds of 8.8/1 for this game to end 0-0 currently available on Betfair is worth taking on and that's where my cash has gone.

[ONEDUNME]

Nice one . Less than 20 minutes gone and I'm collecting.

[Tonyvdb]

Can someone link me to a site where I can find statistics on correct scores ?? (% of 1-0's, 1-1's, etc ... in this or that league)

[aa421]

Tony, I don't know where you can get the percentages directly, but you can get the data to do the calculations yourself from www.football-data.co.uk. It is very cheap and you can download the scores from about 30,000 games across about 20 European leagues.

[Osesame]

Here is what you need

http://www.xscores.com/LiveScore.do

choose soccer, click statistics then correct score.

[Tonyvdb]

Originally Posted by Osesame

Here is what you need

http://www.xscores.com/LiveScore.do

choose soccer, click statistics then correct score.

thanks !
that's what I was looking for !!

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Theres a HUGE thread on this on the betfair soccer forums you may be interested in looking at.

Here's the link http://forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex...sageCount=1523

[jasonp]

thanks to you all for the info, since I was the one who started this thread..well I am betting sometimes with this system, but a loss at the beginning will hit hard!

well you have to be very selective! thats the trick! till now just 10 in a row..although I will soon die by a heart attack..last Sunday Roma vs Sampdoria luckily scored last minute, and just now with Valenzia and somehow mirackly I forgot to lay against Real last sunday where they finished 0-0!!

I am still trying hard to find some way or another to reduce this huge liability! maybe lay draw will sound better especially when someone scores, back odds will drift up, thus creating free bet? anyway with this lay draw ended up loosing last sunday against rangers since instead drifting up, when Inverness C.T scored first and early in the game...back draw went drastically down does free bet was not at all possible!

any further ideas?

I want to buy a BMW!! please help me!! :P

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

You're right about your lay the draw system. This works fine if the favourites score but doesnt allow a trade if the outsiders score first. So really you need the favs to score first in which case you might as well back them first.

[asterikus]

Hi Jasonp...i can say to understand you!!!
This kind of game let you make ansious during matches played till the moment one of the teams score at least 1 goal. The fact is that normally odds are about 1.05 (playing lay around 20-22) and about 1.09-1.10 (playing match in lay at 11-15) and for this reason we need to put interesting stakes to have acceptable profits; well, this makes stress...but also satisfactions :-)

Reducing liability is not easy; you could exclude some exact scores as 0-3 or 3-3 if you think the home team is the favourite, having surely a better odd (1.15-1.20); another way is waiting live games and bet against 0-0 when the odd looks good for you: i did it last saturday in Barcelona-Malaga when before the match the 0-0 was in lay about 20-22; well, i wait 20-25 minuts waiting the odd around 14 and i bet it! I was lucky, cause after few minuts barcelona has scored!!
By the way i think is very important to follow datas and statistics for the matches you think will play, but even reading posts about the condition of the teams, players, motivations.

I say that having long series of winning you can have good profits, but you need to have also a good strategy, cause one error can cost the whole profit!!

Well, it's late.
Next time i will talk about my past and actual experience with this kind of way of betting and...nextly,about my 'insurance' strategy against the errors (0-0 full time).

Regards

Tony
Italy


ps:

I was forgetting, i am putting my bets on this site
http://www.ibet.it
(asterikus)

It's in italian, created by the newsgroup it.hobby.totoscommesse

you can follow directly my link name here:

http://www.ibet.it/utente.php?user=asterikus

Ciao!

[jasonp]

WorkingForTheEnemy: Well as you said, you might as well back the favourite, however still this lay of draw is more advantages in a way, especially if there is a late equiliser that has happened lately often in the Premierhip (Arsenal, Man Utd )

However I noticed that if you lay the draw around 3.5 or less, it would be possible to make the free bet, and as asterikus well said, I tend to lay the draw when the game starts since it does go down even in the first 10min of the game. I noticed this in the Rangers game where initially Rangers lay draw was 6.6, and dropped down to 3.5 then when the others scored it went up to 4.2 - 4.5 so the free bet was possible, although later it dropped drastically but there was enough time to make the free bet. Maybe we can open a new thread on such lay system..what do you think guys?

[jasonp]

asterikus: bella l'Italia, mi piace molto...io sono da Malta

Thanks for the site, I will give it a close look tomorrow...However I am extremely interested to know about your 'insurance' strategy against the errors (0-0 full time).

In the lay betting is a must to have a detail and latest news about team form, key players missing, whether conditions, type of game etc. Example today was kind of expected the 0-0 Milan draw, and even Barcellona draw rather than loosing..so yes you have to be extremely selective! Any good informative reliable sites for latest news about teams?

I am also noticing that German and Spanish Leagues the probability of 0-0 is much less than other leagues (well Real was kind of a surprise last Saturday although I don't know yet with what team they played). Am I right n this hypothesis or was just a coincidance?

Sorry I write long replies, but well my fulltime work is to explain well and clear, so I just keep the tradition here is as well....

10x for all the feedback! keep it up guys