do arbs opportunities really just offer value?

[statman john]

this forum seems to have a wealth of knowledge so i though i would just ask the question before starting research.

Ive noticed that when there is an arb opportunity (or close to it), especially at low odds, the result often comes in. Does anyone have any research on whether these odds are really offering value? Betfair etc will normay find a more realistic value for the market but where this figure might go below a bookies fixed odds then it will not go below this figure as it just creates arb oppportunities, therefore is it a marginally higher price than it should be?

If that is the case then I would think it reasonable to bet with the bookmaker (therefore not paying commission unless obviously the exchange is better priced) and over time it should produce a positive return?

All comments appreciated.

thanks
smj

[davidc]

Hi statman john to The Punters Lounge.

I don't have any figures on whether low price favourites win often enough to be able to make a profit from backing that side of an arb but my gut instinct says no.

I started arbing just before the abolition of betting tax and well remember my first arb - which could easily have been my last. The bets where on a rugby match with a short priced favourite and the arbitrage was fairly small (I think around 3%) so I considered not backing the draw to improve the %. If I had done that I would have lost around £500, which was a large portion of my betting bank at that time, as the game ended up as a draw @ 25/1.

Arbing works because bookies sometimes have different opinions on the outcome of an event or because one bookie moves their line to balance his books and inadvertently creates an arb, and these can be exploited by the arber. The point is that not all low price favourites win and unless you have filters in place or a system to select the most likely winners then you would IMO be betting blind.

Good luck.