LAY 0 - 0 Football Strategy

[thunderfoot]

LAYing the Draw then BACKing the Draw when the first goal has been scored is fine, in theory, but it can go against you if the un-favoured team scores first, as the Odds can go the 'wrong' way.

So I've had a look at LAYing the 0 - 0 on the Correct Scores market. The theory is that no matter who scores the first goal you've won.

Now, if a goal isn't scored by the time the BACK odds on the 0 - 0 Correct score get to a 'critical' level, whereby you can trade-out with a loss of your original LAY stake, then the theory is that you would take that loss BUT then make a LAY trade on an unlikely Correct Score of, say 3 - 3 (you'll probably need funds!!). I'm thinking that in the event of a goal not being scored, then it will take until about half-time for the BACK odds to reach the 'critical' level.

If the scores go with you (i.e. a goal is scored), then my theory is that you make another LAY bet on the current score (i.e. hoping another goal is scored), and keep doing this but keeping an eye on the 'critical' level of the BACK odds so you always trade-out with just the loss of your original LAY stake, then make a LAY trade on an unlikely Correct Score.

e.g. (1)
0 - 0; LAY odds = 9.4; stake £10; no goals scored and odds drop to 'critical' level of 4.7; (time into game probably about half-time) now make BACK bet to trade out with loss of -£10. Now look at the 'unlikely' Correct Scores and LAY £10 (or more if you feel confident ... & have the funds) on ,say 3 - 3 (if it's 0 - 0 at half time then it's unlikely that the final score will be 3 - 3).

e.g. (2)
0 - 0; LAY odds = 9.4; stake £10; goal scored; £10 in the bank; Lay the current score for £10; goal scored; £10 in the bank; either stop at so many 'wins' or keep repeating the process until the BACK odds have reached the 'critical' level.

Basically the theory being that if the game is still 0 - 0 when the 'critical' level has been reached, then it's unlikely that a high score is in the making.

"What does the team think"? Does this sound reasonable? Could the strategy be 'tweaked'?

[thunderfoot]

Working Example.

Ecuador v Costa Rica

Game Start
0 - 0 LAY £10 @ 9.40 - 'Critical' BACK odds 4.70
7 mins 1 - 0
Running Profit +£10.00
1 - 0 LAY £10 @ 7.60 - 'Critical' BACK odds 3.80
Half Time ... 1 - 0 BACK odds 4.30
50 mins 1 - 0; 'Critical' BACK odds reached; Traded-out with £10 loss.
Running Profit £0.00
(LAY odds for 3 - 3 'Correct Score' not available)
LAYed £10 on '5 goals or more' @ 39.00
Final Score 3 - 0
Running Profit £10.00

[Rafa]

The "get-out" clause is crucial - here's my thoughts on it for what they're worth - I've looked at this myself a bit .....

Given that your loss when you get out is your origanal stake (equalised across all variables) & given that you expect that to occur at around half-time in games, do you know statistically how many games are still 0-0 at or approaching half-time?

My thinking here is that you may be better off statistically waiting for say the 60 min mark for a goal to be scored if there's a disproportionate amount of goals scored in the first 15 mins after half-time compared with the drop in odds during the same period i.e. the risk of lettin the liability grow is outweighed by the goals scored in this period. I have some historic information on this & will see if I can dig it out.

Re: laying each score as you go along I think this is good again providing you strictly use the get out loss equaliser. In this instance I'd say keep to the "halving of the odds" get out point. Also I wouldn't get greedy on this, given a 'general' average of slightly > 2 goals per game on average I'd be very slow to do this for any goals after a 2nd goes in & certainly not after a third goes in. Plus, you may need to wait for 2-3 mins after a goal goes in to let the market settle before laying the next goal - there will always be temporary distortion in place for a few mins after a goal goes in.

Overall I think its a , once you get your hands on the stats in question & once you have the discipline to get out at the appointed time (for part 2 I'd place the back bet as I place the lay bet to ensure I don't miss my get-out point).

For what its worth I've seen the two sides of this - the undisciplined said where a guy wiped his bank out totally doing this & myself who's made a few quid here and there doing it.

Good luck.

[Rafa]

Re: laying a 3-3 or the like when its 0-0 at half-time, I'd have thought that you'd be laying in the region of €2,000 to win your €10 at that stage ..... thats not something I'd like to leave myself open to regardless of the probabilities of the same.

[thunderfoot]

Originally Posted by Rafa

......do you know statistically how many games are still 0-0 at or approaching half-time?

From info I have I think it's about 30%.

Originally Posted by Rafa

My thinking here is that you may be better off statistically waiting for say the 60 min mark for a goal to be scored if there's a disproportionate amount of goals scored in the first 15 mins after half-time compared with the drop in odds during the same period i.e. the risk of lettin the liability grow is outweighed by the goals scored in this period. I have some historic information on this & will see if I can dig it out.

Yeah, I thought it might be better to wait until the 2nd half kicks-off because of a) the lower LAY odds & b) I thought that the majority of goals are scored in the 2nd half, but I don't have any statistics to show in, say, 10 minute intervals when goals are scored

Originally Posted by Rafa

Re: laying each score as you go along I think this is good again providing you strictly use the get out loss equaliser. In this instance I'd say keep to the "halving of the odds" get out point.

I thought of using the 50% loss instead of 100%. It makes sense, but the downside is that the 'critical' odds are obviously reached quicker. I reckon in about 30 minutes compared to about 45 minutes for the 100%.

Originally Posted by Rafa

Also I wouldn't get greedy on this, given a 'general' average of slightly > 2 goals per game on average I'd be very slow to do this for any goals after a 2nd goes in & certainly not after a third goes in. Plus, you may need to wait for 2-3 mins after a goal goes in to let the market settle before laying the next goal - there will always be temporary distortion in place for a few mins after a goal goes in.

Agree on both points.

[Rafa]

Ok - layed 0-0 in the Argie & Holland games to good effect; also layed at 1-0 for 50% of my initial lay so two good games there BUT I layed the 0-0 in the late game & got called away early into the game - couldn't trade out and lost all my earlier profits + another multiple of that so am down heavily on the day. Its my own fault and let it be a lesson to anyone going down this route.

On a related issue ... I contacted Betfair to see is there anyway to put up an unmatched bet to trade out into a loosing position to avoid the above happening again ... i.e. I lay a score, say 2-2 for €10 at 20.0 (its presently available to back at 19.0) but as I won't be watching the game while at my PC/phone, I now also want to put in a "back" bet of €20 on the market for a 2-2 scoreline but only when the price drops to 10.0 (to equalise out my losses) ..... Betfair said I can't do it .... does anyone in here know of a program that will run along side betfair & execute a trade for a pre-determined amount at a pre-determined odd/offer? i.e. will execute a trade of backing the 2-2 scoreline for €20 when that market hits the 10.0 mark?

[thunderfoot]

Originally Posted by Rafa

.... does anyone in here know of a program that will run along side betfair & execute a trade for a pre-determined amount at a pre-determined odd/offer? i.e. will execute a trade of backing the 2-2 scoreline for €20 when that market hits the 10.0 mark?

"Gruss"