Dusty LoonGoons Aways - The Punters Lounge

dustbin2 · 08-03-2008, 21:35

Welcome folks to the new ( and hopefully improved thread )

4 weeks ago I started a basic system which chose the British leagues with the highest percentage of away wins. I reasoned that if I then chose the away teams from that league with the superior 6 match form than there opponents, I would increase the chances of the already likely away win! Simple but it seemed to work, 4 weeks on we had a strike rate of around 40% and a yield of 11% I also reasoned if these picks were at evens or above i could afford a few loses.

This weekend was not good which reduced these figures a bit BUT Lunatism and the gooner have done sterling work adding a few filters to my basic system and it seems we have improved strike rate and yield by picking world leagues for which this streamlined system works well.

As I understand , the Loon will post the system picks which could be daily , the system is in his computer and uses the best performing leagues, so leagues might change as we go on.

A staking plan will be posted as this system will go live right away, and i think we will update system results weekly. The Loon and the goon will add their thoughts to this. So

we accept no responsibility for monies lost but will accept all donations to future system research and nights on the p..s

rich46 · 08-03-2008, 21:45

Best of luck Guys,will be following

And heres hoping

dustbin2 · 08-03-2008, 21:46

Cheers Richy , good to have you onboard

happygooner · 08-03-2008, 22:05

Wow....I hardly feel like i've done anything but recognise the potential. good luck and if any help is required i'm more than willing!

jtw1 · 08-03-2008, 22:09

All the best of luck , boys .

dustbin2 · 08-03-2008, 22:10

You had valuable input early on mate

The loon does a lot of the work but then he doesnt sleep

Just keep them crossed

happygooner · 08-03-2008, 22:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by dustbin2

The loon does a lot of the work but then he doesnt sleep

Yeah I think he runs on Duracel batteries

lunatism · 09-03-2008, 02:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

Yeah I think he runs on Duracel batteries

something like that

any selections for today on the other thread? Because I have two for today if you think we should start now?! but one is below 2.00...and (thinking long term) I don't know whether we should be taking under 2.00 or not

dustbin2 · 09-03-2008, 07:25

Hey loon, just heading to work..yes I know its Sunday but the fire service runs 365 days a year Im afraid.

I personnally think we should keep above evens as the few ( hopefully ) loses we have are more than compensated by the evens or over winners. Start tomorrow if you like mate, new week, new start. Will check in tonight, hope the name and explanation are ok?

dustbin2 · 09-03-2008, 17:28

A nice win with Wrexham today with the old system, a few picks midweek I would think looking at league two and the Scots leagues so hopefully a flying start

Looking forward as always to the stats from the tech expert

lunatism · 09-03-2008, 17:46

well taking up your advice of only backing the over 2's would have been profitable today, since the selection was Everton

....but had my money tied up in other matches so couldn't take advantage of that!

Later on in the day (after midnight), the opening stats will be posted, and then i'll suggest (and you can agree/disagree) what leagues we should be looking at for the coming week!

Since it will only be F1's (since they are showing consistent profit), there won't be such a HUUUUUUUGE quantity of selections as with your unfiltered version, but hopefully

we'll see the same kind of positive strike rate that they have been enjoying over the last few weeks of testing!

i guess one day, the easiest thing for me to do would be to set up a website and start posting my entire daily ratings, that way other people could experiment with how different rated matches can be manipulated for greater profits.....but that's a while off yet

...anyway - we can see what happens after midnight

dustbin2 · 09-03-2008, 18:46

Loon you do that website and we will have to pay you for all your hard work

I understand there wont be as much selections as with my basic method but then again, strike rate, profit and yield should still be better with the F1.

Im more than happy to go with your selected leagues mate, thats whats been working so why change it.

looking forward to your stats, catch them in the morning before work.

for the F1s

lunatism · 10-03-2008, 00:35

Right, here are the stats to start the ball rolling for this thread. Anyone who doesn't know what anything means, feel free to ask (or just find the old thread and it's pretty much explained there).

	BETS	WINS	LOSSES	STRIKE	STAKED	RETURN	P/L	YIELD	CONFIDENCE
Australian A-League	0	0	0	0%	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A	N/A
Belgian Jupiler League	16	9	7	56%	16.00	22.50	6.50	41%	88%
English Premiership	21	12	9	57%	21.00	30.00	9.00	43%	93%
English Championship	20	4	16	20%	20.00	10.00	-10.00	-50%	84%
English League One	28	10	18	36%	28.00	25.00	-3.00	-11%	0%
English League Two	31	21	10	68%	31.00	52.50	21.50	69%	100%
English National Conference	24	6	18	25%	24.00	15.00	-9.00	-38%	79%
English National League Conference - North	22	16	6	73%	22.00	40.00	18.00	82%	100%
English National League Conference - South	20	11	9	55%	20.00	27.50	7.50	38%	94%
English Isthmian Premier Division (Ryman)	24	10	14	42%	24.00	25.00	1.00	4%	33%
English Northern Premier Division (UniBond)	12	5	7	42%	12.00	12.50	0.50	4%	46%
English Southern Premier Division (Southern)	25	15	10	60%	25.00	37.50	12.50	50%	99%
French Ligue 1	12	1	11	8%	12.00	2.50	-9.50	-79%	93%
French Ligue 2	6	3	3	50%	6.00	7.50	1.50	25%	61%
French National League	12	3	9	25%	12.00	7.50	-4.50	-38%	46%
German 1.Bundesliga	6	2	4	33%	6.00	5.00	-1.00	-17%	0%
German 2.Bundesliga	4	1	3	25%	4.00	2.50	-1.50	-38%	0%
Grecian Super League	9	4	5	44%	9.00	10.00	1.00	11%	52%
Italian Serie A	14	3	11

08-03-2008, 21:35	#1 (permalink)
dustbin2 the dust Join Date: 27 Dec 2007 Location: kirkcaldy, fife Age: 37 Posts: 154	Dusty LoonGoons Aways Welcome folks to the new ( and hopefully improved thread ) 4 weeks ago I started a basic system which chose the British leagues with the highest percentage of away wins. I reasoned that if I then chose the away teams from that league with the superior 6 match form than there opponents, I would increase the chances of the already likely away win! Simple but it seemed to work, 4 weeks on we had a strike rate of around 40% and a yield of 11% I also reasoned if these picks were at evens or above i could afford a few loses. This weekend was not good which reduced these figures a bit BUT Lunatism and the gooner have done sterling work adding a few filters to my basic system and it seems we have improved strike rate and yield by picking world leagues for which this streamlined system works well. As I understand , the Loon will post the system picks which could be daily , the system is in his computer and uses the best performing leagues, so leagues might change as we go on. A staking plan will be posted as this system will go live right away, and i think we will update system results weekly. The Loon and the goon will add their thoughts to this. So we accept no responsibility for monies lost but will accept all donations to future system research and nights on the p..s

08-03-2008, 21:45	#2 (permalink)
rich46 Junior Punter Join Date: 30 Mar 2007 Posts: 82	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Best of luck Guys,will be following And heres hoping

08-03-2008, 21:46	#3 (permalink)
dustbin2 the dust Join Date: 27 Dec 2007 Location: kirkcaldy, fife Age: 37 Posts: 154	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Cheers Richy , good to have you onboard Last edited by dustbin2; 08-03-2008 at 22:08.

08-03-2008, 22:05	#4 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,426	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Wow....I hardly feel like i've done anything but recognise the potential. good luck and if any help is required i'm more than willing!

08-03-2008, 22:09	#5 (permalink)
jtw1 God Punter Join Date: 05 Nov 2004 Age: 47 Posts: 2,746	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways All the best of luck , boys . Last edited by jtw1; 08-03-2008 at 22:09.

08-03-2008, 22:10	#6 (permalink)
dustbin2 the dust Join Date: 27 Dec 2007 Location: kirkcaldy, fife Age: 37 Posts: 154	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways You had valuable input early on mate The loon does a lot of the work but then he doesnt sleep Just keep them crossed

09-03-2008, 07:25	#9 (permalink)
dustbin2 the dust Join Date: 27 Dec 2007 Location: kirkcaldy, fife Age: 37 Posts: 154	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Hey loon, just heading to work..yes I know its Sunday but the fire service runs 365 days a year Im afraid. I personnally think we should keep above evens as the few ( hopefully ) loses we have are more than compensated by the evens or over winners. Start tomorrow if you like mate, new week, new start. Will check in tonight, hope the name and explanation are ok?

09-03-2008, 17:28	#10 (permalink)
dustbin2 the dust Join Date: 27 Dec 2007 Location: kirkcaldy, fife Age: 37 Posts: 154	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways A nice win with Wrexham today with the old system, a few picks midweek I would think looking at league two and the Scots leagues so hopefully a flying start Looking forward as always to the stats from the tech expert

09-03-2008, 17:46	#11 (permalink)
lunatism ...a little crazy Join Date: 21 Jul 2006 Location: Wolverhampton, UK Age: 20 Posts: 659	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways well taking up your advice of only backing the over 2's would have been profitable today, since the selection was Everton ....but had my money tied up in other matches so couldn't take advantage of that! Later on in the day (after midnight), the opening stats will be posted, and then i'll suggest (and you can agree/disagree) what leagues we should be looking at for the coming week! Since it will only be F1's (since they are showing consistent profit), there won't be such a HUUUUUUUGE quantity of selections as with your unfiltered version, but hopefully we'll see the same kind of positive strike rate that they have been enjoying over the last few weeks of testing! i guess one day, the easiest thing for me to do would be to set up a website and start posting my entire daily ratings, that way other people could experiment with how different rated matches can be manipulated for greater profits.....but that's a while off yet ...anyway - we can see what happens after midnight __________________ lunatism [loo-na-ti-zam]: common sense, local lore & statisticus

09-03-2008, 18:46	#12 (permalink)
dustbin2 the dust Join Date: 27 Dec 2007 Location: kirkcaldy, fife Age: 37 Posts: 154	Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Loon you do that website and we will have to pay you for all your hard work I understand there wont be as much selections as with my basic method but then again, strike rate, profit and yield should still be better with the F1. Im more than happy to go with your selected leagues mate, thats whats been working so why change it. looking forward to your stats, catch them in the morning before work. for the F1s