Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias - The Punters Lounge

Joe · 22-02-2003, 08:54

Since I've added a little bit of analysis to my website, I though I might as well proof this system properly.

Basically, I'm going to do what Betbrain and Tip-ex do by way of odds comparison, but do it properly. They provide information on value bets (in addition to the much rarer sure bets). The way they compute these, however, is flawed because they don't take into acount the pricing bias in the odds which I strongly believe exists.

The upshot is that my analysis will avoid throwing up loads of high priced away wins as possible winning edge bets since back testing quite obviously confirms that these are not profitable bets in the long term. My home page will be doing one best value bet every weekend, but I might add a few more for proofing here.

The long term yield is not going to be large if the system is accurate (in the region of 1 to 3%), but I'm more interested in finding out if my hypothesis is correct. I believe that the system I proofed on here last year (if any of you remember) which basically did a similar thing demonstrated considerable viability in this respect.

Anyway, to get the ball rolling.....

Juventus to beat Como, 1.65, Expekt.

P.S. There is absolutely no match analysis whatsoever here, simply odds comparisons. Obviously the more bookies one uses the better, although I think if you have too many silly bookeis in there it might bias the results. So therefore, I'm going to stick to about 10 fairly reputable firms, since I think this should be an adequate number to demonstrate success or otherwise.

23-02-2003, 08:25

Hi Joe,
Interesting stuff, I'll be tracking your results. A quick question, do you base your results on working out the Favourite-Longshot Bias by using the historical odds data for each bookie? Or is it just an average of all the bookies?
Cheers
dave b
ps/ I heard Juventus are still recovering from the flu! But they won anyway!

Joe · 24-02-2003, 09:20

No, I use an artificial weighting which may or may not be correct, but I've tested it for a range of odds and basically it closely replicates the observed bias based on the historical data.

Joe · 26-02-2003, 04:40

1 bet, 1 winner.

Midweek:

Match Pick Bookmaker Odds Return
Champions League: Inter Milan vs Barcelona Home Canbet 2.11 100.2%
UEFA Cup: Boavista vs Hertha Berlin Away Expekt 3.15 101.4%
UEFA Cup: Stuttgart vs Celtic Home Paddy Power 2 100.4%

Joe · 28-02-2003, 08:48

2 winners, 2 losers, profit -0.35

2 more for Friday, rather speculative but the anlaysis threw them up:

German 2nd: E. Frankfurt vs Karlsruhe, Away, Expekt, 7.5, 101.0%
Dutch 1st: De Graafschap vs Roda JC, Home, Bet&Win, 3.5, 101.8%

Moe details on the site.

Joe · 01-03-2003, 06:38

2 losers tonight.

4 home selections for tomorrow

German 1st: Bochum vs Hannover, Home, Canbet, 2.05, 101.7%
German 1st: 1860 Munchen vs Kaiserslautern, Home, Canbet, 2.21, 103.2%
English 3rd: Darlington vs Hartlepool, Home, Bet&Win, 3.5, 103.0%
English Prem: Fulham vs Sunderland, Home, Canbet, 1.79, 102.2%

Analysis on site:

Joe · 02-03-2003, 03:19

Not so good.

1 winner (Fulham), and 3 losers (although 2 were drawn).

2 big favourites for tomorrow.

Match Pick Bookmaker Odds Return
Scottish Prem: Celtic vs Hibernian, Home, Globet, 1.2, 100.7%
English Prem: Arsenal vs Charlton, Home, Canbet, 1.39, 100.4%

Analysis on site:
www.football-data.co.uk/value.php

Joe · 04-03-2003, 08:26

After 2 short priced winners on Sunday (Arse and Celtic (just)), here's a couple more for tomorrow.

English 2nd: Notts County vs Port Vale Home Bet&Win 2 100.4%
English 3rd: Darlington vs York City Home Bet&Win 2.75 100.3%

Joe · 05-03-2003, 06:47

Finally a couple of decent priced winners.

Puts the record at -1.22 from 14 unit selections.

Nothing for tomorrow.

Joe · 07-03-2003, 07:36

Record (unit stakes):

14 bets, Bank -1.22, Yield -8.71%

Next selection

German 2nd: Freiburg vs Mainz, Away, Expekt, 4.1, 102.9%

Joe · 08-03-2003, 06:32

A loser tonight

3 for tomorrow...

FA Cup: Arsenal vs Chelsea, Home, Canbet, 1.96, 101.9%
English 3rd: Rochdale vs Kidderminster, Away, Bet&Win, 3.25, 103.6%
English 3rd: Wrexham vs Rushden, Away, Bet&Win, 3.25, 105.2%

Joe · 15-03-2003, 08:23

Couple more for Saturday...

English Prem: Blackburn vs Arsenal, Away, Planet Pinnacle, 2.05, 102.7%
German 1st: Hamburg vs FC Schalke, Away, Eurobet, 3.75, 103.1%

Joe · 20-03-2003, 07:51

An interesting scenario for tomorrow's UEFA cup game at Anfield. Both home and away are mathematical value with different bookies. I guess it's 2/3 of a true arbitrage. All one needs now is 3.6 for the draw

UEFA Cup: Liverpool vs Celtic, Home, Paddy Power, 2, 100.8%
UEFA Cup: Liverpool vs Celtic, Away, Expekt, 4.65, 100.7%

More info here:
www.football-data.co.uk/value.php

Personally I like the look of the home win.

22-02-2003, 08:54	#1 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias Since I've added a little bit of analysis to my website, I though I might as well proof this system properly. Basically, I'm going to do what Betbrain and Tip-ex do by way of odds comparison, but do it properly. They provide information on value bets (in addition to the much rarer sure bets). The way they compute these, however, is flawed because they don't take into acount the pricing bias in the odds which I strongly believe exists. The upshot is that my analysis will avoid throwing up loads of high priced away wins as possible winning edge bets since back testing quite obviously confirms that these are not profitable bets in the long term. My home page will be doing one best value bet every weekend, but I might add a few more for proofing here. The long term yield is not going to be large if the system is accurate (in the region of 1 to 3%), but I'm more interested in finding out if my hypothesis is correct. I believe that the system I proofed on here last year (if any of you remember) which basically did a similar thing demonstrated considerable viability in this respect. Anyway, to get the ball rolling..... Juventus to beat Como, 1.65, Expekt. P.S. There is absolutely no match analysis whatsoever here, simply odds comparisons. Obviously the more bookies one uses the better, although I think if you have too many silly bookeis in there it might bias the results. So therefore, I'm going to stick to about 10 fairly reputable firms, since I think this should be an adequate number to demonstrate success or otherwise.

23-02-2003, 08:25	#2 (permalink)
teeshappy Guest Posts: n/a	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias Hi Joe, Interesting stuff, I'll be tracking your results. A quick question, do you base your results on working out the Favourite-Longshot Bias by using the historical odds data for each bookie? Or is it just an average of all the bookies? Cheers dave b ps/ I heard Juventus are still recovering from the flu! But they won anyway!

24-02-2003, 09:20	#3 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias No, I use an artificial weighting which may or may not be correct, but I've tested it for a range of odds and basically it closely replicates the observed bias based on the historical data.

26-02-2003, 04:40	#4 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias 1 bet, 1 winner. Midweek: Match Pick Bookmaker Odds Return Champions League: Inter Milan vs Barcelona Home Canbet 2.11 100.2% UEFA Cup: Boavista vs Hertha Berlin Away Expekt 3.15 101.4% UEFA Cup: Stuttgart vs Celtic Home Paddy Power 2 100.4%

28-02-2003, 08:48	#5 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias 2 winners, 2 losers, profit -0.35 2 more for Friday, rather speculative but the anlaysis threw them up: German 2nd: E. Frankfurt vs Karlsruhe, Away, Expekt, 7.5, 101.0% Dutch 1st: De Graafschap vs Roda JC, Home, Bet&Win, 3.5, 101.8% Moe details on the site.

01-03-2003, 06:38	#6 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias 2 losers tonight. 4 home selections for tomorrow German 1st: Bochum vs Hannover, Home, Canbet, 2.05, 101.7% German 1st: 1860 Munchen vs Kaiserslautern, Home, Canbet, 2.21, 103.2% English 3rd: Darlington vs Hartlepool, Home, Bet&Win, 3.5, 103.0% English Prem: Fulham vs Sunderland, Home, Canbet, 1.79, 102.2% Analysis on site:

02-03-2003, 03:19	#7 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias Not so good. 1 winner (Fulham), and 3 losers (although 2 were drawn). 2 big favourites for tomorrow. Match Pick Bookmaker Odds Return Scottish Prem: Celtic vs Hibernian, Home, Globet, 1.2, 100.7% English Prem: Arsenal vs Charlton, Home, Canbet, 1.39, 100.4% Analysis on site: www.football-data.co.uk/value.php

04-03-2003, 08:26	#8 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias After 2 short priced winners on Sunday (Arse and Celtic (just)), here's a couple more for tomorrow. English 2nd: Notts County vs Port Vale Home Bet&Win 2 100.4% English 3rd: Darlington vs York City Home Bet&Win 2.75 100.3%

05-03-2003, 06:47	#9 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias Finally a couple of decent priced winners. Puts the record at -1.22 from 14 unit selections. Nothing for tomorrow.

07-03-2003, 07:36	#10 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias Record (unit stakes): 14 bets, Bank -1.22, Yield -8.71% Next selection German 2nd: Freiburg vs Mainz, Away, Expekt, 4.1, 102.9%

08-03-2003, 06:32	#11 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias A loser tonight 3 for tomorrow... FA Cup: Arsenal vs Chelsea, Home, Canbet, 1.96, 101.9% English 3rd: Rochdale vs Kidderminster, Away, Bet&Win, 3.25, 103.6% English 3rd: Wrexham vs Rushden, Away, Bet&Win, 3.25, 105.2%

15-03-2003, 08:23	#12 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias Couple more for Saturday... English Prem: Blackburn vs Arsenal, Away, Planet Pinnacle, 2.05, 102.7% German 1st: Hamburg vs FC Schalke, Away, Eurobet, 3.75, 103.1%

20-03-2003, 07:51	#13 (permalink)
Joe God Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 3,725	Re: Arithmetic Value System using Favourite-Longshot Bias An interesting scenario for tomorrow's UEFA cup game at Anfield. Both home and away are mathematical value with different bookies. I guess it's 2/3 of a true arbitrage. All one needs now is 3.6 for the draw UEFA Cup: Liverpool vs Celtic, Home, Paddy Power, 2, 100.8% UEFA Cup: Liverpool vs Celtic, Away, Expekt, 4.65, 100.7% More info here: www.football-data.co.uk/value.php Personally I like the look of the home win.

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Football Betting Tips	Australian Free Bets HOT	Free Bets HOT	Odds Comparison	Soccer Punter
Bookmakers	Livescore	SoccerVista	Asian Handicap Betting Guide	Euroleague Betting Picks
Soccer Picks