Madness Daily 4

[madnesstiger]

MADNESS DAILY 4


Been away a little while, and made some withdrawals in the meantime. It was a tough decision, but was a sensible one, as the money is now in my bank account instead of being held above the piranha's that are the 'long-odds-losers'!

So, in light of the above, I will start this thread with £200.

My target will be £10,000.

It sounds like a huge ask, but isn't really all that unrealistic, as you will find out below.

I will be aiming for 105 winning bets in a row at low odds to reach the target.

The chart below shows that, with a starting bank of £200, it would take 105 winners at 1.04 (less commission at 5%) to acheive the £10k target.

However, should I pick a winner at say 1.13, it will provide the same returns as if I'd picked 3 winners at 1.04. Therefore, 1 winner at 1.13 = 3 winners towards the target of 105.



TABLE TO BE ADDED LATER - NOT DISPLAYING CORRECTLY!


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Rules for this attempt:

• At least 90% of all bets will be on FOOTBALL. This is what I know most about, and which has been most successful in recent times. Other sports such as tennis and American sports seem to be far more unreliable and unless I have enough information to backup my reasons for selection, I will leave these alone.
• I will not bet on Friendlies! With recent unpredictable results such as the USA drawing 0-0 with Argentina, Hungary beating Greece, and the Faroe Islands scoring 3 goals in a match(!), I will be also be staying far away from these matches.

As usual, I'll keep detailed records of all bets along the way with regular progress updates.

Not alot more to say, other than, "Let the countdown begin!!"

Winners remaining... 105


MT

[Hooloovoo]

Welcome back mate, and best of luck with this new GH!

[Hooloovoo]

btw, I use Firefox and your table looks absolute crap

[madnesstiger]

Welcome back mate, and best of luck with this new GH!

Cheers mate!!


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The first selection is not really part of the system, but have taken the stake from the starting bank...

£2 BACKED for Simon Grayson to become next Blackburn Rovers manager.

The odds of 150.0 were too high to resist, especially if Big Sam doesn't end up taking over in the end.

***

First 'proper' selection then...


BET01: CROATIA vs GERMANY, LAY 'NO NEXT GOAL' @ 9.6.

EQUIVALENT 'BACK' ODDS: 1.12

With Klose, Padolski, Ballack and Gomez in their offensive formation, I cannot see the Germans failing to score. As a backup, Croatia are a strong outfit, and are capable of grabbing a goal themselves.

Germany will be wanting to finish top of Group B to avoid facing Portugal in the next round, so I reckon they will have an eye for a win today.

[ScottyXS]

Nice to see ya back MT

[Guy Fawkes]

Nice to see you back mate, Best of luck with this thread. I think you did the best thing by withdrawing, Itsa helluva lotta money to do something nice with. Nice one.

P.s. HTML has been disabled due to a security - no excel tabels for a while - its affecting everyone.

[madnesstiger]

Cheers for the comments guys! Hope to make this one work!!

***

Anyway, back to business:

Croatia score midway through the 1st half to make it 1-0.

However, I can still see at least 1 more goal in this one yet, so:


BET02: CROATIA vs GERMANY, LAY 'NO NEXT GOAL' @ 6.8 (in-play, 30mins)

EQUIVALENT 'BACK' ODDS: 1.17

[Guy Fawkes]

Originally Posted by madnesstiger

BET02: CROATIA vs GERMANY, LAY 'NO NEXT GOAL' @ 6.8 (in-play, 30mins)

EQUIVALENT 'BACK' ODDS: 1.17

Nice one mate.

[madnesstiger]

Yep... the 2nd goal came in the 2nd half, and meant BET02 was also a winner.

***

Also, in the closing minutes, I placed my 3rd bet, but didn't have time to post it up on here.

Here it is though, a 'certainty', free money, whatever you want to call it - gave me an extra £3!


BET03: CROATIA vs GERMANY, LAY 'GERMANY' @ 70.0 (in-play, 85mins, 2:1)




New Bank: £258.94

[Hooloovoo]

nice start

[madnesstiger]

It's the joint-hosts up next, Austria, as they face Poland. A match in which I expect to see the Poles get on the scoresheet.

Cannot see Poland losing this one, and if they can score an early goal themselves, I can watch the rest in a more 'relaxed' manner!


BET04: AUSTRIA v POLAND, LAY 'CORRECT SCORE 2:0' @ 20.0

EQUIVALENT BACK ODDS: 1.05

[aliando]

good luck MT!

[madnesstiger]

Austria couldn't finish any of 3 clear opportunities, only for Poland to poach the first goal after 30minutes.

HT AUSTRIA 0:1 POLAND

[Hooloovoo]

nice, only 102 left, piece of cake

[SloppyJ]

Less than that because so far the odds have been 1.12 and 1.17.

[madnesstiger]

There's no rush to get this one finished, so will not touch any of the Brazilian Cup matches tonight, as tempting as it is!

Sloppy, you are quite right, the odds have been longer than the base rate of 1.04, so there are indeed less than 102 winners required!


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STARTING BANK: £200

TARGET BANK: £10,000

TOTAL WINNERS REQUIRED @ BASE ODDS OF 1.04: 105


WINNERS SO FAR: 4

CURRENT BANK: £271.92

AVERAGE 'BACK' ODDS: 1.0857

'BASE-RATE' WINNERS REQUIRED TO REACH TARGET: 97

[madnesstiger]

As I may not be back from work in time tomorrow, I've already placed the next bet.

***

Friday's tea-time Euro 2008 clash between Italy and Romania:


BET05: ITALY v ROMANIA, LAY 'CORRECT SCORE 0:1' @ 15.0

EQUIVALENT BACK ODDS: 1.07


I just cannot see Italy going another match without scoring a goal basically. Romania failed to impress me in their match against a poor French side and never scored one themselves either, and didn't really look like scoring.

I cannot see Italy losing this one, and expect them to bounce back from their thrashing by the awesome Dutch side in style. Backing the Italians to win is a bit risky for this thread, and so a low-scoring 'correct score' bet is in order me thinks!

[Hooloovoo]

ouch

[Hooloovoo]

anti-ouch

[SloppyJ]

Haha!