Joe's 2-1 System

Hi all am going to start recording my bets on here to see if i show profit and if i do then maybe i can joins odds against league table? My bet consists of chosing 12 teams (would wish to remain my reasoning behind selecting these teams secret) my selections change every week, anyway as i was saying i choose 12 teams and do them all to win 2-1 i cover these teams in £1 doubles totalling 66 bets. One double and i show a huge profit on the stake i reckon i need to nail one in every 3/4 bets. You lot may have to help me to record how i get on as my maths is not very clever when it comes to yield/profit/stake/loss???

My selections this week are:

Aston Villa
Fulham
Derby
Grimsby
Gillingham
Colchester
mansfield
Swansea
Cambridge
Bury
Hamilton
Stenhousemuir

Remember that's all to win 2-1 in doubles. Prices range from 10/1 to 25/1.
I have being using this system for a few months and so far i am in profit but will start again from today to see how i fare.
Joe Mavis

You don't need to be in profit to be included in the league. Systems will be included on request provided a minimum of 20 bets have been proofed. Just update the thread containing the league table with your results and I will update the table and delete the post each time.

I would suggest keeping two records of your bets. The first placing level stake singles on all your selections and the other your actual perm.

The level stake results can be included in the table as this will provide the best comparison. All the other systems are proofed to single bets.

I am not sure how many bets we should record for your perm. Should it be one bet 66 units placed or 66 bets at 1 unit each. Perhaps Joe or Mick could give an opinion here? Once we get that sorted out you can include both sets of results in the league table and demonstrate the advantages of the multiples against single, if an advantge exists.

Lets say you start with a bank of 100 units for the singles and after three weeks you have.

Bank 110.
Total bets 36
Your profit is obviously 10 units.
Your yield is profit/total stakes multiplied by 100
(10/36)*100 = 27%

Your starting bank for the doubles perm will obviously need to be bigger as each bet involves an outlay of 66 units compared to 12 on the singles and will also need to be large enough to survive the longest run of losers that you expect.

It is a good idea to set up a spreadsheet to record your bets and do all the calculations for you.

Joe

Have you thought of selecting the games on different days? That way you could have laying opportunties if you got a '2-1' scoreline up. You could still make a profit with just one '2-1' from 12 bets. It will take a lot of working out though!

it should be considered as 66 one-unit bets

But they are not independent. You cannot, for example, have 61 winners. Therefore it is not a direct comparison with 66 independent bets. But what difference does this make, if any?

Aston Villa Lost 3-0 >:
Fulham Drew 1-1 >:
Grimsby Drew 2-2 >:
Derby Lost 2-0 >:
Gillingham Lost 1-0 >:
Colchester Drew 1-1 >:
Mansfield Drew 2-2 >:
Swansea Lost 4-0 >:
Cambridge Drew 1-1 >:
Bury Drew 1-1 >:
Hamilton Lost 6-1 >:
Stenhousemuir Drew 3-3 >:

No winners this week although very close with two 2-2 draws and four 1-1 draws.

Week 1
Stake:66 units
Return:0 units
Loss:-66 units

I'm not sure how to deal with it. I think it is really comparing apples and oranges. 66 bets gives a somewhat false impression as it is really a block of 12 games being considered, not 66 discrete events as you say. Maybe 12 might be a better number in this sense.

It depends on what people want the table to tell them.

On balance it is probably best to consider it as 12 singles, as many of the other systems could be taken as part of multiples if people wanted - that is a staking rather than a selection issue. A note that the current implementation involves perming every double might suffice?

Am not sure how u want to display my system in your league table regarding my staking,but I trust you will do it in a fair manner. Here are this weeks selections once again I am doing 12 teams to win 2-1 in £1 doubles= 66 bets.


Charlton 25/1
Man City 12/1
Sunderland 20/1
Wallsal 12/1
Peterborough 25/1
Chesterfield 25/1
Ross County 14/1
St Mirren 18/1
Dumbarton 12/1
Montrose 12/1
Elgin 14/1

All prices with Ladbrokes. Wish me luck.

Joe, ideally I would like to have two entries in the table for your system. One tracking it as level stake singles and the other tracking your actual perm. To do this you would need to provide two sets of data for each update. If you want to do this let me know and I will explain what we need, otherwise we will just record the results of your perms.

I missed out West Brom from my list sorry!

Here is an update two this weekends games.


Charlton lost 2-0>:
Man City lost 1-0>: >
Sunderland lost 1-0>:
West Brom lost 1-0>:
Walsall WON 2-1 at 14/1
Peterborough won 1-0>:
Chesterfield lost 3-1>:
St Mirren lost 3-1>:
Montrose Drew 2-2>:
Elgin lost 4-0>:
Dumbarton lost 2-1>:



Have decided to follow singles and doubles but will display them seperatley. When can my system enter the league table Odds Against and can i have the two systems (singles and doubles seperate?)

So far:
Singles=
stake=24
return=15
Loss=9


Doubles=
Stake=132
Return=0
Loss=132

It can go in now. We will do an entry for each staking plan. This is the info we need for the table as an example. Each time you have an update please post it in this form in the thread containing the table.

Singles&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
Start Bank&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 100
Curr. Bank&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 91
Bets&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 24
Return&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 15
Profit&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -9
Yield&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -37.50%
Strike Rate&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 4.17%
Avg Odds&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ??
&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
Doubles&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
Start Bank&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 1000
Curr Bank&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 868
Bets&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 2
Stakes&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 132
Won&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0
Return&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0
Profit&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -132
Yield&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp -100.00%

I have assumed at starting bank of 1000 for the doubles but you can change this is you wish. Just let me know.

Thanks odds against for helping me and putting me in the table. Watch me shoot up the table cos i have a real good feeling about my system.

Okay only 7 games meeting my criteria needed in the midweek fixtures so just singles no doubles.1pt on each.

Northampton to win 2-1 Ladbrokes 14/1
Tranmere to win 2-1 Ladbrokes 20/1
Stranraer to win 2-1 Ladbrokes 14/1
Chesterfield to win 2-1 W.Hills 10/1
Boston to win 2/1 W.Hills 10/1
Clyde to win 2-1 W.Hills 12/1
C'Palace to win 2-1 W.Hills 10/1

Joe, just thinking about a more meaningful title for your system, for the league table. How About "The 2-1" system?

[Joe]

Should it be one bet 66 units placed or 66 bets at 1 unit each. Perhaps Joe or Mick could give an opinion here?

Seemed to have missed this.

Not sure if it's still relevant - Odds may have decided on something anyway. If proofing the 66 doubles, I'd classify as one bet. Basically it then becomes one bet (on whether an overall profit is return or not) at fairly normal odds instead of 66 huge priced bets. And as Odds says they are not all independent so it's not correct to treat as 66 anyway.

The alternative is to simply proof them as 12 singles.

Yup, one bet was what I did, see system's league. How about strike rate though, do we count a winner when there is a return or just a profit?

[Joe]

Bit tricky that, because this then becomes more like a spread bet in some senses.

I suppose you could calculate the strike rate using the 66 doubles.

No midweek winners so
Singles:
Start bank 100
Current bank 84
bets 31
return 15
profit -16
yield?????????

This weeks money making selections are:



Chelsea
Wolves
Stoke
Stockport
Notts Co
Bristol City
Brentford
Carlisle
Rushden
Q of the south
Alloa
Cowdenbeath

So thats 66 doubles and 12 singles a point each on them all to win 2-1.