The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - Page 5 - The Punters Lounge

MattyNeth · 21-04-2006, 06:48

Will check out the stats of laying the away team at the end of the season aliando - could make for interesting reading

Big weekend for the system this weekend with 3 selections. Have a personal fancy for Torquay after their cracking away win last week

Rushden 2.54 (Betfair) vs Wycombe
Stockport 2.32 (Betfair) vs Shrewsbury
Torquay 2.42 (Betfair) vs Wrexham

MattyNeth · 23-04-2006, 07:19

As seems to be the case every season they are fighting for their lives. My Torquay hunch came in too - I'm having on a punt on them to survive as well - my tips - Barnet and Rushden for the group

Rushden 2.54 (Betfair) vs Wycombe 1-3

Stockport 2.32 (Betfair) vs Shrewsbury

Torquay 2.42 (Betfair) vs Wrexham

Total bets: 30
Total staked: 60 units
Strikerate: 16/30 = 53.3%
Current bank: 119.04 units
Profit/Loss: +19.04 units
Yield: +31.7%

davidc · 23-04-2006, 17:50

Hi MattyNeth, great stats there!

Been lurking/following the thread from 2nd week in Feb and am very impressed with the results.

Have you considered using this system or tried back testing for other leagues?

davidmphill · 23-04-2006, 17:54

31% yield for this is amazing!
How far into the season do you apply this to your picks?

MattyNeth · 25-04-2006, 09:26

Hi - thanks for the comments. I haven't looked at other divisions i must confess but it could be worth looking at.

The yield last year was about 26% until the final 4 games, which brought it down to about 13% in the end. I'm hopeful it will finish above this this season.

One for tonight and it's a MASSIVE game which i fancy the home team - Torquay.

Torquay 2.32 (Betfair) vs Stockport.

MattyNeth · 26-04-2006, 07:23

Torquay thrashed Stockport 4-0 last night, so the 2nd spot for relegation is right up for grabs. Rushden look doomed

Total bets: 31
Total staked: 62 units
Strikerate: 17/31 = 54.8%
Current bank: 121.68 units
Profit/Loss: +21.68 units
Yield: +34.97%

MattyNeth · 26-04-2006, 07:52

Ok - no teams in the bottom 4 play at home this weekend, so no selections which means the final week of the season should be VERY interesting

davidmphill · 26-04-2006, 09:52

Nice result for you last night, great 4-0 win for Torquay.
The last weekend should be interesting as we have all 4 at the bottom currently playing at home.
Good luck for the rest of the season.

MattyNeth · 30-04-2006, 18:22

Going to be a fascinating end to the season with 5 clubs on 51pts and Oxford on 49pts occupying the 2nd from bottom position.

All of the bottom 4 are playing at home, but Rushden are excluded as they are now down.

Oxford (2nd bottom) v Leyton Orient
Stockport (3rd bottom) v Carlisle
Notts Co (4th bottom) v Bury

I'll check betfair later in the week to post the prices

MattyNeth · 05-05-2006, 12:04

Ok, three games then tomorrow, and I'm having a punt on Oxford at 2/1 to win

Notts Co 2.26
Oxford 3.00
Stockport 2.38

All 2pt home wins

davidmphill · 05-05-2006, 17:12

Huge day in League 2 on Saturday and for me Oxford will be the ones to go down unless they can beat a promotion seeking Leyton O side and hope for someone to drop points along the way.

MattyNeth · 06-05-2006, 17:49

Disappointing last day of season with none of the 3 winning, but the system still finished the league with a positive yield of 23.06%, following on from last season's yield of 13.33%.

See you all on Feb 1st 2007

Total bets: 34
Total staked: 68 units
Strikerate: 17/34 = 50%
Current bank: 115.68 units
Profit/Loss: +15.68 units
Yield: +23.06%

davidmphill · 06-05-2006, 17:55

Nice one Matty. It's a date!
I was very surprised that none of the bottom 3 won.

Mr Intensity · 06-05-2006, 17:59

Just read through this thread - great stuff Matty

See you in 9 months!!

MattyNeth · 27-01-2007, 06:29

Ok, time to revisit this strategy that has done well in the past.

2006 yield: 23.06%
2005 yield: 13.33%

Very simple, back any of the bottom 4 of Div.2 when they are at home from 1st February. Wish started last night with Torquay's thumping win over Grimsby - looks like they are beginning to scrap

MattyNeth · 02-02-2007, 07:22

From the weekend then.

All home wins at 2pt level stakes. All teams currently in the bottom 4

Torquay vs Barnet 2.66
Macclesfield v Grimsby 2.36
Wrexham vs Wycombe 2.84

AlanDB · 02-02-2007, 10:44

All the best with the 2007 run-in. Seems like a sound idea. Macclesfield have already done well to pull themselves out of the drop-zone.

MattyNeth · 16-02-2007, 19:03

Not a good start 2 weeks ago, and no games fell into the criteria last week. But we're back this week with all 4 of the bottom 4 at home.

All prices from betfair:

Boston 2.8 vs Shrewsbury
Macclesfield 2.56 vs Peterboro
Wrexham 2.72 vs Chester
Torquat 4.3 vs Hartlepool

All 2 pt home wins

Pitmaster · 17-02-2007, 15:33

what do you think ... would be this system profitable for 2.Bundesliga or 1.Bundesliga ?? Look at the game : Werder - Hamburg 0:2 !!! Hertha - Mainz 0:2 !!

MattyNeth · 24-02-2007, 21:49

Pitmaster - haven't looked at other leagues as League 2 traditionally has the bottom sides really going for it in the latter stages of each season.

Not a good start this season though. Just Macclesfield win at 2.56 the only win from 7 matches prior to today

Wasn't able to post this week, but 3 matches met the criteria today:
Torquay 0-1 Darlington

Boston 0-1 Hartlepool

Macclesfield 2-1 Grimsby

2.20

So just the 2 wins from 10 games so far...

Total bets: 10
Total staked: 20 units
Strikerate: 2/10 = 20%
Current bank: 85.52 units
Profit/Loss: -14.48 units
Yield: -72.4%

21-04-2006, 06:48	#81 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Will check out the stats of laying the away team at the end of the season aliando - could make for interesting reading Big weekend for the system this weekend with 3 selections. Have a personal fancy for Torquay after their cracking away win last week Rushden 2.54 (Betfair) vs Wycombe Stockport 2.32 (Betfair) vs Shrewsbury Torquay 2.42 (Betfair) vs Wrexham __________________

23-04-2006, 07:19	#82 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited As seems to be the case every season they are fighting for their lives. My Torquay hunch came in too - I'm having on a punt on them to survive as well - my tips - Barnet and Rushden for the group Rushden 2.54 (Betfair) vs Wycombe 1-3 Stockport 2.32 (Betfair) vs Shrewsbury Torquay 2.42 (Betfair) vs Wrexham Total bets: 30 Total staked: 60 units Strikerate: 16/30 = 53.3% Current bank: 119.04 units Profit/Loss: +19.04 units Yield: +31.7% __________________

23-04-2006, 17:50	#83 (permalink)
davidc Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 24 Jul 2005 Posts: 612	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Hi MattyNeth, great stats there! Been lurking/following the thread from 2nd week in Feb and am very impressed with the results. Have you considered using this system or tried back testing for other leagues?

23-04-2006, 17:54	#84 (permalink)
davidmphill 260408 Join Date: 09 Feb 2005 Location: Colorado. Age: 36 Posts: 22,219 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 4	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited 31% yield for this is amazing! How far into the season do you apply this to your picks? __________________ Gwlad, gwlad, pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad, Tra mor yn fur i'r bur hoff bau, O bydded i'r heniaith barhau.

25-04-2006, 09:26	#85 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Hi - thanks for the comments. I haven't looked at other divisions i must confess but it could be worth looking at. The yield last year was about 26% until the final 4 games, which brought it down to about 13% in the end. I'm hopeful it will finish above this this season. One for tonight and it's a MASSIVE game which i fancy the home team - Torquay. Torquay 2.32 (Betfair) vs Stockport. __________________

26-04-2006, 07:23	#86 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Torquay thrashed Stockport 4-0 last night, so the 2nd spot for relegation is right up for grabs. Rushden look doomed Total bets: 31 Total staked: 62 units Strikerate: 17/31 = 54.8% Current bank: 121.68 units Profit/Loss: +21.68 units Yield: +34.97% __________________

26-04-2006, 07:52	#87 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Ok - no teams in the bottom 4 play at home this weekend, so no selections which means the final week of the season should be VERY interesting __________________

26-04-2006, 09:52	#88 (permalink)
davidmphill 260408 Join Date: 09 Feb 2005 Location: Colorado. Age: 36 Posts: 22,219 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 4	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Nice result for you last night, great 4-0 win for Torquay. The last weekend should be interesting as we have all 4 at the bottom currently playing at home. Good luck for the rest of the season. __________________ Gwlad, gwlad, pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad, Tra mor yn fur i'r bur hoff bau, O bydded i'r heniaith barhau.

30-04-2006, 18:22	#89 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Going to be a fascinating end to the season with 5 clubs on 51pts and Oxford on 49pts occupying the 2nd from bottom position. All of the bottom 4 are playing at home, but Rushden are excluded as they are now down. Oxford (2nd bottom) v Leyton Orient Stockport (3rd bottom) v Carlisle Notts Co (4th bottom) v Bury I'll check betfair later in the week to post the prices __________________

05-05-2006, 12:04	#90 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Ok, three games then tomorrow, and I'm having a punt on Oxford at 2/1 to win Notts Co 2.26 Oxford 3.00 Stockport 2.38 All 2pt home wins __________________

05-05-2006, 17:12	#91 (permalink)
davidmphill 260408 Join Date: 09 Feb 2005 Location: Colorado. Age: 36 Posts: 22,219 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 4	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Huge day in League 2 on Saturday and for me Oxford will be the ones to go down unless they can beat a promotion seeking Leyton O side and hope for someone to drop points along the way. __________________ Gwlad, gwlad, pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad, Tra mor yn fur i'r bur hoff bau, O bydded i'r heniaith barhau.

06-05-2006, 17:49	#92 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System - revisited Disappointing last day of season with none of the 3 winning, but the system still finished the league with a positive yield of 23.06%, following on from last season's yield of 13.33%. See you all on Feb 1st 2007 Total bets: 34 Total staked: 68 units Strikerate: 17/34 = 50% Current bank: 115.68 units Profit/Loss: +15.68 units Yield: +23.06% __________________

06-05-2006, 17:55	#93 (permalink)
davidmphill 260408 Join Date: 09 Feb 2005 Location: Colorado. Age: 36 Posts: 22,219 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 4	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Nice one Matty. It's a date! I was very surprised that none of the bottom 3 won. __________________ Gwlad, gwlad, pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad, Tra mor yn fur i'r bur hoff bau, O bydded i'r heniaith barhau.

06-05-2006, 17:59	#94 (permalink)
Mr Intensity Mens Doubles Punter Join Date: 21 Dec 2003 Location: Newcastle upon Tyne Age: 24 Posts: 9,447	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Just read through this thread - great stuff Matty See you in 9 months!! __________________ I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - as support rather than illumination. (Andrew Lang) Everyone thought Einstein was crazy until he started kicking ass.

27-01-2007, 06:29	#95 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Ok, time to revisit this strategy that has done well in the past. 2006 yield: 23.06% 2005 yield: 13.33% Very simple, back any of the bottom 4 of Div.2 when they are at home from 1st February. Wish started last night with Torquay's thumping win over Grimsby - looks like they are beginning to scrap __________________

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02-02-2007, 07:22	#96 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System From the weekend then. All home wins at 2pt level stakes. All teams currently in the bottom 4 Torquay vs Barnet 2.66 Macclesfield v Grimsby 2.36 Wrexham vs Wycombe 2.84 __________________

02-02-2007, 10:44	#97 (permalink)
AlanDB Junior Punter Join Date: 04 May 2006 Posts: 50	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System All the best with the 2007 run-in. Seems like a sound idea. Macclesfield have already done well to pull themselves out of the drop-zone.

16-02-2007, 19:03	#98 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Not a good start 2 weeks ago, and no games fell into the criteria last week. But we're back this week with all 4 of the bottom 4 at home. All prices from betfair: Boston 2.8 vs Shrewsbury Macclesfield 2.56 vs Peterboro Wrexham 2.72 vs Chester Torquat 4.3 vs Hartlepool All 2 pt home wins __________________

17-02-2007, 15:33	#99 (permalink)
Pitmaster Senior Punter Join Date: 21 Aug 2006 Age: 26 Posts: 467	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System what do you think ... would be this system profitable for 2.Bundesliga or 1.Bundesliga ?? Look at the game : Werder - Hamburg 0:2 !!! Hertha - Mainz 0:2 !! Last edited by Pitmaster; 17-02-2007 at 15:35.

24-02-2007, 21:49	#100 (permalink)
MattyNeth West Ham punter Join Date: 05 Jan 2001 Location: Bournemouth Posts: 2,225	Re: The Avoid The Drop To The Conference System Pitmaster - haven't looked at other leagues as League 2 traditionally has the bottom sides really going for it in the latter stages of each season. Not a good start this season though. Just Macclesfield win at 2.56 the only win from 7 matches prior to today Wasn't able to post this week, but 3 matches met the criteria today: Torquay 0-1 Darlington Boston 0-1 Hartlepool Macclesfield 2-1 Grimsby 2.20 So just the 2 wins from 10 games so far... Total bets: 10 Total staked: 20 units Strikerate: 2/10 = 20% Current bank: 85.52 units Profit/Loss: -14.48 units Yield: -72.4% __________________

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