Bankroll for laying

[glceud]

After 30 years of trying to find winners I have given up and decided to lay horses instead.

No paper testing here, jumped straight in with good old hard cash.

So far so good(as the new yorker said as he passed the 12 floor of his high rise flat ater jumping out of the 25th no doubt)

Basically I am laying a selection of horses to win equal amounts of cash.

Prices vary from 2/5 to 14/1 at an average of about 6/1. I hope I am getting an average of 10% better than the horses actual chances.

Any one got any Idea what sort of bankroll I need to cover the invitable bad run?

[aliando]

not sure about the amount of bankroll, but if you're looking to win a fixed return, then I'd be looking at making that return a fixed % of your bank roll and keeping it small

good luck mate!

[slapdash]

Say your lays are all at 6/1 to win one unit, and have a 13% chance of
winning, compared to the 14.3% the odds suggest. Then you'll need to start
with about 150 units to have as little as a 1% chance of going broke.

As the odds vary, you'll actually need more than that to have that small a
chance of going broke. It's the higher odds that are the dangerous ones, and
in the extreme case of them all being 14/1 with, say, a 6% chance of winning,
compared to the 6.67% the odds suggest, you'd need a little over 300 units.

So somewhere around 200 units for a 1% chance of going broke. If you halve
the bank, that will increase the chance of going broke to about 10%.

[Cassius Marcellus]

I lay on Betfair for small amounts, and bad runs will come, but if you don't go mad, as a layer, you should win in the end.

I have learnt that when something you lay at 2.5 goes to 15, it is not safe to assume you have won. I have had horses reach 40 and bigger and come back and bite me. Trade out when you can. Classic example a couple of weeks ago, a nag on the AW at Lingfield reached 999/1 for a couple of quid, not that I got that price, I was happy with 20s. It got up on the line in a bunch finish. It was the 2-1 (or 15-8) favourite.

I don't lay big prices, over 12/1 for example, because if they take off in front you can have trouble getting bigger odds if they are traveling well. Sometimes you get well lumbered when the rest of the field are caught napping.

[glceud]

Thanks for the input guys.
I am operating with a bank of 200 x £4 units so thats about right.

Assuming my 10% guesstimate is correct how many horses do I need to lay to be a millionaire by next christmas? Assuming i continue to lay for 0.5% of my ever increasing bank(Only Slapdash knows the answer)

[Wumpking]

glceud. I don't know much about this approach but would recommend checking out the 'Maria laying' thread on the EBA site (are we allowed to give details out of other betting forums?). If my memory serves me right, she turned £2k or £3k into £100k in under a year by laying horses. Whilst she wouldn't give details of how she made her selections, her staking plan was very effective. Worth a read if you've got several hours to spare (its a very long thread!).

Best wishes for your system.

[glceud]

Read the first couple of pages and the last couple, looks like some performance.
Liked the bit about her stopping posting her tips as it was affecting her livelyhood.

Any way my cunning plan of laying the horses I would normally back needs a bit more fine tuning or maybe after 30 years I am switching over to laying the very day I finaly worked out how to find winners.