Steve's Under 4.5 Goals

[steveadam23]

Going to give this one a go. I'll be selecting from Betfair's under 4.5 goals markets.

Starting bank will be 50 points, and see how far I can take it.

First bet will be tonight -

Levante v Sociedad - Under 4.5 @ 1.08, 50points.

Steve.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Good luck.

I imagine France would be a good place for this bet but Im not sure how much that will be reflected in the prices.

[steveadam23]

With Levante winning 2-0 bet 1 is a winner.

So 50pts at 1.08, means the bank is now 53.8pts.

Thanks WFTE, I will keep my eye on the French games, but tonight Betfair only offered prices on under/over 2.5.

Steve.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Did they have total goals? You could always lay 5 or more which is essentially the same bet. That market is also only 1% comm.

[steveadam23]

Bet 2

Livorno v Udinese Under 4.5

53.8pts @ 1.07


Didnt actually think of the total goals market, but I will look into it, cheers mate.

Steve.

[Darren]

Livorno 1-0 Udinese

Are you paper trialing this system or going at it with real money?

[steveadam23]

Bet 2 wins with Livorono winning 1-0.

Bank now stands at £57.38.

And straight onto bet 3, kicking off at 4pm


Bet 3.

Villareal v Betis Under 4.5.

£57.38 @ 1.08

Steve.

[steveadam23]

Originally Posted by dmckeelfc

Livorno 1-0 Udinese

Are you paper trialing this system or going at it with real money?

It's just a paper trial just now mate, for a bit of fun. See how it goes however, might put some real cash on it, if it proves to be profitable.

Steve.

[Bamse81]

Fun idea. Good luck with it

[steveadam23]

Well that didnt last long, never picked a thriller in the Villarreal game.

Not to worry, will try again.

Steve.

[steveadam23]

Right after the last poor effort I'm going to try again with a fresh £50.

Bet 1

Inverness CT v Aberdeen Under 4.5

£50 @ 1.09

Steve.

[Darren]

GL Steve! I looked at that game for ages for my rip off glory hunt as an U4.5 and just couldn't decide, come on the bore draw!

[steveadam23]

Bet 1 wins the the game ending 1-1.

Bank is now at £54.28.

Can anyone advise on a decent staking plan for this? I think this could prove profitable, but I'm struggling to fine an appropriate saking plan. Any help is much appreciated!!

Steve.

[Hands Solo]

This is not the type of bet I do, however I have made a fair bit of money by laying the 0-0/backing 1+, which is in many ways the same as the prices are often similar, so I'll give you what advice I can. Rolling over profits is probably the worst idea I could think of. It may not seem so at the time, but the dreaded loss at some stage will come, so you are basically going to undo all of your good work.

In my experience, you can generally always get 20 correct picks in a row, so maybe if you rolled over all your money and stopped at 20 and started again it could work, but you'll still undo your good work from time to time. As boring as it sounds, I find level stakes the best approach, as it also allows you to do multiple games at a time.

[steveadam23]

Thanks for the help Oscar, will keep it in mind. For the time being I'm gonna stick to lumping the whole bank on each game, when I find a loser I will reconsider however!

Anyway onto bet 2

Bet 2

Mainz v Wolfsburg Under 4.5

£54.28 @ 1.11

Steve.

[steveadam23]

Must say I was worried after 2 goals in the first 10 mins! However, game ended up 2-1 for Wolfsburg, and bet 2 wins.

Bank now stands at £59.95.

Steve.

[steveadam23]

Bet 3

Brimingham v Liverpool Under 4.5

£59.95 @ 1.11

Steve.

[Fader]

I like this bet, problem is it works everytime but once

[steveadam23]

Well a nice 1-0 for Liverpool means Bet 3 wins.

Bank now stands at £66.21.

Yea Fader, totally agree with you, thats why I'm paper trialling this just now to see how far I can go before I find the 1!

Steve.

[steveadam23]

Bet 4

Messina v Inter Under 4.5

£66.21 @ 1.11.

Steve.