Up and down the gears

[Delavida]

The idea behind this is a simple one and that is to stake higher when you are winning and lower when you are not. I usually find I go on little runs of profit then hit bad streaks so I thought tailoring the staking to suit might benefit me.

I have £1,000 put aside for this one. That's alot I know but it will be stretched over at least 6 months. Each month I will start with a balance of £150. At the end of the next month should that balance need topped up then to make the £150 then I will do that. So if at the start of next month I have no balance at all I will stick in another £150. Hopefully I won't have to put in the full whack every month but if I do I'll get at least 6 months out of it- though it might review things at the £500 stage.

At the begining of the month then I start with £150 and my first bet is 10% of the balance. Every bet will be a single and only one will be placed per day. There is no restriction on the odds so it could be anything at all but I'll try not to keep the prices too short. I'll also have a bank and half of any winnings will go into that bank with the rest going back into the balance.

In the event of a winning bet the next bet the percentage of the next bet will be the previous percentage of the balance plus 2%. So if my first bet is a winner, at 10% of the balance, the next stake will be 12% of the balance. There is a cap of 50% but I doubt that will come into play. In the event of a losing bet then it is back to a stake of 10% of the balance for the next bet.

It is possible, though not probable, that at the start of a new month there may already be £150 or more still in the balance. If this should happen then great as I don't need to top it up. In this event the stake percentage will carry on. If however I need to top up the balance then the stake percentage at the start of the new month will be reduced back to 10%.

This one isn't going to make big profits and is built more for the long term. I'll dig out my first bet for today and post it later.

[Delavida]

I forgot to say the Bookie for this will be Paddy Power (While I have money left in that account).

Opening Balance: £150.00
Bank: £0.00

Bet 1: FC Dordrecht v Cambuur Leeuwarden, FC Dordrecht @4/9, £15.00

Closing Balance: £135.00

[Delavida]

A typical start- I never start with a winner. Can only hope it gets better before it gets worse.

Opening Balance: £135.00
Bank: £0.00

Bet 2: Inverness CT v Hibernian, Inverness CT (0) @11/10, £13.50

Closing Balance: £121.50

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

FC Dordrecht 2:3 Cambuur Leeuwarden, FC Dordrecht @4/9

Profit: -£15.00
Bank: £0.00

[aliando]

good luck mate!

[Delavida]

Originally Posted by aliando

good luck mate!

Thanks aliando.

Opening Balance: £142.43

Bet 3: St Etienne v Metz, St Etienne @8/15, £17.09

Closing Balance: £125.33

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Inverness CT 2:0 Hibernian, Inverness CT (0) @11/10

Profit: +£14.85
Bank: +£7.43

-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£7.58
Current Balance: £142.43
Balance Ratio: -5.1%

Bank: +£7.43
Recoup: 4.9%

Actual Stake: £28.50
Actual Return: £28.35
Actual Profit/Loss: -£0.15
Actual Yield: -0.5%

Bets: 2
Won: 1
Void: 0
Lost: 1
Win%: 50%

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £146.98

Bet 4: Osnabruck v 1860 Munich, 1860 Munich (0) @8/11, £20.58 (14%)

Closing Balance: £126.41

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

St Etienne 1:0 Metz, St Etienne @8/15

Profit: +£9.12
Bank: +£4.56

-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£3.02
Current Balance: £146.98
Balance Ratio: -2.0%

Bank: £11.98
Recoup: -92.0%

Actual Stake: £45.58
Actual Return: £54.56
Actual Profit/Loss: +£8.97
Actual Yield: +19.7%

Bets: 3
Won: 2
Void: 0
Lost: 1
Win%: 67%

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £126.41

Bet 5: Seville v Real Murcia, Seville (-1) @6/5, £12.64 (10%)

Closing Balance: £113.76

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Osnabruck 3:0 1860 Munich, 1860 Munich (0) @8/11

Profit: -£20.58
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£23.59
Current Balance: £126.41
Balance Ratio: -15.7%

Bank: £11.98
Recoup: -92.0%

Actual Stake: £66.17
Actual Return: £54.56
Actual Profit/Loss: -£11.61
Actual Yield: -17.5%

Bets: 4
Won: 2
Void: 0
Lost: 2
Win%: 50%

[Delavida]

Bad day but I can't help making it worse.

Opening Balance: £133.99

Bet 6: Atletico Madrid v Getafe, Over 2.5 Goals @4/5, £16.08(12%)

Closing Balance: £117.91

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Seville 3:1 Real Murcia, Seville (-1) @6/5

Profit: +£15.17
Bank: £7.58

-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£16.01
Current Balance: £133.99
Balance Ratio: -10.7%

Bank: £19.57
Recoup: -87.0%

Actual Stake: £78.81
Actual Return: £82.37
Actual Profit/Loss: +£3.56
Actual Yield: +4.5%

Bets: 5
Won: 3
Void: 0
Lost: 2
Win%: 60%

[Delavida]

9 men against 9 men with a Getafe outfield player in goal plus 7 minutes of injury time and still only 1 goal to show.

Opening Balance: £117.91

Bet 7: Barcelona v Deportivo , Barcelona (-1) @4/7, £11.79 (10%)

Closing Balance: £106.12

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Atletico Madrid 1:0 Getafe, Over 2.5 Goals @4/5

Profit: -£16.08
Bank: £0.00

-------------------------------------

[Delavida]

Going a bit crap at the moment but still plenty of time to turn it around- or have me forking out more next month.

Opening Balance: £106.12

Bet 8: Le Havre v Montpellier, Le Havre @8/11, £10.61 (10%)

Closing Balance: £95.51

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Barcelona 2:1 Deportivo , Barcelona (-1) @4/7

Profit: -£11.79
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£43.88
Current Balance: £106.12
Balance Ratio: -29.3%

Bank: £19.57
Recoup: -87.0%

Actual Stake: £106.68
Actual Return: £82.37
Actual Profit/Loss: -£24.31
Actual Yield: -22.8%

Bets: 6
Won: 3
Void: 0
Lost: 3
Win%: 50%

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £95.51

Bet 9: Chelsea v Valencia, Chelsea @4/5, £9.55 (10%)

Closing Balance: £85.96

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Le Havre 0:0 Montpellier, Le Havre @8/11

Profit: -£10.61
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£54.49
Current Balance: £95.51
Balance Ratio: -36.3%

Bank: £19.57
Recoup: -87.0%

Actual Stake: £117.29
Actual Return: £82.37
Actual Profit/Loss: -£34.93
Actual Yield: -29.8%

Bets: 8
Won: 3
Void: 0
Lost: 5
Win%: 37.5%

[Delavida]

Not going well at all but I've come to expect as much. A fine line sometimes. Last night Kalou should have given me a profit but didn't. Selections at the moment not good enough and with today's bet almost half my balance has gone. I better start winning soon or I'll be pumping more cash than I expected into this in January. Still though with this strategy there is time for recovery.

Opening Balance: £85.96

Bet 10: Sporting Lisbon v Dynamo Kiev, Sporting Lisbon @4/7, £8.60 (10%)

Closing Balance: £77.36

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Chelsea 0:0 Valencia, Chelsea @4/5

Profit: -£9.55
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£64.04
Current Balance: £85.96
Balance Ratio: -42.7%

Bank: £19.57
Recoup: -87.0%

Actual Stake: £126.84
Actual Return: £82.37
Actual Profit/Loss: -£44.48
Actual Yield: -35.1%

Bets: 9
Won: 3
Void: 0
Lost: 6
Win%: 33.3%

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £88.41

Bet 11: Roda JC v Sparta Rotterdam, Roda/Roda @5/6, £10.61 (12%)

Closing Balance: £77.80

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Sporting Lisbon 3:0 Dynamo Kiev, Sporting Lisbon @4/7

Profit: +£4.91
Bank: £2.46
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£61.59
Current Balance: £88.41
Balance Ratio: -41.1%

Bank: £22.02
Recoup: -85.3%

Actual Stake: £135.44
Actual Return: £95.87
Actual Profit/Loss: -£39.56
Actual Yield: -29.2%

Bets: 10
Won: 4
Void: 0
Lost: 6
Win%: 40.03%

[Delavida]

Another bad bet last night has me struggling. Today I'm going to go for it and try to get as many bets in as possible whether they be bad or good.

Opening Balance: £88.41

Bet 12: West Brom v Charlton, Over 2.5 Goals @5/6, £7.78 (10%)

Closing Balance: £77.80

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Roda JC 2:3 Sparta Rotterdam, Roda/Roda @5/6

Profit: -£10.61
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£72.20
Current Balance: £77.80
Balance Ratio: -48.1%

Bank: £22.02
Recoup: -85.3%

Actual Stake: £146.05
Actual Return: £95.87
Actual Profit/Loss: -£50.17
Actual Yield: -34.4%

Bets: 11
Won: 4
Void: 0
Lost: 7
Win%: 36.40%

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £81.05

Bet 13: Portsmouth v Tottenham, Portsmouth (0) @8/15, £9.73 (12%)

Closing Balance: £71.32

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

West Brom 4:2 Charlton, Over 2.5 Goals @5/6

Profit: +£6.48
Bank: £3.24
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£68.95
Current Balance: £81.05
Balance Ratio: -46.0%

Bank: £25.26
Recoup: -83.2%

Actual Stake: £153.83
Actual Return: £110.14
Actual Profit/Loss: -£43.69
Actual Yield: -28.4%

Bets: 12
Won: 5
Void: 0
Lost: 7
Win%: 41.7%

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £71.32

Bet 14: Catania v Udinese, Udinese (0) @4/6, £7.13 (10%)

Closing Balance: £64.19

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Portsmouth 0:1 Tottenham, Portsmouth (0) @8/15

Profit: -£9.73
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £64.19

Bet 15: Valenciennes v Auxerre, Valenciennes @10/11, £6.42 (10%)

Closing Balance: £57.77

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Catania 2:0 Udinese, Udinese (0) @4/6

Profit: -£7.13
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

[Delavida]

Opening Balance: £67.11

Bet 16: Valencia v Barcelona,Valencia +1 @5/6, £8.05 (12%)

Closing Balance: £59.05

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Valenciennes 3:0 Auxerre, Valenciennes @10/11

Profit: +£5.84
Bank: £2.92
-------------------------------------

[Delavida]

Not going well at the moment but still plenty of betting left in this. It should stretch out to the end of the month but by then I could be betting pennies before sticking in more cash at the end of the month. I have to stick with it though. The reason is obvious why is not going well and that is because my selections hav not been good. Hopefully though if I run it for a few months I will hit a purple patch and recoup some of the losses whenever that may be.

I have been running three of these elsewhere. One is going much the same as this, one is doing alot better (75% recouped, 50% balance left) and one going great guns (125% recouped with 43% balance left). Part of my problem at the moment is that I have so many selections so from next month I will just run with this one.

I've not given up on this month yet. No matter how small every penny banked is covering the shortfall. At the moment I am £122 down this month so hopefully I can reduce that figure as that is a negative I need to carry into next month. I've also £90 short on my balance which is what I need to put in next month so also have fingers crossed I can pump the balance back up a bit.

The first month though I didn't expect to go well and there is a learning curve so over time things should improve. The ultimate purpose of this is to get to a stage where the bank is recouped and every bet is pure profit. A long way off this month but still early days.

Opening Balance: £59.05

Bet 17: AC Milan v Boca Juniors, AC Milan @10/11, £5.91 (10%)

Closing Balance: £53.15

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

Valencia 0:3 Barcelona,Valencia +1 @5/6

Profit: -£8.05
Bank: £0.00
-------------------------------------

Monthly Statistics (DECEMBER 2007):

Original Balance: £150.00
Profit/Loss: -£90.95
Current Balance: £59.05
Balance Ratio: -60.6%

Bank: £28.18
Recoup: -81.2%

Actual Stake: £185.16
Actual Return: £122.39
Actual Profit/Loss: -£62.77
Actual Yield: -33.9%

Bets: 16
Won: 6
Void: 0
Lost: 10
Win%: 37.5%

[Delavida]

An attempt to get a back to back winner, confidence not good. Only once in 17 bets so far have I bet 14% of my balance following back to back wins. That was my 4th bet here after Inverness and St Etienne won last saturday and lost it on 1860 Munich. On one of my others I managed 7 in a row to bet 24% of my balance on the 8th bet. No such luck here but still time.

Opening Balance: £61.74

Bet 18: Liverpool v Man Utd , Man Utd (0) @10/11, £7.41 (12%)

Closing Balance: £54.33

-------------------------------------

Last bet:

AC Milan 4:2 Boca Juniors, AC Milan @10/11

Profit: +£5.37Bank: £2.68
-------------------------------------