Football - Recent Form

[DataMiner]

Today's UK fixtures showing how each team has performed relative to the win odds offered over the most recent six games. the higher the figure the better the expected performance ... the lower the figure the worse the performance.

-0.47297	0.5625	-0.18421	-0.23133	0.561678	-0.33703	Bournemouth	Tranmere	-0.36939	-0.44164	-0.35479	-0.21148	0.455677	0.347623
0.595376	0.738806	0.414716	0.273105	-0.40046	0.614112	Carlisle	Northampton	0.672897	-0.556	0.744526	-0.34063	0.636364	-0.41841
-0.32558	-0.38356	-0.29979	0.830508	0.569496	-0.33493	Cheltenham	Leyton Orient	-0.40115	-0.35176	-0.51245	0.5189	0.665871	-0.41543
0.64121	0.576527	0.268547	0.297189	-0.41104	-0.47138	Doncaster	Oldham	0.563319	-0.54012	0.552716	0.415693	-0.44728	-0.52592
-0.36458	0.730769	0.451411	0.520548	-0.26071	-0.3642	Hartlepool	Yeovil	-0.44304	-0.33654	0.493121	-0.46823	-0.36307	0.667932
-0.38002	-0.45752	0.844617	0.670898	-0.46667	-0.27944	Millwall	Luton	-0.41891	-0.3214	-0.16949	-0.13462	0.647177	-0.46358
0.60114	-0.5456	-0.47458	-0.36307	-0.54306	0.617904	Nott'm Forest	Brighton	0.434572	-0.23171	0.716024	0.61475	-0.36515	0.453978
-0.24639	-0.36251	-0.13726	0.748201	-0.26871	-0.18182	Port Vale	Gillingham	-0.46205	-0.23948	-0.26071	-0.14508	-0.48611	0.534884
0.533333	-0.69583	-0.61728	-0.43532	0.561952	-0.38525	Swansea	Bristol Rvs	0.659367	-0.37695	-0.45603	-0.37037	-0.36138	-0.48611
-0.29106	-0.40462	0.527027	-0.31818	-0.39548	-0.26168	Swindon	Southend	0.641577	-0.41298	0.328215	-0.4375	0.628253	-0.41741
0.651047	0.522184	-0.55162	-0.51852	-0.26769	-0.26769	Walsall	Crewe	-0.38932	-0.25153	-0.32558	-0.55512	0.686099	0.564677
0.651047	0.790607	-0.34636	0.566026	-0.25641	-0.24902	Accrington	Milton Keynes Dons	0.484536	0.311701	0.548387	0.577295	0.343955	-0.45016
0.584076	-0.52671	-0.27335	0.591837	-0.55512	-0.28807	Bradford	Chesterfield	0.575243	0.64521	0.493121	-0.36364	-0.35587	0.435484
-0.175	0.73535	0.577805	0.59136	-0.35515	-0.22201	Bury	Mansfield	-0.44786	-0.3413	-0.37777	-0.28689	0.741697	-0.39106
0.469295	0.330784	-0.38932	-0.45752	0.42005	-0.54348	Darlington	Morecambe	-0.37736	-0.45603	-0.38106	-0.37333	0.545455	-0.40346
-0.37634	0.654321	-0.34861	0.450118	-0.23657	0.590643	Grimsby	Brentford	-0.27451	-0.54945	0.458204	-0.27723	-0.34843	0.478779
-0.27397	0.577039	-0.29851	0.607843	-0.40864	-0.3642	Lincoln	Hereford	-0.46512	-0.51622	0.545455	0.476048	0.488304	-0.5988
-0.29724	-0.43668	-0.26616	0.735849	0.575243	-0.20939	Macclesfield	Barnet	0.57395	-0.27888	-0.34688	-0.25926	0.486804	0.561129
0.333333	0.470499	0.515571	0.461952	-0.72841	-0.35053	Peterboro	Chester	-0.15766	-0.16868	-0.47297	-0.39437	-0.29474	0.738318
-0.45016	-0.44728	0.580336	-0.32258	0.444003	-0.43317	Rochdale	Rotherham	-0.3794	-0.62389	-0.38314	-0.38717	0.552716	-0.52083
-0.37982	-0.37294	-0.41642	-0.34483	-0.37433	-0.34146	Shrewsbury	Notts County	-0.4397	-0.36307	-0.45307	-0.41469	-0.13726	0.632931
-0.29228	-0.46053	0.678161	-0.19178	0.551282	-0.28747	Wrexham	Dag and Red	0.666667	0.718876	-0.3132	-0.54988	-0.17834	-0.46358
0.650175	-0.38002	0.587021	0.365942	-0.2935	0.603399	Wycombe	Stockport	0.556962	0.71134	0.4614	0.52381	0.610679	0.38326
-0.16018	-0.42093	0.625067	-0.41716	-0.25613	-0.13488	Altrincham	Stafford Rangers	-0.18158	-0.45455	-0.24255	-0.23179	-0.36138	-0.22166
-0.37879	-0.41032	0.605634	-0.44444	0.636175	-0.22343	Crawley Town	Aldershot	-0.57096	0.453978	0.307616	0.654321	0.340866	0.253731
-0.38803	-0.12844	-0.14894	-0.12844	-0.41347	-0.14989	Droylsden	Halifax	0.486427	-0.38568	0.759698	0.681818	-0.26566	-0.45307
-0.21957	-0.48276	0.536424	-0.556	-0.35714	-0.25381	Ebbsfleet	Cambridge	0.441341	0.597701	-0.53394	0.358974	-0.44728	-0.71356
0.646107	-0.40745	0.723866	-0.33654	-0.19858	-0.35897	Farsley	Burton	-0.54306	-0.37195	0.602273	-0.41104	0.333333	0.397072
-0.43103	-0.57613	-0.18325	0.492017	0.545455	-0.32483	Histon	Grays	-0.22501	0.69163	-0.34568	-0.39818	0.440448	0.295775
-0.43559	-0.15837	0.417637	0.541284	-0.22588	-0.22668	Kidderminster	Rushden & D	0.448385	0.513889	0.598854	0.740741	-0.30043	-0.43805
0.285714	-0.30108	-0.40161	-0.41056	0.552716	0.64521	Oxford	Stevenage	-0.61135	0.426386	0.623656	-0.52317	0.398108	0.430894
0.388112	-0.7617	-0.50179	-0.45016	-0.48951	0.397071	Torquay	Forest Green	-0.50872	0.568434	-0.43344	0.450118	-0.47945	0.421009
-0.37534	0.713115	-0.47138	-0.18088	-0.34965	-0.14721	Weymouth	Exeter	0.598854	0.303483	0.307616	-0.42814	-0.38889	0.400685
-0.46205	-0.63985	-0.32037	-0.59778	-0.19663	-0.24196	Woking	Salisbury	0.626667	0.23913	-0.34432	-0.39886	-0.63694	-0.48276
-0.38147	-0.26515	-0.43695	0.591837	0.671824	-0.369	York	Northwich	0.799139	-0.32407	0.60452	0.635985	-0.46205	0.551282

All I need now is to know how to use the information, of if in fact it has any use at all.

DM

[Football-Tipper]

Interesting...

From your figures i'd have

Bournemouth Draw 9/4
Carlise home win 4/5
Cheltenham Draw 12/5
Doncaster home win 7/10
Hartlepool Home win 18/19
Millwall home win 9/10
Brighton Away win 4/1
Port Vale home win 7/5
Swansea draw 3/1
Southend away win 8/5
Wallsall Draw 5/2
MK Dons away win 3/4
Chesterfield away win 7/4
Bury home win 11/10
Darlington home win 4/6
Grimsby home win 11/10
Lincoln draw 12/5
Barnet away win 9/5
Posh home win 2/5
Rochdale home win 6/5
Notts County away win 5/2
Wrexham draw 12/5
Stockport away win 2/1

Just rough predictions working it out in my head

1pt each bet 23 pts staked

[Grex]

Originally Posted by DataMiner

Today's UK fixtures showing how each team has performed relative to the win odds offered over the most recent six games. the higher the figure the better the expected performance ... the lower the figure the worse the performance.

How do you calculate the performance figures..... for a loss, it seems to be 1/(decimal odds)..... but for a win??.... or am I just being stoopid

[DataMiner]

Originally Posted by Grex

How do you calculate the performance figures..... for a loss, it seems to be 1/(decimal odds)..... but for a win??.... or am I just being stoopid

I used average win odds available, individually for home & away team, then converted to p as you figured out . . . then . . .
If not win, rating = -p
If w, rating = 1-p

So, a team average 1/2 (1.5) to win, p=0.66
if win, awarded (1-0.66) = 0.33
if lose awarded rating of -0.66

A team average 4/1 (5.0) to win, p=0.20
if win awarded (1-0.20) = 0.80
if lose awarded match rating of -0.20

The procedure just uses the bookies as an expert witness for the probability figure then awards perfromance ratings based upon how they played against that "expert" expectation. The 4/1 team was not considered a hot-shot, so a win would give a bigger reward than the 2/1 on team would get for winning. Equally, the 2/1 on team would be penalised more for losing.

The process seemed to be based upon a certain logic, but like much in football betting, squeezing a profit from the figures does not appear an easy task.

DM