Greyhound System helpers required

[Grex]

Originally Posted by Cassius Marcellus

Systems don't work.

A bit of a sweeping statement . I think if you look around the various threads on this section of the Forum, you will find that some systems DO work, even in the long-term.

[bunnychaser]

"If you're basing your system on time, all the calculations appear to be pointless. The RP shows the dogs fastest time on the form line. Just back the fastest dog. Alternately, lay the dog with the slowest 'fastest time' on the form line"


cassius there is alot more to this system than you care to take into mind
the whole idea of this thread is to work a system whether it works or not
why do you keep sticking your oar in where it is not wanted if you dont want to help out then thats fine but please leave us alone to get on with it and stop posting your oppinions where they are clearly not wanted

[Cassius Marcellus]

Originally Posted by bunnychaser

ok guys here goes

the system requires to have a account on the rp website which i think most here have we need to go to the dogs cards for the day for each race we add together the last 3 outings first bend times together and the last 3 race finish times together for each greyhound

so it should look like this

first bend
trap 1: 4.27+4.32+4.23=12.82

finish time
trap 1 added together 8652

trap2: 4.25+4.67+4.90=13.82

finish time added together 8412

etc

you do all 6 dogs and then you work out from 1 to 6 in order of merit example

trap1: first bend 1 finish time 2
trap2: first bend 2 finish time 1
trap3: first bend 4 finish time 6
trap4: first bend 5 finish time 4
trap5: first bend 3 finish time 3
trap6: first bend 6 finish time 5

add these 2 figures together
ie:
trap1 1+2=3
trap2 2+1=3
trap3 4+6=10
trap4 5+4=9
trap5 3+3=6
trap6 6+5=11

the dog with the highest number we lay off so we lay off trap 6

and i would dutch back traps 1 & 2

can you see how time consuming this can be with about 80 races a day thats why i am looking for help we each pick a meeting a day and share our selections i havnt done much on the backing side but when i have they have won out of each race meeting a day i have had only 1 winner but we cant do anything about dogs bumping and is to be expected

so if you want to test this theory with me please leave feedback here

regards

andy

Here's your feedback

Here are the first 6 races at each of this mornings meetings as I had 20 minutes to spare. It took a lot longer to type out than add up.

11-03 Co-top rated 1-3-5..........worst rated 2
11-11 top rated 3.....................worst rated 4
11-19 top rated 1.....................joint worst rated 2+6
11-28 top rated 3.....................worst rated 5
11-34 top rated 3.....................joint worst rated 2+5
11-44 top rated 4.....................worst rated 1
11-48 top rated 6.....................joint worst 1,2,3,4, and 5
11-57 top rated 3.....................worst rated 4
12-04 top rated 1.....................worst rated 5
12-12 joint top rated 5+6...........worst rated 3
12-18 top rated 6.....................joint worst rated 1+3
12-27 top rated 3.....................worst rated 5

FFT = Fastest fastest time on racecard
SFT = Slowest fastest time on racecard

...........FFT.........SFT
11-03.....6..........1+2
11-11.....6............5
11-19.....4............2
11-28.....6............1
11-34 ....6............5
11-44.....6............1
11-48.....4............5
11-57.....3............5
12-04...3+6...........4
12-12.....6............3
12-18.....5............6
12-27.....4............5

Results
11-03 1-5
11-11 2-4
11-19 5-6
11-28 2-6
11-34 4-5
11-44 3-5
11-48 1-3
11-57 6-3
12-04 3-4
12-12 3-5
12-18 2-6
12-27 6-3

Notes
11-03 Trap 1, the winner, was co-top rated, but on the racecard it was the joint slowest dog!!

11-11 The top rated dog (3) was unplaced. The worst rated dog (4) was 2nd. The fastest dog (6) was unplaced.

11-19 The top rated (1) and the fastest dog (4) were both unplaced

11-28 The top rated dog (3) was unplaced, the fastest dog (6) was 2nd

11-34 The top rated dog (3) was unplaced, the slowest dog (5) was 2nd. The fastest dog (6) was unplaced.

11-44 The top rated dog (4) was unplaced, as was the fastest dog (6)

11-48 The 6 dogs rating was 2, all 5 others were rated 8. The fastest dog was 4. The first 3 home were 1-3-2.

11-57 The top rated dog (3) was 2nd. It was also the fastest dog.

12-04 The top rated dog (1) was unplaced. The joint fastest dog (3) won. The slowest dog was 2nd.

12-12 The joint top rated dogs were 5+6. The fastest dog was (6). Trap 5 was 2nd, to the worst rated dog, and also the slowest dog (3)

12-18 The top rated dog (6) was also the dog with the slowest time!! The fastest dog (5) was unplaced.

12-27 The top rated dog (3) was 2nd. The fastest dog (4) was unplaced.

One co-rated winner in 12 races.

All the lays went okay until the 12-12 (10th race in) The winners S.P. was 5/1, and in my experience of prices of rags at dogs on Betfair, in all probability it was at least 12/1.

Grex,
There are systems that work, but a time based greyhound system is not one of them. There are far too many imponderables for it to succeed. Bunny isn't the first, and won't be the last, to try a system like this. I don't back or lay dogs much, but I know old hands who have been going for over 35 years, and they all say the same thing. Times mean nothing.

I shall now leave you in peace

[bunnychaser]

nice work with the system not betting on anything over 8.0 then i suppose it could have gone further i have taken into account of all you are saying and i am working on a spreadsheet and trying to incorporate
your suggestions and using a automated spreadsheet should make it quicker and probably better it could take a while but hey

i will carry on and see what it throws up in all forms of betting there are fixes bumping off days it goes with the territory just hopefully we can come up with something where the winners outweigh the losers and chuck us some profit thats the aim in this game

i have yet to put a staking plan in here but that will come but the truth of the matter is what races i have done i have ended up in profit
50% luck and 50% statistical probably

wow you must be good with a calculator

[Cassius Marcellus]

wow you must be good with a calculator

Not at all. All done using the old grey matter

I can't get a round peg in a round hole, and am the worlds worst DIY man. Give me four planks of wood, a saw and some plans for furniture, and I can make perfect firewood in under 20 minutes. But I have always been good at mental arithmetic, hence the 35 years working for different bookies apart from having other jobs. I have no idea why I'm good at it, it just came naturally as a kid.

Regarding the note on the other post about bitches returning from seasonal rest. They take 16 to 20 weeks to get back to top form, from the time they go into season.

I had my eyes open for two bitches for nearly a fortnight as they were due to approach their peak.

Beechwood Velvet and Heskeys Noelene, one at Newcastle and the other at Nottingham.

They both won last week, one at 7/2, the other at 9/4.

I was working at Cheltenham and missed them both.

[gamblermax]

with ref to this thread when you get your times why don't you put the ones down that are closest to the expected going like horses some dogs do not run their best unless they get the going they want give it a go

GM

[bunnychaser]

should have put a bet in the market on betfair using the new sp feature
not tried it myself yet but ime sure it will be winging its way into some automated systems.

having said that i have done a spreadsheet in excel that calculates all the time figures for you and gives the final result to lay it needs tidying up a little bit but next i am going to try and incorporate into it last 5 results at the same distance and then the grade of the race aswell using this information as a reduction factor or a bonus factor not sure yet how to do this only started using excel for the first time in my life last night

anyone want a copy of what ive done so far to play about with and tidy it up a bit you are more than welcome dont know how ime going to get it to you though maybe i could put a link to my website and sitck it on there
if that is allowed.

anyways i will percevere

[bunnychaser]

thanks max that sounds a cracker it goes on my list to add to the spreadsheet that should be quite easy to incorporate and will do that first
does the racing post supply these stats ?

[gamblermax]

Yes
Can you let me have a copy if pos what is the link

[bunnychaser]

Here is the link to the xls file the password is bunnychaser i have put a password on the rar file to protect it from stragglers stumbling across the site

http://sport-of-kings.co.nr/

The numbers on the one there are actually for the 4.47 at hove in a bit which is a no bet

[bunnychaser]

the rules i have been adopting with this system:

if there are two equal high numbers at the result there is no bet
if the odds to lay are above 8.0 there is no bet
if there are no 3 equal distances in the last 5 races we do not calculate that race
if in the last five one is a time trial at the same distance we miss this out and use the next in line use the same races for calculating finishing times and finishing positions omitting the time trial

i have added finishing times to the spreadsheet

still reading the instructions to add some other more complicated formulas

but please i advise you to paper trade until i have done tinkering and released some positive full results i would hate to be the one who costs you any hard earned cash i personally only use £2 stakes anyway but it does give me a realistic profit/loss to follow on a daily basis when i get a day to actually do every race still wanting peeps to take a race meeting on over a couple of days using the system so we can compare results and publish maybe with the spreadsheet making it easier we may get a few wanting to jump in you never know

i use a laptop next to my monitor with the racing post website on it to make it easier for filling in the spreadsheet
but the paper is just as easy if you do it in the morning but with using this spreadsheet i have managed to keep up with each race as it runs well the last 5 anyway in between playing around with the sheet and they all won or should i say lost

[gamblermax]

Bunny
I don't know if you want to add the trap that it is running in today and relivant trap in previous races might be something to look at if i think of any more will let you know

GM

[gamblermax]

Bunny
I've just done the 10.13 Romford and went the other way as i like going for winners so the lowest trap was 5 its score was 4 the next best was trap3 with 9 so trap 5 would have been the choice being 5 points clear and wins @5/1 i changed 1 or 2 of the inputs like going for the same trap will try again tomorrow and see what transpires will let you know

GM

[bunnychaser]

you must be doing something right because didnt get that calculation i got the lowest trap 5 but at 5 and it dosnt work unless your adjustments help i have had a few come in reversing but not very many with the lay side i lose 1 maybe 2 a day

the lay for that race where joint 1-4-6 with the lowest trap 5 something i am trying is if i get more than 1 lay result i remove the finish position times then that race would have been for me lay trap 6 with 5 still coming in with the lowest points and a probable winner

when i do the calculations i dont take into account trial times

my results for that race where as follows:

with finish position data included 13-10-8-13-5-13 in trap order

so i removed the finish position data as in the first second third and i got

9-9-6-8-5-11

so i took trap 6 as a clear layer and if i was a few quid up i would have dutched 2-3-5

thats how i do it anyway

[bunnychaser]

Selections for Crayford using bunnychaser spreadsheet 20th march 2008 2.18 No Bet 2.37 Lay trap 1 2.57 No Bet 3.17 No Bet 3.38 lay trap 1 3.58 Lay trap 2 4.18 Lay trap 2 4.37 Lay trap 6 4.57 No Bet 5.17 No Bet 5.33 Lay trap 1 5.47 No Bet 6.04 No Bet 6.18 Lay trap 6
remember no bets if the odds are over 8.0 paper trade only

[bunnychaser]

Selections for Romford using bunnychaser spreadsheet 20th march 2008
2.08	Lay trap 4
2.27	Lay trap 2
2.47	Lay trap 3
3.07	Lay trap 5
3.28	Lay trap 3