Arena Football System

[JCtips]

Here's my Arena Football betting system (actually two systems in one) which showed a good profit last season (the Arena Football 2008 season starts today) going 87-71-1 (54.49%).
I'll give it another try this season.

Here's what I use:

- Line moves vs moneyline (meaning the line/odd moved in favour of a team but the majority of the "public" is still betting the other way).
Here I bet the team with the less number of bets...
...last year's record using this system was 38-30.

- Bet on teams which had the handicap/point spread moved in their favour 1 point or more.
Last year's record using this system 38-26.


Using today's game as an example.
The line opened at LA -8 and is now at LA -11 but still the majority of the bets are on LA.
This game fits in both systems for me to take the opposite.

My first bet of the 2008 season in Arena Football:
LA-NO - NO +10.5 (2.00);

Good luck!



JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My first bet of the 2008 season in Arena Football:
LA-NO - NO +10.5 (2.00); lost

Good luck!



JC

It's a shame that NO couldn't hold on to that halftime lead of 33-28...
...better luck today.

JC

[JCtips]

Here's my first bet for today:

Georgia-Dallas - Georgia +5.5 (1.95);

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

Here's my first bet for today:

Georgia-Dallas - Georgia +5.5 (1.95); lost

Good luck!

JC

Lost this one.

Here's my 2nd bet for today and my bet for tomorrow (I have to post early as tomorrow I'll have no time to post it):

Today:
KC-TB - KC +2.5 (1.95);

Tomorrow:
Colorado-Columbus - Colorado -4.5 (1.95);

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

My only pick for today:

Dallas-Columbus - Columbus +9.5 (1.88);

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

My bets for today:

Chicago-Philadelphia - Chicago +1.5 (1.94);
NY-KC - NY +6 (1.98);
NO-Orlando - NO +8 (1.94);

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bets for today:

Chicago-Philadelphia - Chicago +1.5 (1.94); lost
NY-KC - NY +6 (1.98); won
NO-Orlando - NO +8 (1.94);won

Good luck!

JC

Good day yesterday!

JC

[JCtips]

My bets for today:

Grand Rapids-SJ - Grand Rapids +10.5 (1.95);
Arizona-LA - Arizona +4 (1.99);

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bets for today:

Grand Rapids-SJ - Grand Rapids +10.5 (1.95); won
Arizona-LA - Arizona +4 (1.99); lost

Good luck!

JC

1-1-0 yesterday.

JC

[JCtips]

My bets for today:

GR-Chicago - Chicago -6.5;
Orlando-Utah - Orlando -4;

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bets for today:

GR-Chicago - Chicago -6.5; won
Orlando-Utah - Orlando -4; won

Good luck!

JC

Good day yesterday !

JC

[JCtips]

My bets for today:

Columbus-Cleveland - Columbus +2.5 (1.98);
Georgia-LA - Georgia +3 (1.91);
SJ-Arizona - SJ -15 (1.95);

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bets for today:

Columbus-Cleveland - Columbus +2.5 (1.98); won
Georgia-LA - Georgia +3 (1.91);won
SJ-Arizona - SJ -15 (1.95);won

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

My bets for today:

Philadelphia-NY - NY +16.5 (1.99);
NO-TB - NO +10.5 (1.97);

Good luck!

JC

[klaymore79]

Well done on the clean sweep yesterday, but I have a few questions as I don't understand some of this.

Originally Posted by JCtips

Here's what I use:

- Line moves vs moneyline (meaning the line/odd moved in favour of a team but the majority of the "public" is still betting the other way).
Here I bet the team with the less number of bets...
...last year's record using this system was 38-30.

- Bet on teams which had the handicap/point spread moved in their favour 1 point or more.
Last year's record using this system 38-26.


Using today's game as an example.
The line opened at LA -8 and is now at LA -11 but still the majority of the bets are on LA.
This game fits in both systems for me to take the opposite.

My first bet of the 2008 season in Arena Football:
LA-NO - NO +10.5 (2.00);

How do you tell which way the money is going in this, and which bookie do you use? And chance you could give an example?

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by klaymore79

Well done on the clean sweep yesterday, but I have a few questions as I don't understand some of this.
How do you tell which way the money is going in this, and which bookie do you use? And chance you could give an example?

Hi Klaymore79.

I use Pinnacle for this sport.
You have several options for this:
1) Look at the lines (and take note) on Pinnacle when they open for the following weekend. This way you know how they're moving.
2) There are some sites out there where you can see the line moves (send me a PM if you can't find any).



JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bets for today:

Philadelphia-NY - NY +16.5 (1.99); lost
NO-TB - NO +10.5 (1.97); won

Good luck!

JC

1-1-0 record today.

JC

[klaymore79]

I get the handicap part, being doing that on the NFL for years, and I get what you mean about the handicap getting bigger, it's the people betting the other way I don't get. Do you mean the price/odds staying or getting shorter even with the heftier handicap?

Like right now, there's a game tomorrow on that Pinnacle site that has Dallas -9.5 with odds of -105. Say Dallas were to get a larger handicap, -10 or more, and the odds got shorter as well, would this be a qualifier for the other team?

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by klaymore79

I get the handicap part, being doing that on the NFL for years, and I get what you mean about the handicap getting bigger, it's the people betting the other way I don't get. Do you mean the price/odds staying or getting shorter even with the heftier handicap?

Like right now, there's a game tomorrow on that Pinnacle site that has Dallas -9.5 with odds of -105. Say Dallas were to get a larger handicap, -10 or more, and the odds got shorter as well, would this be a qualifier for the other team?

You need to separate it into 2 different approachs like I wrote in my 1st post:

1) Line moves and where people are betting. You can check this out in several sites that have this info available in the web (like Wagerline, not sure if I can mention other sites here but there's too many people asking and this is surely one I use everday with consensus information).

2) If the line moves 1 point spread or more you consider it.
In the example you give, the line moves 1 point spread but in favour of the other team (Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -10.5) so I would bet the other team (dog in this game).
If the line moved from Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -8.5 I would bet Dallas.

Hope this helps.
Please also note that Arena Football seems to be the exception for this approach (it doen't seem to work as well in other sports) and that I only have data from 1 season (last one)...we'll need a bigger sample to draw better conclusions.



JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

You need to separate it into 2 different approachs like I wrote in my 1st post:

1) Line moves and where people are betting. You can check this out in several sites that have this info available in the web (like Wagerline, not sure if I can mention other sites here but there's too many people asking and this is surely one I use everday with consensus information).

2) If the line moves 1 point spread or more you consider it.
In the example you give, the line moves 1 point spread but in favour of the other team (Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -10.5) so I would bet the other team (dog in this game).
If the line moved from Dallas -9.5 to Dallas -8.5 I would bet Dallas.

Hope this helps.
Please also note that Arena Football seems to be the exception for this approach (it doen't seem to work as well in other sports) and that I only have data from 1 season (last one)...we'll need a bigger sample to draw better conclusions.



JC

The line moved exactly from Dallas -9 to Dallas -10 (-10.5 in certain bookies).
So, my bet for tonight is:

Dallas-Colorado - Colorado +10 (1.97);

Good luck!

JC