Dusty LoonGoons Aways

[lunatism]

Here is the confirmed list of selections - nothing removed, but a few games added:

LEAGUE	SELECTION	ODDS	STAKE
English League Two	Darlington FC	2.50	2.50 pts
English League Two	Hereford United FC	2.08	2.50 pts
English League Two	Peterborough United FC	2.00	2.50 pts
English National League Conference - North	Boston United FC	2.00	2.50 pts
English National League Conference - North	Hyde United FC	2.20	2.50 pts

Good luck!

[dustbin2]

Hi loon for tonight , some good picks I think. Bit nervous tho

[lunatism]

SELECTION	RESULT	RETURN
Darlington FC	0 - 0	0.00
Hereford United FC	0 - 1	5.20
Peterborough United FC	1 - 2	5.00
Boston United FC	1 - 0	0.00
Hyde United FC	2 - 0	0.00

TOTAL STAKED	12.50
TOTAL RETURNED	10.20
P / L	-2.30
YIELD	-18%
STRIKE RATE	40%
CURRENT BANK	97.70
NEXT UNIT STAKE	2.44

Right, so not the perfect start we dreamed of, but not to worry, this will pick up There will be more games at the weekend, not sure of any in the week yet....but will keep checking and post when i know!

[lunatism]

LEAGUE	SELECTION	ODDS	STAKE
English League Two	Bradford City FC	2.55	2.44 pts

Good Luck!!

[dustbin2]

we should have known that would happen after going live, your right though mate, no need to worry. We've done our testing and know we will take a few loses, wasnt a great night for most of the football systems on here. We will be back in profit by the weekend if not tonight.

[dustbin2]

Bradford 0-1

Back into profit Roll on the weekend boys

[lunatism]

TOTAL STAKED	14.84
TOTAL RETURNED	16.17
P / L	1.33
YIELD	8.94%
STRIKE RATE	50%
STARTING BANK	100
CURRENT BANK	101.33
NEXT UNIT STAKE	2.53

[dustbin2]

Hope I didnt steal your thunder with the dancing cows loon, and maybe it was a bit excessive for a profit of 1.33 pts but what the .... Profit is profit! Suspect there wont be any picks from tonights games but a load at the weekend.

[hamcat]

nice one will be following this system would do your other system loon but i don,t think my bank account can take two more accounts anyway keep up the good work roll on saterday

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by hamcat

nice one will be following this system would do your other system loon but i don,t think my bank account can take two more accounts anyway keep up the good work roll on saterday

to PL Hamcat! It's nice to know there are a least a handful of people that are finding this helpful! (although bank increase of 1.33 isn't much to write home about!).

Right now, there are about 17 qualifying selections between today and monday but i guess that number will change over the weekend. I'll post the ones for the weekend tomorrow

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by dustbin2

Hope I didnt steal your thunder with the dancing cows loon, and maybe it was a bit excessive for a profit of 1.33 pts but what the .... Profit is profit! Suspect there wont be any picks from tonights games but a load at the weekend.

forget it's 1.33 pts from a starting bank of and think of it like this - 8% yield in just a few days, which is not a bad way to start for a system we "know" (well...the stats say) works pretty well. And with the leagues included under review every week, in theory at least, the reliability of the selections should increase week by week! There are a lot of games over the weekend, so we'll be able to have a better initial picture after that

[Grex]

I am amazed at the commitment and enthusiasm of you guys (Dusty, Lunatism & HappyGooner) . I will be following your system to see how it pans out. I wish you every success .

However, the pessimistic side of my character prompted me to write the following comments in my "Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2" thread:

What is going on in English League 2? So far, this season, there have been 41% away wins compared with an average of 27% over the previous 5 seasons. Is there a logical explanation for this phenomenon, or is it simply an extraordinary statistical aberration?
There has been no change to the inherent advantage of being the home team…. its players continue to be more familiar with the playing surface conditions; they don’t have a long and tiring journey to get to the stadium; hopefully the home team continues to get the vast majority of vocal support from the spectators. Could there be a psychological explanation?…. perhaps, once the trend started early in the season, home team players lost confidence and became nervous, resulting in under-par performances….. but, I don’t think so.
I think it is simply a statistical “blip”, admittedly a big one… but, for me, there is no other explanation. I know that Dusty, Lunatism and HappyGooner are hoping to take advantage of this abnormality in English League 2 and other leagues (see “Dusty and LoonGoon’s Aways” thread), but I can’t help feeling there may be some advantage in actually opposing the statistical anomaly and adopting a “contrary” approach by selectively backing the home team.
I hope for D, L and HG’s sake that I’m wrong.
Anybody got any views on this?

This is not meant as a put-down of your system.... simply a subjective opinion from an eternal pessimist
I am sure after the weekend I will be eating my words

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Grex

I am amazed at the commitment and enthusiasm of you guys (Dusty, Lunatism & HappyGooner) . I will be following your system to see how it pans out. I wish you every success .

However, the pessimistic side of my character prompted me to write the following comments in my "Yet Another Paul Ross Ratings System - Part 2" thread:

What is going on in English League 2? So far, this season, there have been 41% away wins compared with an average of 27% over the previous 5 seasons. Is there a logical explanation for this phenomenon, or is it simply an extraordinary statistical aberration?
There has been no change to the inherent advantage of being the home team…. its players continue to be more familiar with the playing surface conditions; they don’t have a long and tiring journey to get to the stadium; hopefully the home team continues to get the vast majority of vocal support from the spectators. Could there be a psychological explanation?…. perhaps, once the trend started early in the season, home team players lost confidence and became nervous, resulting in under-par performances….. but, I don’t think so.
I think it is simply a statistical “blip”, admittedly a big one… but, for me, there is no other explanation. I know that Dusty, Lunatism and HappyGooner are hoping to take advantage of this abnormality in English League 2 and other leagues (see “Dusty and LoonGoon’s Aways” thread), but I can’t help feeling there may be some advantage in actually opposing the statistical anomaly and adopting a “contrary” approach by selectively backing the home team.
I hope for D, L and HG’s sake that I’m wrong.
Anybody got any views on this?

This is not meant as a put-down of your system.... simply a subjective opinion from an eternal pessimist
I am sure after the weekend I will be eating my words

Well the good thing about the choice of leagues we use, is that it's not static, and so if league two were to suddenly hit that inevitable downer, we'd be well placed to spot that trend and "jump ship" before we staked away our life savings But here's to hoping that doesn't happen!

There are other leagues which follow a similar pattern, and although not in a position to comment on the overall home win / draw / away win percentages for each league over the last few seasons (although i could...i do have the backdata to do a "little" test like that!), i'm happy that we review each league weekly.

But I can definitely see where you're going, and maybe we could spawn the opposite of this thread (with complete lack of imagination) "the opposite of Dusty LoonGoons Aways".....with certain criteria that look at the most weak of suggestions and say "hey, the home side might actually win that!". of course i won't though

Another reason why we might be able to avoid any returns to normal percentages (in terms of away wins), are that the adiidtional criteria i look at "help" to weed out some of the really really tight fixtures, and that's why there wont be 100's of selections a week. Hopefully, these criteria will help in batting away that problem

Looking through the stats i have on this, removing League Two wouldn't affect the strike rate and yield too much anyway (dropping overall yield to 13% and strike rate to 45%), so it's not something that would shouldn't be able to handle

Without League two as part of the "F1 consortium" (sounds clever, right?), the yield for just those leagues would be 51% with a 60% strike rate. And i don't think that each of the other leagues are under blips too....but who really knows for sure!

I guess the thing about betting is to spot a trend and exploit it as long as it last, and if all we are sitting on is a temporary trend, we should all get as much out as possible

Thanks for your input

[lunatism]

oh yea, the problem with going opposite, is that the odds wouldn't be as appealing, and the number of losses you'd meet (at present anyway) might greatly shrink your bank balance! but maybe something to look into in the future....

[Grex]

Thanks for your response..... comprehensive as always

Originally Posted by lunatism

oh yea, the problem with going opposite, is that the odds wouldn't be as appealing, and the number of losses you'd meet (at present anyway) might greatly shrink your bank balance! but maybe something to look into in the future....

You're right about the less appealing odds..... but I was suggesting selective home bets, not blanket coverage!!

It's interesting to note that the average Bet365 odds for English League 2 "aways" last season was 3.45..... for the current season, given the high % of away wins, you would have expected a marked decrease in this average... it has reduced, but only slightly to 3.43. I realise that season H-D-A trends form only a minor element of the bookies' odds-fixing strategy, but I'm surprised this statistical anomoly hasn't had a bigger impact.

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Grex

Thanks for your response..... comprehensive as always



You're right about the less appealing odds..... but I was suggesting selective home bets, not blanket coverage!!

It's interesting to note that the average Bet365 odds for English League 2 "aways" last season was 3.45..... for the current season, given the high % of away wins, you would have expected a marked decrease in this average... it has reduced, but only slightly to 3.43. I realise that season H-D-A trends form only a minor element of the bookies' odds-fixing strategy, but I'm surprised this statistical anomoly hasn't had a bigger impact.

of course, that would make a lot more sense! well how about this....you set out some ground rules about how you would be selective in your selections, and then each time i put some up, you note down which you'd do the opposite for. In no time at all i'm sure you would see how profitable this would be (and of course, keep us informed of progress)

Perhaps laying the away would be more succesful if you wanted to pursue this strategy though? That way you are covered for draws too, and laying odds wouldn't be high since these would be tight games to start off with

[Grex]

Thanks, Lunatism, for the concrete suggestion....... but I will decline your kind offer..... I have enough on my plate maintaining my PR Ratings system.... and, anyway, I´m trying to get myself a life

[lunatism]

Originally Posted by Grex

Thanks, Lunatism, for the concrete suggestion....... but I will decline your kind offer..... I have enough on my plate maintaining my PR Ratings system.... and, anyway, I´m trying to get myself a life

dear Grex, are you saying I haven't got a life?!! shocking! i just have lots and lots of free time to do what I will (well, apart from estudiando español y húngaro, but that's a different story).

i might even look into it, but goon would tell you, i'm hopeless when it comes to playing with lays (and trading in general i guess)