7's or better h2h system

[jtw1]

I recently posted this on my h2h thread and as promised i'm going to start a thread after researching the stats from those results .

Here's what the post was about -

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Have had a bit of a look back at the stats since i started this thead on the 4th of March last year.
I only considered those games where one side had a 7+ game h2h advantage over their opponents and it was interesting .

Total No of games = 63
No of winners = 43

Longest Losing run = 3
Longest Winning run = 7 [ twice ]

Winning Odds ranged from 1.16 to 2.5

If a 1pt win single had been placed on those teams then a profit of 92.36pts would have been achieved.

I am definately going to follow these teams from now on and will post on a separate thread and will stake according to the odds on offer.

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So here goes , REAL MONEY involved and i'm going to try and get a return of 50% or more on each investment .
That means if the selection is 1.5 or better then it will be a win single .
If , as you will observe this week , they are well under the 1.5 limit then Doubles or even Trebles will suffice.

Qualifiers for SAT/SUN -

RANGERS are 13-0-1 v Kilmarnock @ 1.25

P.S.V are 9-0-0 v Sparta @ 1.14

BARCELONA are 11-0-0 v Santander @ 1.28

AJAX are 11-1-1 v Roda @ 1.33

* Note , Due to the fact that the SPL teams play each other twice at home and away the stats for that league can be exagerated , so Rangers are just below the official limit of 7 but if we go back a bit further the stats are 15-0-2 which takes them just Over the 7 game advantage limit so i'm willing to take the chance.

BETS

1- 10pt Double RANGERS / BARCELONA

2- 10pt Double P.S.V / AJAX

All bets placed with bet365.

[jtw1]

BARCELONA bollox up the 1st double after RANGERS came back from 1 down .
Waiting for AJAX tomorrow as PSV won 1-0

[seepps]

Hello jtw1,
I'm reading your threads for several months now, trying to reproduce your selections using my database and for this thread I found something strange.
My backtest produced similar selections as the ones from the thread you're talking about but the final result is more close to 9 than to 92.36 as you explain.
Sure that I 'm wrong, I would just like to understand the way you find your figure. To me, it's as if you calculate the return withour substracting your odds.
Furthermore, when I look your strike rate and the number of bets I'm close to your figures 41 winners for 60 games. If you could tell me where I'm wrong ...
My result are as follow :

Start bank	100,00
Current bank	103,22
Total staked	60,00
Total returned	63,22
Yield	5,37%
Profit/Loss	3,22
Winners	41
Loosers	19
Strike Rate	68,33%

[seepps]

Here's my list of selections, guess it could help ...
have a nice end of evening ...

22/05/2008:Hibernian v Motherwell 13-9-1, odds = 2,1

17/05/2008:Bayern Munich v Hertha 8-2-0, odds = 1,4

11/05/2008:Benfica v Setubal 9-1-0, odds = 1,5

11/05/2008:Celtic v Hibernian 15-7-1, odds = 1,28

11/05/2008:Guimaraes v Est Amadora 8-0-1, odds = 1,4

10/05/2008:Club Brugge v Westerlo 9-1-0, odds = 1,5

10/05/2008:Hearts v Kilmarnock 16-7-2, odds = 1,7

10/05/2008:Rangers v Dundee United 14-3-4, odds = 1,3

07/05/2008:Bayern Munich v Bielefeld 7-0-0, odds = 1,4

07/05/2008:Rangers v Motherwell 21-2-2, odds = 1,3

04/05/2008:Arsenal v Everton 11-2-1, odds = 1,67

04/05/2008:Belenenses v Guimaraes 9-1-1, odds = 2,38

04/05/2008:Liverpool v Man City 8-0-1, odds = 1,73

04/05/2008:Maritimo v Leiria 10-2-0, odds = 1,44

03/05/2008:Man United v West Ham 10-0-2, odds = 1,18

02/05/2008:Montpellier v Le Havre 9-3-0, odds = 3

27/04/2008:Leverkusen v Wolfsburg 8-2-0, odds = 1,8

27/04/2008:Sp Lisbon v Maritimo 10-2-1, odds = 1,45

26/04/2008:Anderlecht v St Truiden 10-1-1, odds = 1,22

20/04/2008:Feyenoord v Roda JC 10-3-1, odds = 1,61

20/04/2008:Olympiakos v Iraklis 10-1-0, odds = 1,11

20/04/2008:Porto v Benfica 11-1-1, odds = 2

19/04/2008:Barcelona v Espanol 11-2-0, odds = 1,61

19/04/2008:Celtic v Aberdeen 23-1-2, odds = 1,3

19/04/2008:Fenerbahce v Denizlispor 10-1-0, odds = 1,25

19/04/2008:Germinal v St Truiden 11-1-0, odds = 1,73

13/04/2008:Anderlecht v Germinal 11-1-0, odds = 1,53

13/04/2008:PSV Eindhoven v Twente 12-2-0, odds = 1,55

12/04/2008:Sochaux v St Etienne 7-0-0, odds = 2,2

06/04/2008:Feyenoord v Utrecht 10-2-2, odds = 1,62

06/04/2008:Gaziantepspor v Ankaragucu 9-4-0, odds = 2,25

05/04/2008:Auxerre v Sochaux 9-0-0, odds = 2,4

05/04/2008:Celtic v Motherwell 18-4-2, odds = 1,29

05/04/2008:East Fife v Dumbarton 9-0-2, odds = 1,57

05/04/2008:Vitesse v Sparta 9-2-0, odds = 2

04/04/2008:Roda JC v Nijmegen 11-1-1, odds = 2,05

04/04/2008:Trabzonspor v Denizlispor 9-2-0, odds = 1,7

02/04/2008:Paris SG v Strasbourg 11-1-0, odds = 1,85

30/03/2008:Panathinaikos v Panionios 11-0-1, odds = 1,35

30/03/2008:Real Madrid v Sevilla 9-1-1, odds = 1,85

30/03/2008:Valencia v Mallorca 8-2-0, odds = 1,9

29/03/2008:Hearts v Dundee United 15-0-7, odds = 2,25

29/03/2008:Man United v Aston Villa 11-3-0, odds = 1,33

22/03/2008:Bayern Munich v Leverkusen 12-2-0, odds = 1,67

22/03/2008:Charleroi v Lokeren 9-0-2, odds = 2,2

22/03/2008:Clyde v Queen of Sth 12-3-2, odds = 2,63

22/03/2008:East Fife v Montrose 13-1-1, odds = 1,83

22/03/2008:Panathinaikos v Iraklis 9-2-0, odds = 1,25

22/03/2008:PSV Eindhoven v Groningen 10-2-0, odds = 1,45

22/03/2008:Rangers v Hibernian 18-2-3, odds = 1,33

16/03/2008:AEK v Aris 11-0-0, odds = 1,6

16/03/2008:Ajax v Willem II 13-1-0, odds = 1,2

12/03/2008:Celtic v Dundee United 19-4-0, odds = 1,25

08/03/2008:Auxerre v Lens 10-2-2, odds = 2,25

08/03/2008:Liverpool v Newcastle 11-2-1, odds = 1,4

08/03/2008:Montrose v East Stirling 14-5-2, odds = 1,5

08/03/2008:Real Madrid v Espanol 11-1-1, odds = 1,55

08/03/2008:Willem II v Groningen 12-0-0, odds = 2,75

05/03/2008:AEK v Xanthi 10-3-0, odds = 1,4

05/03/2008:Liverpool v West Ham 9-3-0, odds = 1,45

[methuselah]

I must say I noticed the discrepancy when you first posted but expected some sort of retraction.
43 winners at the full 2.50 = 64.5 pure profit .Then minus the 20 losers is only
44.5 profit. Probably 9 is nearer the true profit. You have most likely misplaced
a decimal point, alas.

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by methuselah

I must say I noticed the discrepancy when you first posted but expected some sort of retraction.
43 winners at the full 2.50 = 64.5 pure profit .Then minus the 20 losers is only
44.5 profit. Probably 9 is nearer the true profit. You have most likely misplaced
a decimal point, alas.

As much as i'd like to use that as an excuse , i'm afraid it purely down to stupidity and over-excitement in that order.
I've double-checked my figures [ something i already should have done before puting this down ] and both Seepps + Methuselah are quite correct , the true profit should have been 9.27 pts to a 1pt level win stake

How i didn't quite grasp the true figures before starting this thread i'll never know and what makes it worse is that i've posted it on a couple of other betting forums

I will still persevere with it , and if i can get the staking right it should prove profitable over time , just not as much as i thought

[davidc]

Hey JTW1.

I always try to bet at the best odds and to that end I have around 40 different bookie accounts out of which I would probably use 10 or 12 regularly.

Please note that this is not in any way a criticism but I have noticed that the odds that you post are not always the best odds available and that I am regularly able to source better odds (sometimes more than 10%) e.g.

RANGERS are 13-0-1 v Kilmarnock @ 1.25 - My bet placed at 1.33 with Pinnacle.


P.S.V are 9-0-0 v Sparta @ 1.14 - My bet placed at 1.17 (approx) with Betfair.


BARCELONA are 11-0-0 v Santander @ 1.28 - My bet placed at 1.3 with Ladbrokes.


AJAX are 11-1-1 v Roda @ 1.33 - My bet placed at 1.36 with Betfred.

If you were able to place your bets consistently at this higher level of odds your level of returns would be boosted and although I haven't worked out by how much, I do believe that it would be substantial, and that betting at the best odds can turn a marginally losing system into a winning one or a small winning system into a larger winning system.

GL

[jtw1]

Hi davidc , Glad you highlighted this as i don't think i've emphasised the fact that i look at the odds available on Betrescue and i post what i think the average odds are taking into account what i consider are the 'main' bookies e.g bet 365 ,ladbrokes , etc.

This is just to give an idea of where the odds are for those games , i avail myself of the best odds with bookies or exchanges i have an account with .

Thanks for the query mate , hope i've explained things ok

[jtw1]

RANGERS are 13-0-1 v Kilmarnock @ 1.25 2-1

P.S.V are 9-0-0 v Sparta @ 1.14 1-0

BARCELONA are 11-0-0 v Santander @ 1.28 1-1

AJAX are 11-1-1 v Roda @ 1.33 1-0

Certainly , considering the odds , there was no walkovers out of those 4 !!

RANGERS / BARCELONA = -10PTS
PSV / AJAX = +15.16PTS

PROFIT/LOSS = - 4.84PTS

[JCtips]

jtw1, you're doing an incredible contribution with the systems you're sharing here and this one surely sounds promising.
Congratulations and wish you all the success!



JC

[jtw1]

Cheers JCtips nice to have some positive feedback .

3 for the weekend -

ANDERLECHT v charleroi 8-0-1 , odds = 1.33 [fri]
SP LISBON v belenenses 11-0-0 , odds = 1.33 [sat]
RANGERS v motherwell 18-1-0 , odds = 1.28 [sun]

Stake 10pt treble with bet 365 odds returns = 22.64pts

[jtw1]

ANDERLECHT v charleroi 2-0
SP LISBON v belenenses 2-0
RANGERS v motherwell 2-1

Stake 10pt treble with bet 365 odds returns = 22.64pts


Profit after 2 bets = 7.80 pts

[Kamo]

Good luck with this mate also with your other sytems too, I like the effort you put in

[jtw1]

Cheers KAMO , nice to get some feedback



PORTO v ferreira 7-0-0 , odds = 1.22 [fri]

CELTIC v aberdeen 23-0-2 , odds = 1.33 [sat]

CLUB BRUGGE v westerlo 10-1-0 , odds = 1.5 [sat]

AJAX v vitesse 8-0-1 , odds = 1.22 [sun]


10pt treble - PORTO , CELTIC , AJAX returns 19.80pts

10pt single - CLUB BRUGGE returns 15pts

[jtw1]

Porto 2-0

[aliando]

good luck as always jtw!

[jtw1]

Cheers ALIANDO

[jtw1]

PORTO v ferreira 2-0

CELTIC v aberdeen 3-2

CLUB BRUGGE v westerlo 2-0

AJAX v vitesse 3-0


10pt treble - PORTO , CELTIC , AJAX returns 19.80pts

10pt single - CLUB BRUGGE returns 15pts


PROFIT = +22.60PTS

Thats 10 winners from 11 selections

[sport guy]

hi jtw keep up the great work love looking at ur posts to see if we come up with the same tips

[jtw1]

Disappointingly there's only one game which meets the criteria this weekend and thats -

REAL MADRID v espanyol 11-1-0 , odds = 1.33.

10pt win returns 13.33pts [bet 365 ]