Backing then Laying, feelings upon.......

Recently started looking into this concept.
You identify a match wear you back one team as you think that the odds will drop closer to the game. You then make a few calculations and if the lay price is low enough you 'sell' your bet, THUS if done in the correct way you are guaranteed some kind of profit no matter what the result of the game is.
At first thought na thats not in the spirit of things, but working out which game is likely to be the best one to use, reading how others are going to react, whether you think teams are currently over priced all adds to the erm(vocabulary failure) good stuff (er yeh that works) about it.
Any one else any hints, thoughts on the matter?

To be able to do this obviously the market has to move in your favour. E.g. your selection goes a goal up. If you close position on what is eventually a winning bet you will have reduced your profit. As we know, if you strike bets at value prices then in the long term you will profit. So if you close a bet then the closing bet has to be value as well, if it is not you will in the long term reduce your potential profit, or worse, turn profit into losses.

IMO, those laying in-running soccer bets are shrewd cookies and you will need to be even shrewder to take their money form them.

the one im looking into isnt a in running thing its all done in the days running up to the match.

The same principles of value apply regardless.

i see

Hi mr rossi,
Football trading won't make you rich quick, but it if you know what you're doing it does provide a steady drip. It's very rarely I have a "straight" bet these days and I always look to close a book and lock in profit as soon as possible. Which matches to trade on? Almost as tricky as picking winners, but there are a few pointers.
Checking odds-comparison sites such as tip-ex will show you how odds are changing for each match. If you see that a lot of bookies slashing odds on a particular team, and the exchanges are still providing odds "above the norm", it usually pays to follow the money and lay off later. A good example of this was the Juventus-Man Utd game yesterday. During yesterday morning, Juventus could be backed at Betfair @2.08, even though the bookies odds were steadily going down. By looking at the betfair information graphs you could see that a lot of money was being traded at around 2.04-2.08 which was keeping the Betfair market on Juventus artificially high. The price duly dropped on Betfair to as low as 1.94.
I always try to lock in a profit as early as possible, i.e. don't wait until the final hour before you start laying. Other traders might be trying to lay off too, pushing the price back up, and sometimes passing the odds you originally backed at.
Another tool I use, is what Joe is currently doing at the moment, with the Favourite/Long-shot Bias. Using such info, you can make tables, that take into account the bias as well as the commission on the exchanges, to give guidelines on the upper and lower limits when backing and laying. This helps when the exchange overround books aren't yet at 100%.
One thing to remember though, is that if you were to back high and lay low, locking in a profit, you will only win money if the selection wins. If it does not win, you make £0 (but you don't lose anything). You can always "flatten" a book by backing the draw and the other team to win to spread the proft over the 3 results, but I rarely do this as it eats into your overall profit.
As with traditional betting, don't put all your eggs into one basket. Last week I backed Juventus to beat Man Utd at Old Trafford, hoping to lay off at a lower price. I went out and came back to see that the Juve team had the flu and the price had drifted horribly. I was in an awkward position, but with a bit of luck I managed to sort it out eventually.
There are a few other secret weapons, but if you get into it you'll pick up bits and pieces as you go along. Trading is not like traditional betting, it's more psychological, you're betting on how you think the masses will be betting, not on the result of a football match.
Good luck!

Teeshappy

Great post :smokin

To make sure that you make a profit regardless of the result you can do as follows:

Lets say that you want to back Arsenal at 2.38 because you believe this price is going to drop. Place 1000 units on 2.38, then lay at e.g. 2.36 with a stake of 2.38/2.36 * 1000 = 1008 units.

If Arsenal win, your profit is 1380 units minus 1371 = 9 units
If Arsenal draw or lose, your profit is 1008 units minus 1000 units = 8 units.

Christoffer

Yes, good point toto - I do tend to do things backwards sometimes.

Trading can be put to good effect on long term markets as well. A good example is the next manager markets on Betfair. The Next Ireland Manager was an easy market to make money on. Although when the market started you left yourself exposed, the extended life span of the market made sure a profit was easily made. A lot of people had 4 figure sums besides all candidates on this market. A good tip for these markets is to start trading or keep an eye on the market as soon as it opens. That way you get a "feel" for the market that you wouldn't get if you were to start playing when the market was relatively mature.

With the sort of stakes you mention why not do the Spreads, same principle applies really, if your cute you get out with a profit before a ball has been kicked, whatever the sport...:smokin

Cheers lads, loads of really good info here. Sums spoke of are a mite high 4 me but the principal remains more or less the same. Looks like i will need to look into in more depth.
Already arsed things up a bit as i backed everton at 3.35 with the laying at that point being 3.4. The laying has gone up to 3.6 so a bit stuck as to wat to do now.

Bad luck mr rossi. My own figures say back Everton @3.55 and lay Everton @3.35. I doubt very much that you'll be able to lay off <3.35, but you never know! I expect come kick-off Everton will be trading @3.45 (+/-0.05).
If I was in your position, and I didn't want to let the bet ride, I would try to lay off @3.35, or even be prepared to take a small loss should Everton win, and lay off @3.40+.
I could be wrong though, the final decision's yours. Good luck!

Newcastle can now be backed at 2.42 at Betfair, the highest price in the market (including other exchanges).

The highest price among the bookies is 2.25 and some go as low as 2.00.

Backing Newcastle now and laying at a shorter price later seems like a good arbitrage opportunity...

Damn missed out on that one toto, had dun it on utd v liverpool tho so made a massive 1.00, yes! Wow the astons on order as we speak.
Now theory that the best profits for this technique can be found by watchin and reactin earlish on in competitions, with that in mind the snookers comin up, by identifying the top say 6 players should be able to pull in a small but essentially pleasurable (that soundid a bit camp) profit.
Suggestions in relation to this if you will..........