The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - The Punters Lounge

28-12-2002, 01:55

Over the last few years I've noticed that teams near the bottom of the Football League tend to win their fair share of home games. This tends to happen in the second half of the season, when teams really have to start pulling out results to avoid the drop to the conference.

My system involves backing any team that is in the bottom 4 of Division Three (two are relegated to the conference now) when they play a home game with a fixed stake of 2 units per game:

This weekend:

Exeter (3rd from bottom) to beat Macclesfield (11/10) - 2 unit win
Bristol Rovers (4th from bottom) to beat Boston (11/8) - 2 unit win

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 50 units
Profit/Loss: +0.00 units
Total staked: 0 units
Yield: 0.0%

Carlisle (2nd bottom) are at Leyton Orient, and Swansea (bottom) are at Lincoln

28-12-2002, 03:34

different.....good luck!

29-12-2002, 16:26

Exeter (3rd from bottom) to beat Macclesfield (11/10) - 2 unit win: 1-1

Bristol Rovers (4th from bottom) to beat Boston (11/ - 2 unit win: 1-1

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 46 units
Profit/Loss: -4.00 units
Total staked: 4 units
Yield: 0.0% (can you have a minus yield?)

Carlisle (2nd bottom) lost 2-1 at Leyton Orient, and Swansea (bottom) lost 1-0 at Lincoln

01-01-2003, 18:04

Exeter to beat Kidderminster (9/5) - 2 pt win
Bristol Rovers to beat Torquay (13/8) - 2 pt win

02-01-2003, 22:36

both games called off

03-01-2003, 17:05

one bet on Saturday

Carlisle to beat Southend - 2 units (7/5 best price)

05-01-2003, 22:01

Carisle to beat Southend - 2 unit win (7/5) :

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 48.8 units
Profit/Loss: -1.20 units
Total staked: 6 units
Yield: 0.0% (can you have a minus yield?)

Bristol R (4th bottom) lost at Hull

10-01-2003, 07:20

Being a Brighton fan I would have to agree, this system works

16-01-2003, 19:49

Midweek results

Swansea 2-3 Bury

Bristol R 1-1 Torquay

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 44.8 units
Profit/Loss: -5.20 units
Total staked: 10 units
Yield: 0.0% (can you have a minus yield?)

16-01-2003, 21:55

Yes you can have a minus yield, I believe yours would be profit (-5.20) divided by stake (10 units) multiplied by 100 =

- 52.00% yield?

Or have I lost the plot?

16-01-2003, 21:57

PS. Good Luck with your system, being a Darlington fan I see a lot of division 3 games, and its hard to see your system working at this earlier stage. I agree they do start to pick up when they realize there going out of the football league but its hard to see many of these teams winning at the moment... some of them are really bad

20-01-2003, 15:30

Darlo - I'm sure I have started it too early, I'll run a separate test within the same thread as of March 1st. Anyway, both winners on Saturday

Exeter 1-0 Carlisle EVENS
Bristol.R 2-1 Scunthorpe 5/4

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 49.1 units
Profit/Loss: -0.9 units
Total staked: 14 units
Yield: -0.06%

27-01-2003, 00:43

Swansea 2-0 Lincoln 7/5

Boston 0-0 Bristol R 1/1

Carlisle 3-0 Orient 6/4

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 52.9 units
Profit/Loss: +2.9 units
Total staked: 20 units
Yield: +14.5%

03-02-2003, 17:15

Just the one game this weekend:

Bristol Rovers 1-2 Carlisle

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 50.9 units
Profit/Loss: +0.9 units
Total staked: 22 units
Yield: +4.1%

05-02-2003, 13:39

Just the one game last night

Swansea 1-0 Darlington

at 13/8

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 54.2 units
Profit/Loss: +4.2 units
Total staked: 24 units
Yield: +17.5%

14-02-2003, 12:10

On a bit of a roll now. Just one team in the bottom four played at home last Saturday (Carlisle were 5th from bottom and Macclesfield 6th from bottom)

Boston 1-0 Scunthorpe at 6/4

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 57.2 units
Profit/Loss: +7.2 units
Total staked: 26 units
Yield: +27.7%

18-02-2003, 01:50

Two matches this week

Exeter 0-2 Boston

Swansea 2-0 Cambridge at 6/4

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 56.2 units
Profit/Loss: +6.2 units
Total staked: 30 units
Yield: +20.7%

Norfolk Enchance · 18-02-2003, 03:28

Looking good Matty

I think their is a lot to be said for seasonal systems in football and am watching with interest

24-02-2003, 14:51

Thansk Norfolk. I've always been fascinated by this part of the FL and have seen time and time again teams down there fight their way out of trouble. Well not this weeken >D

Forgot to update midweek

Exeter 2-5 Kidderminster shocker

Bristol R 1-1 Macclesfield

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 52.2 units
Profit/Loss: +2.2 units
Total staked: 34 units
Yield: +6.5%

05-03-2003, 22:07

From the weekend and last night

Saturday:
Macclesfield 2-1 Southend

6/4
Exeter 0-0 Bristol R

Swansea 0-0 Wrexham

Tuesday
Exeter 1-0 Wrexham

2/1
Macclesfield 0-1 Hull

Starting bank: 50 units
Current bank: 50.6 units
Profit/Loss: +0.6 units
Total staked: 22 units (rebased)
Yield: +2.7%

rebased all bets from 2 units to 1 unit for the systems challenge posting

28-12-2002, 01:55	#1 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Over the last few years I've noticed that teams near the bottom of the Football League tend to win their fair share of home games. This tends to happen in the second half of the season, when teams really have to start pulling out results to avoid the drop to the conference. My system involves backing any team that is in the bottom 4 of Division Three (two are relegated to the conference now) when they play a home game with a fixed stake of 2 units per game: This weekend: Exeter (3rd from bottom) to beat Macclesfield (11/10) - 2 unit win Bristol Rovers (4th from bottom) to beat Boston (11/8) - 2 unit win Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 50 units Profit/Loss: +0.00 units Total staked: 0 units Yield: 0.0% Carlisle (2nd bottom) are at Leyton Orient, and Swansea (bottom) are at Lincoln

28-12-2002, 03:34	#2 (permalink)
Dave Mardell Guest Posts: n/a	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System different.....good luck!

29-12-2002, 16:26	#3 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Avoiding the Drop Exeter (3rd from bottom) to beat Macclesfield (11/10) - 2 unit win: 1-1 Bristol Rovers (4th from bottom) to beat Boston (11/ - 2 unit win: 1-1 Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 46 units Profit/Loss: -4.00 units Total staked: 4 units Yield: 0.0% (can you have a minus yield?) Carlisle (2nd bottom) lost 2-1 at Leyton Orient, and Swansea (bottom) lost 1-0 at Lincoln

01-01-2003, 18:04	#4 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	1/1/03 Exeter to beat Kidderminster (9/5) - 2 pt win Bristol Rovers to beat Torquay (13/8) - 2 pt win

02-01-2003, 22:36	#5 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	games off both games called off

03-01-2003, 17:05	#6 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System one bet on Saturday Carlisle to beat Southend - 2 units (7/5 best price)

05-01-2003, 22:01	#7 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Carisle to beat Southend - 2 unit win (7/5) : Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 48.8 units Profit/Loss: -1.20 units Total staked: 6 units Yield: 0.0% (can you have a minus yield?) Bristol R (4th bottom) lost at Hull

10-01-2003, 07:20	#8 (permalink)
Darren C Guest Posts: n/a	` Being a Brighton fan I would have to agree, this system works

16-01-2003, 19:49	#9 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Midweek results Swansea 2-3 Bury Bristol R 1-1 Torquay Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 44.8 units Profit/Loss: -5.20 units Total staked: 10 units Yield: 0.0% (can you have a minus yield?)

16-01-2003, 21:55	#10 (permalink)
Darlo Fan 1 Guest Posts: n/a	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Yes you can have a minus yield, I believe yours would be profit (-5.20) divided by stake (10 units) multiplied by 100 = - 52.00% yield? Or have I lost the plot?

16-01-2003, 21:57	#11 (permalink)
Darlo Fan 1 Guest Posts: n/a	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System PS. Good Luck with your system, being a Darlington fan I see a lot of division 3 games, and its hard to see your system working at this earlier stage. I agree they do start to pick up when they realize there going out of the football league but its hard to see many of these teams winning at the moment... some of them are really bad

20-01-2003, 15:30	#12 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Saturday Darlo - I'm sure I have started it too early, I'll run a separate test within the same thread as of March 1st. Anyway, both winners on Saturday Exeter 1-0 Carlisle EVENS Bristol.R 2-1 Scunthorpe 5/4 Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 49.1 units Profit/Loss: -0.9 units Total staked: 14 units Yield: -0.06%

27-01-2003, 00:43	#13 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Saturdays scores Swansea 2-0 Lincoln 7/5 Boston 0-0 Bristol R 1/1 Carlisle 3-0 Orient 6/4 Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 52.9 units Profit/Loss: +2.9 units Total staked: 20 units Yield: +14.5%

03-02-2003, 17:15	#14 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Re: Saturdays scores Just the one game this weekend: Bristol Rovers 1-2 Carlisle Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 50.9 units Profit/Loss: +0.9 units Total staked: 22 units Yield: +4.1%

05-02-2003, 13:39	#15 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	last night Just the one game last night Swansea 1-0 Darlington at 13/8 Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 54.2 units Profit/Loss: +4.2 units Total staked: 24 units Yield: +17.5%

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)

14-02-2003, 12:10	#16 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	from last Saturday On a bit of a roll now. Just one team in the bottom four played at home last Saturday (Carlisle were 5th from bottom and Macclesfield 6th from bottom) Boston 1-0 Scunthorpe at 6/4 Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 57.2 units Profit/Loss: +7.2 units Total staked: 26 units Yield: +27.7%

18-02-2003, 01:50	#17 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	This week Two matches this week Exeter 0-2 Boston Swansea 2-0 Cambridge at 6/4 Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 56.2 units Profit/Loss: +6.2 units Total staked: 30 units Yield: +20.7%

18-02-2003, 03:28	#18 (permalink)
Norfolk Enchance God Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2002 Age: 27 Posts: 3,639	Re: This week Looking good Matty I think their is a lot to be said for seasonal systems in football and am watching with interest

24-02-2003, 14:51	#19 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Re: This week Thansk Norfolk. I've always been fascinated by this part of the FL and have seen time and time again teams down there fight their way out of trouble. Well not this weeken >D Forgot to update midweek Exeter 2-5 Kidderminster shocker Bristol R 1-1 Macclesfield Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 52.2 units Profit/Loss: +2.2 units Total staked: 34 units Yield: +6.5%

05-03-2003, 22:07	#20 (permalink)
MattyNeth Guest Posts: n/a	Upto date results From the weekend and last night Saturday: Macclesfield 2-1 Southend 6/4 Exeter 0-0 Bristol R Swansea 0-0 Wrexham Tuesday Exeter 1-0 Wrexham 2/1 Macclesfield 0-1 Hull Starting bank: 50 units Current bank: 50.6 units Profit/Loss: +0.6 units Total staked: 22 units (rebased) Yield: +2.7% rebased all bets from 2 units to 1 unit for the systems challenge posting

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