Lardonio draw challenge - 7,22 units.

I'm not sure how popular it is to start a new draw challenge, but I'll take the chance.

Challenge: To make profit from single draws betting as posed by Oddsagainst.

Time period: Until losses are too huge, or 500 - 1000 bets

Bookmaker: Best odds from bookies I use personally

The first matches selected (all draws obviously):

Norwich - Ipswich 3,35 (Centrebet)
West Ham - Tottenham 3,25 (Paddy Power)
Aston Villa - Birmingham 3,35 (Centrebet)
Reggina - Udinese 3,10 (Expekt)
Juventus - Inter 3,10 (Expekt)
Piacenza - Como 3,60 (Blue Square)
Real Betis - Sevilla 3,10 (Centrebet)
Alaves - Real Madrid 3,40 (Centrebet)

[Osesame]

I will join you in this and I promise not to look at yours first!
Good luck to you as we both know how up and down it can be.
Does anyone else want to have a go?

Not me obviously but the more the merrier.

Welcome to the challenge Osesame, and I think it's a wise idea not to look at my selections :-) They are awful

[Osesame]

Well I did think it would be a bit unfair to delete any that you had picked from my own selections

Another pick today, update of weekend picks will come tomorrow (Aston Villa match not played yet):

Boavista - Sporting Braga - odds 3,56 (Betfair after 5% (max) commission)

I won't mention this again, but with all Betfair picks I will show odds with 5% commision on winnings deducted.

Would it not be a better idea to have individual threads for each system?

[Osesame]

No, its a challenge and should be in one thread imo

Straight to hell, boy!

:evil
Status:
9 bets, no wins - 9 units.

What are your selections criteria, mate?

Most of those picks look sound enough, but 2 of them do look a bit odd to me (the Real game and the Birmingham derby).

If you are going for 500 picks, missing the first 9 is just a drop in the ocean

Criteria - well I have a basic form system that looks at history etc. but I combine it with gut feeling and research which can't really be defined in any way. This weekends picks were a bit rushed (it's not an excuse, I think they were OK picks) so I didn't have time to crunch the numbers like I wanted. Real were coming into form but has drawn a lot of matches this year and a derby (Birmingham) is nearly always a sound draw pick in my opinion.

Anyway, todays selections: (Betfair odds, commision withdrawn)

Wimbledon - Portsmouth 3,52
Blackpool - Barnsley 3,38
Plymouth - Peterborough 3,23
Bury - Bristol Rovers 3,61
Darlington - York 3,28
Exeter - Wrexham 3,28
Lincoln - Hartlepool 3,33

With regard to debys, I recommend a bit of caution, mate.

Some derbys are, as you say, very draw prone, but there are also some - like the Birmingham derby, the one in Munich or the Copenhagen derby (Brondby-FCK) which nearly never finish even.

Hey hey! This is going so fcuking great!

16 picks, 0 wins, - 16 units.

The disaster continues. Might be more picks after more research. Odds based on BetBase.info's highest odds. If anyone disagrees with this, please say so. (It's just a very fast way of shopping around for good odds, if I may say so)

Celtic - Rangers - 3,40
Arsenal - Chelsea - 3,55
Borussia Mgladback - Borussia Dortmund - 3,46
Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld - 4.00
Wolfsburg - Cottbus - 3,56
Roma - Lazio - 3,20
Como - Brescia - 3,15
Modena - Perugia - 3,15

More picks added Friday night:

Lens - Nice - 3,40
Bradford - Crystal Palace - 3,40
Sedan - Guingamp - 3,25
Sheffield U - Leeds - 3,40
Atalanta - Parma - 3,10
Peterboro - Wigan - 3,50
Venezia - Lecce - 2,80
Tranmere - Crewe - 3,55

Status so far:
16 picks, 0 wins, - 16 units.

I finally made some good picks after rethinking my selection methods. Results from the weekend:

Celtic - Rangers - 3,40 LOST >:
Arsenal - Chelsea - 3,55 WON
Borussia Mgladback - Borussia Dortmund - 3,46 LOST >:
Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld - 4.00 WON
Wolfsburg - Cottbus - 3,56 LOST >:
Roma - Lazio - 3,20 - WON
Como - Brescia - 3,15 WON
Modena - Perugia - 3,15 WON
Lens - Nice - 3,40 WON
Bradford - Crystal Palace - 3,40 LOST >:
Sedan - Guingamp - 3,25 LOST >:
Sheffield U - Leeds - 3,40 LOST >:
Atalanta - Parma - 3,10 WON
Peterboro - Wigan - 3,50 WON
Venezia - Lecce - 2,80 WON
Tranmere - Crewe - 3,55 LOST >:

Total this weekend:
16 units staked, 29,85 won = + 13,85 units

Status so far:
32 picks, 29,85 units won, = - 2,15 units.

1 bet today. Best odds from betbase.info

Duisburg - Frankfurt 3,30

Re the odds selections. Personally I will only quote odds for my selections from bookmakers that I hold an account with or would be willing to open one with. It is all very well quoting great odds from ImightRipYouOff trading from Mars but if you would not risk your funds with them then how could you realise your proofed profits in reality?

Yeah, I have to agree. It was just a simple way of doing it. I'll start quoting the bookmaker for each bet now, and only use the ones I have an account with, or know are reliable.

I hope you'll accept the odds posted for the weekend though, as I don't really want to check them again. In my defense I have to say that the odds quoted for the weekend all was available to my accounts and I also found a couple of better ones which I didn't select at Betfair.

The odds for the bet today is from Unibet, whom I have an account with.

No problem there. I like to know that if I make z% testing this season then I can make z% for real next season.

The bet lost tonight.

Status so far:
33 picks, 29,85 units won, = - 3,15 units.