Convict Capers

[Hands Solo]

Being an Aussie, I'm not adverse to the odd bit of thieving here and there, and that's exactly what I'm doing here. This time I'm stealing the wonderful selections of Ads25, who has a computer predictions thing that he runs for AFL football, which is one of those strange sports only us convicts play. You can generally find these predictions here: AFL Football 2007 - Computer Generated Predictions and in the weekly AFL thread.

The way I'll be running this is with two bets per game based on the predictions. The first is a primary margin bet, with the margin options always Under or Over 39.5pts. This bet is available at a number of online bookies. The other bet will be an exact margin bet. This one is a really glory shot but Ads predictions are something to behold, so I'm happy to go with this one too. This bet is exclusive to the TAB.

For record keeping purposes each normal margin bet will be for 20pts and each exact margin bet will be for 2pts. I'll arbitrarily nominate a starting bank of 2000pts.

[Hands Solo]

Ads' predictions for this week:

Richmond	33	60	86	105
W.Bulldogs	20	33	59	86
St Kilda	15	36	67	89
Essendon	34	57	79	102
Collingwood	26	44	63	88
Port Adelaide	19	50	83	100
Kangaroos	20	38	49	70
Brisbane	16	41	67	93
Adelaide	24	49	67	77
Sydney	24	37	60	86
Hawthorn	10	27	51	75
Geelong	33	61	85	109
Melbourne	25	37	60	84
Fremantle	24	54	91	109
West Coast	37	72	93	119
Carlton	16	31	58	79

[Hands Solo]

One match tonight, Richmond v Western Bulldogs. Richmond are outsiders here so there should be some value to be had.

Bets:
20pts Richmond to win by less than 39.5pts @ 3.40 TAB
2pts Richmond to win by 19-20pts @ 35.00 TAB

[Barebear]

There just had to be a team in there called the Kangaroos, eh

Good luck on this one Bruce, hope it's fair dinkum.

[Hands Solo]

Cheers Barebear Unfortunately this one kicks off with a loser but I'm sure that we'll get underway in no time.

Games Betted: 1
Profitable Games: 0
SR: 0%
Total Staked: 22pts
Total Return: 0pts
P/L: -22pts
Starting Bank: 2000
Current Bank: 1978

--------------------

Normal Margin Bets: 1
Wins: 0
Staked: 20pts
Return: 0pts
P/L: -20pts

Exact Margin Bets: 1
Wins: 0
Staked: 2pts
Return: 0pts
P/L: -2pts

[staffy]

Good lcuk with this CP.

[Hands Solo]

Thanks Staffy. Tomorrow's games bets are:

20pts Essendon to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.75 Centrebet
2pts Essendon to win by 13-14pts @ 35.00 TAB

20pts Sydney to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.45 TAB
2pts Sydney to win by 9-10pts @ 31.00 TAB

20pts Port Adelaide to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.54 Betfair
2pts Port Adelaide to win by 11-12pts @ 35.00 TAB

20pts Brisbane to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.30 Betfair
2pts Brisbane to win by 23-24pts @ 31.00 TAB

[ads25]

Great work here Crouch. Only just noticed this thread. All seems to be going well so far too. Two more winners today with Essendon & Port Adelaide getting up, you can actually look at those two wins as being slight upsets so the predictions are working well.

Will follow with interest Crouch

[Hands Solo]

Cheers Ads, unfortunately my team the Lions have been defeated so that puts me 2/4 from the weekend, with the Swans needing to lift too. Still, playing these margins means that 50% strike rate will show a tidy profit, so we're still in reasonable shape so far.

[Hands Solo]

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Thanks Staffy. Tomorrow's games bets are:

20pts Essendon to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.75 Centrebet
2pts Essendon to win by 13-14pts @ 35.00 TAB

20pts Sydney to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.45 TAB
2pts Sydney to win by 9-10pts @ 31.00 TAB

20pts Port Adelaide to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.54 Betfair
2pts Port Adelaide to win by 11-12pts @ 35.00 TAB

20pts Brisbane to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.30 Betfair
2pts Brisbane to win by 23-24pts @ 31.00 TAB

No exact margin wins, but both Essendon and Port Adelaide Normal margin bets are winners. The only two games fail to bring home the bacon.

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Ignore the $ signs, I've just made a bit of an excel sheet and so I just set it to a currency so it's easier to read (I'm too lazy to change back for these purposes)

Overall
Bets: 10
Wins: 2
Total Staked: $110.00
Total Returned: $104.26
Profit: -$5.74
S/R: 20.00%
Yield: -5.22%

Normal Margins
Bets: 5
Wins: 2
Total Staked: $100.00
Total Returned: $104.26
Profit: $4.26
S/R: 40.00%
Yield: 4.26%

Exact Margins
Bets: 5
Wins: 0
Total Staked: $10.00
Total Returned: $0.00
Profit: -$10.00
S/R: 0.00%
Yield: -100.00%

[Hands Solo]

20pts Geelong by 1-39pts @ 2.31 Betfair**
2pts Geelong by 33-34pts @ 31.00 TAB

20pts Fremantle by 1-39 @ 2.27 Betfair**
2pts Fremantle by 25-26 @ 28.00 TAB

20pts West Coast by 40+ @ 2.27 Betfair**
2pts West Coast by 39-40pts @ 26.00 TAB

** Denotes odds are already adjusted for any pending commission

[ads25]

This is actually a good system Crouch. The fact we only have 2 winning bets from 10 yet we are still pretty much breaking even is fantastic. Once we get around where thigns go our way there will be plenty of profit.

The fact that the Under/Over 39.5 margins always pay over $2.00 means that over 4 winners in a round will be a good pay day, and its easily possible to do. Some strange results this weekend anyway, i wouldnt of picked Kangaroos or Adelaide beating their oponents last night

[Hands Solo]

Net has been dead all day, at a cafe atm so can't update, but 1/3 today and slightly down on the day.

Gotta agree too Ads, with margins paying over 2.00 a 4/8 weekend which you had last week will show a decent profit. That's only normal margins too, the exact margins will do nicely and with the accuracy you had in the NBL I'm pretty confident you'll get half a dozen or so this year. You don't even need to get the scores right, just the margins!

So overall there'll be a bit of a loss this weekend but we came pretty close. One kick would have got the Freo margin right and one kick in the Pies game would have got us an exact margin! I think we'll be hitting the jackpot soon Ads.

[ads25]

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Net has been dead all day, at a cafe atm so can't update, but 1/3 today and slightly down on the day.

Gotta agree too Ads, with margins paying over 2.00 a 4/8 weekend which you had last week will show a decent profit. That's only normal margins too, the exact margins will do nicely and with the accuracy you had in the NBL I'm pretty confident you'll get half a dozen or so this year. You don't even need to get the scores right, just the margins!

So overall there'll be a bit of a loss this weekend but we came pretty close. One kick would have got the Freo margin right and one kick in the Pies game would have got us an exact margin! I think we'll be hitting the jackpot soon Ads.

Was a poor round, a hell of a lot of upsets. A tippers nightmare really and no way every round will be like that. Amazing really considering such a bad round yet we didnt really make that much of a loss.

Keep plugging away, as the results keep on coming in, the more data my system has to analyse and the more accurate it will hopefully.

[Hands Solo]

Originally Posted by ads25

Was a poor round, a hell of a lot of upsets. A tippers nightmare really and no way every round will be like that. Amazing really considering such a bad round yet we didnt really make that much of a loss.

Keep plugging away, as the results keep on coming in, the more data my system has to analyse and the more accurate it will hopefully.

That's a big thing I think. As you have more data to use I'm confident that things will get better. Here is the update for this round:

Overall
Bets: 16
Wins: 3
Total Staked: $176.00
Total Returned: $149.72
Profit: -$26.28
S/R: 18.75%
Yield: -14.93%

Normal Margins
Bets: 8
Wins: 3
Total Staked: $160.00
Total Returned: $149.72
Profit: -$10.28
S/R: 37.50%
Yield: -6.43%

Exact Margins
Bets: 8
Wins: 0
Total Staked: $16.00
Total Returned: $0.00
Profit: -$16.00
S/R: 0.00%
Yield: -100.00%

[Hands Solo]

I've thieved this from the AFL page. Convict Style :P

Predicted Score						Actual Score
Richmond	33	60	86	105		Richmond	26	35	51	100
W.Bulldogs	20	33	59	86		W. Bulldogs	40	68	83	132
St Kilda	15	36	67	89		St. Kilda	16	30	63	68
Essendon	34	57	79	102		Essendon	8	45	74	99
Collingwood	26	44	63	88		Collingwood	23	51	64	66
Port Adelaide	19	50	83	100		Port Adelaide	21	49	63	84
Kangaroos	20	38	49	70		Kangaroos	34	42	55	87
Brisbane	16	41	67	93		Brisbane Lions	12	39	49	63
Adelaide	24	49	67	77		Adelaide	20	41