Just 4% profit after 66 games in my research about under - over in basketball

[sjuesju]

I am starting a quick research about few different strategies about betting on under or over at basketball games. I will use WNBA because it is only one major championship where matches are on right now. Few words about those different strategies: the first one I have used before in NBA last regular season. I follow the under – over stats for every team and when the match is going to be played I just take a look to numbers. For example Washington and Atlanta will play tonight – Washington has 50-50 until now and Atlanta has 30-70 under – over percentage. So, I will bet over here.
The other way of betting is similar, but a bit more difficult. The principal is the same, but the way of collecting the data is different. For every team I make different sectors divided by the border given by the bookie for under or over. Then I checked the previous matches for this particular team for that particular border and compare the percentage between both teams on that border and bet for under or over with greater percentage.
The third way I will check to the rest of the season is far more difficult. I read in the forum about using Gauss’ least squares approximate principal for betting. It was about football, but I think it’s best to put it into practice with under – over betting. So I chose to use it here. For data I will use the last ten matches for every team – so 20 games.
The same method will be used for my fourth hypothesis, but the difference again will be of the way I collected data. Here I will use the last 10 mutual games between the teams.
I will check another two ways of making tips, but they are far less effective I think. I will check them only because it is easy to collect data. I will check the last 10 matches for every team and I will calculate the average scores so it will be mine point to guess will the match be under or over.
Finally, the same method will be made, but with data collected from the last 10 mutual games between the teams. http://betsurf.org/wordpress/2009/07...-over-betting/

[sjuesju]

A note here. I will start researching when I find a match where both teams have played at least 10 games. There is no matches like that today.

[sjuesju]

Today comes the first match where both teams have played 10 games at least. This match is Sacramento - Chicago. I must say this is a paper trial of 6 methods for making picks. I do not know what win's percentage I will achieve, but I think it will be interesting. Here are the picks:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Sacramento - Chicago	147.5	O	O	148	159	153.6	147.5

It is easy to be seen all methods give over for this match. A quick note about columns. Match is clear. Bk L is the line given by the bookie. Of course we all know, that this line is bookie prediction, which will lead to 50-50 spread of bets for over and under and it will move up or down in the next few hours, depends of the bets. % L is a prediction made by the matches both teams have played so far, where I simply take a look how many games have finished over and under for both teams and which line is most this will be the bet. %i L is the same but in exact matches of the teams where they have played a match, where the bookie have offered a line between 146 and 150 points. G L is a prediction made by Gauss' method for least squares approximation taken from last 10 matches for every team. Gm L is the same, but the data is different - their last 7 meetings. The other two are their average points, taken from the data above.

Again, this is just a trial. I do not know would it be succesful at all.

[sjuesju]

Sacramento and Chicago finished Over as expected. Here are the stats for todays match:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Chicago - Phoenix	179	O	O	171.5	198	166.5	175

[sjuesju]

Today's matches:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Minnesota - San Antonio	156.5	O	U	158.5	148	154	151
Indiana - Chicago	140.5	O	U	145.5	132	148	139

[sjuesju]

Here are the results from the first 4th matches I have looked for. I am sorry I will present the data a bit different from the rules, but I hope it will not be a problem. It would be too difficult to present it in a common way. Nevertheless, the odds are always 1.91, so all math will be easy.
So, after 4 matches (in the brakes are the winners):

% L +	%i L +	G L +	Gm L +	Avg. L +	Avg.m L +
1	3	2	3	3	4

It is easy to see that average points of last 10 mutual games are 100% correct by now. I've got other 3 which are on 75% and other which are not so good.

[sjuesju]

The matches for today:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
LA - Washington	145,5	U	U	158,5	141,5	152,3	156,5
Atlanta - New York	149	O	O	141,5	171,5	151	161,5
Phoenix - Sacramento	173	O	U	144,5	190	166	169

[sjuesju]

MAtches for 12.07

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Minnesota - San Antonio	152	O	O	146.5	142.5	152.5	150
Chicago - Seattle	139.5	U	U	141	127.5	149	139

[sjuesju]

Results after 9 games. Unfortunately the stats shows around 50% winners.

% L +	%i L +	G L +	Gm L +	Avg. L +	Avg.m L +
4	5	4	5	4	4

[sjuesju]

Only one match today:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
LA - Connecticut	142	U	U	151.5	169.5	144	155.1

[sjuesju]

5 matches today:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
San Antonio - Washington	144	U	U	155	156	149	150
Atlanta - Minnesota	166.5	O	U	145	170.5	162	160
Indiana - Chicago	143.5	O	U	141	129	148	140
Sacramento - Phoenix	178.5	O	O	173	203	168.5	175
Detroit - Seattle	143	U	U	156	155	148	148.5

[sjuesju]

Today's matches:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Atlanta - Indiana	151.5	O	U	141	166	150.5	157
Connecticut - San Antonio	142.5	U	U	152.5	143	147.5	142
Seattle - Sacramento	140.5	U	U	159	131	147.5	144.5

[sjuesju]

Two matches tonight:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
New York - Washington	143	U	U	144.5	139.5	150	149.5
Detroit - Phoenix	173	O	U	178	171.5	166	176.5

[sjuesju]

18 matches have been played since I started this research. Here are the stats in percentages:

% L +	%i L +	G L +	Gm L +	Avg. L +	Avg.m L +
61.1	50	33.3	61.1	38.8	44.4

We all know the odds here are 1.91, so everything above 52.5% is profit. Right now only two methods give profit. The one that the punter look at previous matches of both teams in the season and the bet under or over depends on how many under and over both teams have made. The secon method is with using Gauss least square approximate method with last ten mutual matches between the teams. The profit in both methods is 16.7%

[sjuesju]

One of the methods reached 65% wins. Here are the stats for today's matches:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
indiana - Connecticut	139	U	O	152	137	144.5	147
Atlanta - New York	147.5	U	O	138	152.5	149	157
San Antonio - Chicago	147	O	O	147.5	159	152	143
Minnesota - Seattle	147.5	U	U	142.5	166	153	157.5
Detroit - Sacramento	146	O	U	171	161	152.5	153

[sjuesju]

One match today:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Indiana - Washington	143.5	U	U	146	115.5	148	133

[sjuesju]

Todays matches:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
Atlanta - Detroit	156	O	U	158.5	195.5	156.5	174
New York - Chicago	145.5	O	O	150.5	120	149.5	138.5
Sacramento - Connecticut	142	U	U	150	149.5	147	139.5
Minnesota - Phoenix	179.5	O	O	175.5	193	170.5	183

[sjuesju]

The last match for tonight:

Match	Bk L	% L	%i L	G L	Gm L	Avg. L	Avg.m L
LA - Seattle	138	U	O	137	128	144.5	134.5

[sjuesju]

Stats after 31 games:

% L +

%i L +

G L +

Gm L +

Avg. L +

Avg.m L +

61.3	54.8	41.9	58	45.1	38.7
117	104.7	80.1	110.9	86.258	73.9355

The first line are methods I use for research. They are explaind above. The second line are winning percentages and the third line shows ROI after those 31 matches.

Just a mark here. I used to bet on NBA matches with the first method and I think it can not be used, because the bookies always want to keep under -over ratings to 50-50 for all teams combine. Of course there are teams that will finish with f.e. 61-39 under - over, but the combined result is 50-50.

[sjuesju]

Today's matches:

Match

Bk L

% L

%i L

G L

Gm L

Avg. L

Avg.m L

Indiana - San Antonio	141.5	O	U	147.5	120	146.5	127.5
Chicago - Washington	157	O	U	154	131	152.5	148
Sacramento - New York	140.5	U	U	148.5	141.5	149	130.5