Will stop at 6 figures

[changmania]

Originally Posted by changmania

Bet 4: Odd Grenland vs. Rosenborg 2 10 units @1,60 Bwin

Odd are a shambles at the moment, so I fancy Rosenborg here.

Odd - Rosenborg 1-2

The big boys of Norway have come thru, after yesterday's rotten luck with van Nistelrooy's injury.

[changmania]

Bet 5: BATE Borisov - Mtz-Ripo Minsk (1) 10 units @ 1.80 Bwin

Bate Borisov in blistering form at the moment.

[changmania]

Bet 6: Honefoss - Mandalskam - Over 10 units @1.50 Expekt

[changmania]

Bet 5: BATE Borisov - Mtz-Ripo Minsk (1) 10 units @ 1.80 Bwin 0-3


Bet 6: Honefoss - Mandalskam - Over 10 units @1.50 Expekt 2-1


Well, an unexpected end to the Belarussian equivalent of Chelsea vs. Man U, with Borisov losing at home. Had considered Draw No Bet here, wouldnt have helped. But I can't really complain, Borisov have done well for me. They have been phenomenal and had won 9 out of 10 before today. The main problem with these leagues is that team news arrives when it is already ready for the history books.

As for Mandalskam Over, this is a no-brainer really and I really can't understand why I had 5/10 on it. From now, this will strictly be 10/10.
Aside from the bank, I am still looking for an appropriate bet to kick off my 100 K run.

[changmania]

Bet 7: Rosenborg vs. Lillestrom

Pick: Over
Odds: 1.60
Bookie: Unibet
10 units

[changmania]

Now that my schedule at work is not too hectic, I will really start my 100K run.
The first pick will be Austria Kärnten vs Salzburg. Salzburg is without equal in Austria. As for Kärnten, the story could not be more interesting as they have arisen out of the ashes left by the collapse of Superfund Pasching. It is quite a new team with a big contingent of players who played in the 2nd division last year.
I dont think they can be any match for Salzburg if Salzburg's performance on Wednesday is anything to go by. I also read that it is not really a home game for Kärnten as their designated home stadium will be ready only in September so they will play in Pasching.

I also think Salzburg will want to be in top form before the Champions League qualifiers start. They managed to beat Valencia in their home game of last year's qualifiers so they must fancy their chances and should use such games as serious preparation.
I also noticed that the odds are crumbling fast from 1.90 initially, but still ok now.

Bet 1:
Austria Kärnten - RB Salzburg (2)
Odds: 1.55 @ Expekt
Stake: 17 €

[changmania]

Kärnten - Salzburg 1-0

Nothing is impossible really, this was not even a real away game, most of the fans were Salzburg fans. And Salzburg is vastly superior. Anyway, this is football.
Back to the drawing board for a new start.

[changmania]

After yesterday's rather unusual result in the Salzburg game, I will start it all over again today as there are some interesting games. The smart money seems to be going to Halmstad. Then one of my favourites Norrkoping, and possibly Shamrock and Lay Malmo.
I like to stick to a trend and since Norrkoping have been pretty consistent for me I will settle for them. As they are meeting Degerfors who are bottom, the odds are predictably miserable at 1.25. So the other option is HT/FT but I find this a bit risky so I will take the handicap -1.
The risks are that the break may have knocked some momentum off them, or they may not take Degerfors too seriously. But let's wait and see.

Norrkoping - Degerfors 1 (-1.0)
1.70 @ Expekt
Stake: 10 €

[changmania]

Norrkoping - Degerfors 3-2 (2-0 HT)

Just couldnt shake off Degerfors who kept coming back.
HT/FT would have seen us home and dry. Interestingly, I considered Shamrock @ 1.90 the more risky of the two options and placed it as a normal bank bet. For good measure, even Shamrock HC would have been successful, the odds must have been above 3 to 4 for this.
Therefore "bankers" are a myth so I will not be looking for absolute safety any more. Some dark forces are dead set against this run, but since I got the stake back via Shamrock, the next attempt will not be long in coming.

[changmania]

The big leagues are back, not to mention the Champions League, etc.
It's 100 K or bust! It's now or never.
Now lack of choice can not be an excuse.
The first small step on this ride will be:

Liverpool - Toulouse 1
30 €
@ 1.30
Unibet

Toulouse couldn't contain Liverpool in France. The Kop is the wrong place to try to make up for it. I see nothing but a Liverpool win here.

[F.]

Good luck Chang


F.

[changmania]

Thanks webusermxc!

So we have a winner.

Liverpool - Toulouse 4-0

The bank is at 39 €.

The next pick is from the Copa Sudamericana. These 2 Chilean teams are strong offensively so I am going for Over 2.5 goals.

Colo Colo vs. Audax Italiano
Over 2.5 goals
39 € @ 1.60 Bet365

[F.]

Originally Posted by changmania

Thanks webusermxc!

The next pick is from the Copa Sudamericana. These 2 Chilean teams are strong offensively so I am going for Over 2.5 goals.

Colo Colo vs. Audax Italiano
Over 2.5 goals
39 € @ 1.60 Bet365

0-0... You chose the wrong Sudamericana match. El nacional vs Carabobo ended 4-0...


F.

[changmania]

Yes you're right F. I followed the live ticker till half time and it was not looking good. In the end, only 0-0.

But I believe it was a solid pick. The two teams are offensively strong and have a history of overs but they cancelled each other out yesterday.
But no worries, as they say, the "impossible" just takes a little bit longer.

So, today it will be small somewhat risky punt.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Werder Bremen 1
10 € @ 2.70
Bwin

Reasoning: Werder are traditionally poor travellers, eg. 0-3 vs Espanyol, 1-3 vs Ajax last year.
They are currently not in good form and have many key injuries. I saw the first leg and Zagreb could easily have nuked them in the first half if they didn't waste their countless chances. I rate Zagreb highly and I am backing them today.
After this it will be Liverpool vs. Derby on Saturday.

[SunDog]

Very similar to something I'm doing at the moment, Changmania, called "100 - 1 million in 20 easy steps" (I'm already writing the self-help book) . Thing is, I'm betting extermely conservatively on this one, ie no bets for me last weekend. I've got Liverpool -1 @ 4/7 tomorrow so you can see where I'm coming from.

Best of luck with it, but I guess what I'm saying is you're probably better off spreading it over the season and avoiding the temptation of betting EVERY weekend.

[changmania]

Originally Posted by SunDog

Very similar to something I'm doing at the moment, Changmania, called "100 - 1 million in 20 easy steps" (I'm already writing the self-help book) . Thing is, I'm betting extermely conservatively on this one, ie no bets for me last weekend. I've got Liverpool -1 @ 4/7 tomorrow so you can see where I'm coming from.

Best of luck with it, but I guess what I'm saying is you're probably better off spreading it over the season and avoiding the temptation of betting EVERY weekend.

Cheers SunDog, I hear you.
I tend to agree with you about being conservative. I try to place the riskier bets using the normal bankroll at 5%. As has been mentioned, patience is a key factor here. And certainly as the figure for the hunt grows, I guess the temptation will be to look for absolutely safe games, if there is such a thing.

Well, as for Dinamo Zagreb vs Bremen, 2 Bremen penalties, the first after just 10 minutes, did the trick and Zagreb's belief was gone.
FT 2-3.
I had mentioned last Wednesday that the next pick would be Liverpool vs Derby, but since it is now after the fact, I can not give details.

The next stop will be the Euro qualifiers, but at first glance, I don't fancy much there.

[SunDog]

Dunno if you're still doing this one, Changmania... probably not, judging by how long ago your last post was, but I've been keeping up my one and think I might be on the way to having this one sussed (famous last words and all that).

Basically I've been backing teams on a DNB basis. Yeah, the odds aren't great but I see it as a season long thing so I'm quite happy to win bit by bit... sure is better than losing. Basically, unless I'm 100% convinced a team is gonna win, I put the majority of the money on the DNB (the percentage obviously depends on how likely I reckon it is they'll win).

Week to week it hasn't looked like a lot but already I've made more money from this system than any other. Basically, as I said in my last post, patience is a punter's best friend.

Anyway, hopefully you've hacked it yourself and are too busy sunning yourself in the Bahamas now instead of wasting your time on a Glory Hunter's forum.

[SunDog]

Ok, Changmania, since you haven't been on this thread for a while, I'm gonna hijack it for a bit until you come back and kick me off. Basically my premise is this -

I had a bit of a glory hunt going myself, as I mentioned in my earlier posts. It actually did quite nicely for me... best strategy to date, believe it or not. However, with the spending I did over xmas I found myself needing to cash in on my winnings to pay my daughter's school fees. I took the money out of my Bet365 account since it seemed to have the worst odds for the bets I was doing.

Anyway, the upshot of it all is my daughter's still being educated and I've got a hundred quid lying in a Bet 365 account that I couldn't be arsed doing much of anything with. So what I'm going to do is have the same kind of glory hunt with it. The rules to this are that there are no rules... I'm going to bet as much or as little as I want to on singles, doubles, trebles... but probably a mixture of the three. Also, it's probably going to be just a weekend thing since I'm going to concentrate on the premier league as the other leagues in England are too unpredictable. Oh - and, of course - the odds are obviously going to be whatever the odds Bet365 give.

Anyway, that's the boring bit over with. This weekend's bets are looking like probably 3 singles of
Blackburn DNB @ 1.25
Newcastle @ 1.7
Spurs @ 1.44
3 x 5 pts singles,
3 x 2.5pt doubles,
1 x 2.5 pt treble.

[SunDog]

Ok, change of heart this morning. After thinking it over I've put the following bets on from a starting bank of 100 points:

2.5 pts - Chelsea to win by 1 goal @ 5/2
2.5 pts - B'ham/Chelsea draw @ 11/4

4 pts - Spurs @ 4/9
1 pt - Spurs -1 goal @ 6/5

2.5 pts - Newcastle @ 8/11
2.5 pts - over 2.5 goals Newc/Bolton @ 19/20

1.25 pts - Chelsea to win by 1 goal/Spurs (double)
1.25 pts - Chelsea draw/Spurs (double)

1.25 pts - Chelsea by 1 goal/ Newcastle (double)
1.25 pts - Chelsea draw/Newcastle over 2.5 goals (double)

2 pts - Spurs/Newcastle (double)
.5 pts - Spurs -1 goal Newcastle over 3 goals (@5/2) (double)

1.25 pts - Chelsea by 1 goal/Spurs/Newcastle (treble)
1.25 pts - Chelsea draw/Spurs/Newcastle (treble)

[SunDog]

Start Bank: 100 pts
Staked: 25 pts
Return: 23.05 pts
Total Bank: 98.05
Profit/Loss: -1.95

Dear oh dear... if Keegan can't inspire Newcastle to beat Bolton on his debut match they really are in trouble... unless it's his tactical nous they hired him for. Anyway, lesson learned - stay away from the Newcastles of this world.

Also, there's something wrong with a system where you get 2 out of 3 right but still lose money. I think I see what the problem is and it's why I never really used the Bet365 account for this type of bet. Basically, it works when all the bets are around evens, which I used to get by backiing a team to win by either 1 goal or 2 (both around 13/5) and split the stake. However, Bet 365 only let you back 1 goal or "2 or more" so I'll have to look at other ways of staking.

Anyhow, onwards and upwards. I really can't see Everton losing to Wigan today and recent history suggests a tight game between City and West Ham. Therefore, today's bet is

10 pts - Everton DNB @ 8/13

3 pts - City to win by 1 goal @ 11/4
3 pts - City/WH draw @ 23/10

2 pts - Everton DNB/City by 1 goal (double)
2 pts - Everton DNB/City-WH draw (double)