GH: Minutes of Adrenaline

[F.]

Well, this is my first Glory Hunt. It will be rather short, no longer than three or four weeks, and it is warm-up for my *real* Glory Hunt that will start in about one month.

I will be betting live during football matches. Basically the scheme is to bet in NO MORE GOALS during the last minutes of the 1st and/or 2nd half (that's where the name of the Hunt comes from). I copied this idea from another post in this forum and, if done correctly, it can be profitable on a short run (and that's what I'm looking for).

I will be using only one bookie, the new sponsor of Spanish champion and current sponsor of the Champions League winner. This bookie will be heretofore referred to as 'That-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named', or TWMNBN.

The odds I'll be taking will usually range from 1.10 to 1.30 but experience tells me most bets will be set at 1.15 or 1.20. My initial bank is 100 units and the goal of this hunt is to take it to 235 units (135% profit) before the end of July 2007. Bets will be fixed stakes at 65 units. This numbers are guidelines only, I might stray away from the stake size and/or odds if I feel there's value in the bet. Yes, I am aware this is a dangerous strategy but it's a level of risk I'm comfortable with. THIS IS NOT A PAPER TRAIL, THERE'S REAL MONEY ON THE LINE.

I will try to post at least twice a day on this thread: the first post will state matches I might be betting on, and the last post will be a summary of all bets placed for the day. In between I might post individual bets placed but I don't promiss I'll post *each* bet individually. All the bets will be in-play and therefore all posts will be made *after* the event but I will provide screenshots to show there's no trick.

I want to make clear that this Glory Hunt is *NOT* the result of any serious research and it isn't backed up by any stats. It's pure high stakes gambling and therefore very risky. My hope is to have a winning streak long enough to achieve my stated goal and nothing else. So kids, don't try this at home.

I am mostly asking for encouragement, prudence and common sense (since I usually throw any or all of those out of the window at some point). Please share your thoughts and I hope to see you around my thread even if it's just to say "you're full of bull but good luck anyway".


F.

P.S.: I might edit this initial post in case any issue requires further explanation.

[F.]

Copa América: MEXICO - Argentina (TV)

World U-20 Championship:
Uruguay - USA
Austria - Gambia (TV)
Spain - Brazil (TV)

'TV' means I have live TV coverage available.

Let the games begin

[NIGWAFC]

May I be the first to say .....

You're full of bull but good luck anyway

Seriously though, best of luck with it - will watch with interest.

[NIGWAFC]

In other words Im assuming your hoping for - more or less - 14 consective wins to reach your target, as losing on any of the first 7 would put you back to your starting bank, which hardly seems worth it for what your trying to achieve. Would it not therefore be more 'sensible' (if thats the right word to use here) to simply stake the whole bank and subsequent profits on each bet? If so then 1.15 would take you just 6 consecutive wins to reach your target.

Just a thought ...

[F.]

Originally Posted by NIGWAFC

May I be the first to say .....

You're full of bull but good luck anyway

Seriously though, best of luck with it - will watch with interest.

Thank you !!


F.

[F.]

Originally Posted by NIGWAFC

In other words Im assuming your hoping for - more or less - 14 consective wins to reach your target, as losing on any of the first 7 would put you back to your starting bank, which hardly seems worth it for what your trying to achieve.

Yes, 14 consecutive wins seems hard to achieve but as I said, this isn't such a 'rational' Hunt...

Originally Posted by NIGWAFC

Would it not therefore be more 'sensible' (if thats the right word to use here) to simply stake the whole bank and subsequent profits on each bet? If so then 1.15 would take you just 6 consecutive wins to reach your target.

Well, first of all I'm superstitious, that's how 65 units where chosen . Second, I don't want to drop below 65 units in the bank at any time, so I'm really looking to 3 or 4 initial wins and then build it from there. Finally, there's the issue of TWMNBN betting limits, which is around 150 units for stake+profit.


However, thanks for youre comments. I know you mean the best


F.

[F.]

OK, Half Time for first U-20 matches. Uruguay - USA had very poor odds. No go. And Austria - Gambia... OMG. I was about to place my bet, min 43@1.20 and *exactly* at that moment a red card goes to Gambia and prevents me from placing my bet. Since Austria had been playing better I withhold my bet... and Austria scores at 45:30. That was close...

I forgot to mention, I will NOT place bets on match that have had a red card or a 3 goal advantage to any side.

So MEXICO - Argentina is about to start. I'll be retiring from these two U-20 matches, but will only bet on MEX-Arg if the match is really dull (which I doubt; besides, for those of you that haven't noticed I'm Mexican an therefore I have an emotional bias on this match)


F.

[F.]

Bet #1: Uruguay - USA (U-20 Championship): Less than 2.5 goals
Stake: 40@1.15 - Success

Logic behind bet: USA scored equalizer at 86min, therefore both teams are less willing to take chances on the final minutes.

Bet was hit by TWMNBN betting limit. So stake had to be 40 units instead of 65.


F.

[F.]

Argentina leads 3-0 over MEXICO at 80min, so match will be no bet for me...


My beloved team...


F.

[F.]

BTW, MEX-Arg 1st half was really tough, it was a no bet and then Argentina scored at 44:30. Wise move to stay away...


F.

[F.]

Bet #2: Spain - Brazil (U-20 Championship): Under 4.5 goals
Stake: 65@1.15 - Success

Logic behind bet: Late Spain equalizer, both teams wouldn't take risks. However it was *not* the case and this one made me suffer. Bet was placed at 88min but injury time was 5 (FIVE!) minutes. During that time there were four clear goal chances. So bet was won but it was a close call.


F.

[F.]

All stats are cumulative:

Starting bank: 100 units
Current bank: 115.75 units
Placed bets: 2 (Won: 2 / Lost: 0)
Staked: 105 units
Net profit/loss: +15.75 units
Yield: 15%

It's a good start, let's hope the winnings last long enough


F.

[F.]

12/July/2007 - Possible matches to bet on:

Allsvenskan
Elfsborg - AIK

U-20 Championship:
Argentina - Poland
Zambia - Nigeria
Chile - Portugal
MEXICO - Congo

...and maybe other matches. TWMNBN is also announcing some club friendlies, women's Panamerican Games and a MLS match.


F.

[furufu]

Looks funny (to say something...) I can feel the adrenaline flowing

That's a nice idea to gamble with when TWMNBN hand the next bonus.

I'll be reading, good luck....

[NIGWAFC]

nice start Web

[Semikings]

good luck

stay focused

[F.]

Bet #3: Vietnam - Qatar (AFC Asian Cup): Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 65@1.12 - Success

Logic behind bet: 1.12 at 89:30, I just liked the odds and not many minutes to go.


F.

[F.]

As a side note, Elfsborg will be playing against AIK (Allsvenskan, Swedish league). TWMNBN offers two markets I'm very fond of: official added time (1st half) and official added time (2nd half). Mos likely I will place one or two bets during this match but they will not follow the guidelines of this Glory Hunt.

Please don't think I'm losing focus, actually this is the first rehearsal of my next Glory Hunt which will focus in these markets.


F.

[F.]

Originally Posted by furufu

Looks funny (to say something...) I can feel the adrenaline flowing

That's a nice idea to gamble with when TWMNBN hand the next bonus.

I'll be reading, good luck....

Hey thanks a lot, and although I'm not exactly a senior member...

to PL !!


F.

[F.]

Originally Posted by NIGWAFC

nice start Web

Yes indeed, but as you already pointed out it's nothing to be too excited about, as just one loss might wipe away 6 or 7 winning bets...


F.