[Ended] Half the bank on laying horses

[princecapri]

Lucky-ish escape there I think, as Donegal came second.

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29

[princecapri]

Lucky-ish escape there I think, as Donegal came second.

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit;

Nipping out for a bit, hence the early bet. Shall update when I get back.

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit ;

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63

I was initially trying to lay Tenezium, but in the end, the price went too far for my liking.

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63
17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit;

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63
17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25
18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI);

This is the bet that I am very confident about, hence all in on this.

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63
17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25
18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58

Now the bank is more than the starting stake, for once. Yay.

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63
17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25
18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58
19) Raise the Goblet (6:20 Gal) @ 7, for 95p profit;

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63
17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25
18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58
19) Raise the Goblet (6:20 Gal) @ 7, for 95p profit; £14.53
20) Green Tobasco (7:00 Gal) @ 30, for 47p profit;

Long odds, but worth laying.

[Danny Cash]

Originally Posted by princecapri

Hey Danny, cheers for the comments mate. Since my knowledge on horses is rather limited, any comment is more than welcomed. A serious question though (I am not being funny or sarcastic). Why did Shampagne win yesterday? It was 4/5 in my ratings and not in a very good position even otherwise. Maybe betting in a small race was not the right move?

I don't exactly know how to look at race results and realise my errors, so any pointers on that would be great.

OK mate I can only tell you what I saw and you're partly right with there only being a small number of runners which never helps....infact if you look at results with small fields over the last few days you'll probably notice a couple of 20-1 outsider winners...anyway...

Here's my verdict on why Shampagne had a good chance of winning using the racing post...

OK first thing, you picked a Nursery to lay a horse in, 2 year olds (and 3 year olds) can improve dramatically so it's hard to assess previous form.

Put a line through it's last race at Newbury, (drawn the wrong side over 5f on Good ground class 2 race).

Bear in mind this was a class 5 race over 7f.

We know the horse is capable of winning a race (and on an AW surface) since it won a class 4 race over 5f at Kempton but the important race is the next race over 6f Class 2 at Pontefract where you can see from the comments the horse was staying on strongly final furlong. That suggests to me 7f would be ideal for this horse and this is a massive drop in grade.

The other two pieces of form are both Class 1 races and over the minimum trip so hard to use that form as evidence, but that win in a Class 2 race staying on over 6f was the key for me.

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63
17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25
18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58
19) Raise the Goblet (6:20 Gal) @ 7, for 95p profit; £14.53
20) Green Tobasco (7:00 Gal) @ 30, for 47p profit (AI); £15.00
21) Nothingtodeclare (7:20 Wor) @ 15, for 47p profit;

Cheers Danny, that makes sense.

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£8.60, Day 2
12) Proponent (2:15 Good) @ 8, for 57p profit; £9.17
13) Lady Grantley (2:35 Bev) @ 8, for 60p profit; £9.77
14) Donegal (2:50 Good) @ 18.5, for 52p profit (AI); £10.29
15) Arabian Gleam (3:30 Good) @ 11.5, for 48p profit; £10.77
16) Always Cruising (4:20 Bev) @ 7, for 86p profit; £11.63
17) Kavachi (5:15 Good) @ 10, for 62p profit; £12.25
18) Jawad (5:45 Gal) @ 9.6, for £1.33 profit (AI); £13.58
19) Raise the Goblet (6:20 Gal) @ 7, for 95p profit; £14.53
20) Green Tobasco (7:00 Gal) @ 30, for 47p profit (AI); £15.00
21) Nothingtodeclare (7:20 Wor) @ 15, for 47p profit; £15.47

And with that, I shall call it a day, which has been quite successful, with 10/10 successful bets. The stake for tomorrow will be £15.47, and maybe another couple of good days can help me reach the first banking target.

19/21 Overall now, just above 90%. I am also keeping a running total with a different staking plan, to see if it could be succesful if a proportioned staking plan is used.

[princecapri]

New day, new-ish strategy. A new system that I created last night backtested quite well, giving 0 winners out of 1200+ runners, so in an adventurous fashion, I shall be going All In on the first selection of the day.

Starting Bank = £12.85
£15.47, Day 3
22) Amicus Curiae (1:50 Gal) @ 11.5, for £1.40 profit (AI);

[Evenstephen]

Not a bad start at all after a couple of losers. Registrar was a selection in one of my new backing systems and I've learned to my cost in the past never to lay Christine Dunnett horses at Yarmouth if they've been backed as it's her local track. Registrar won over course and distance 2 races previous and ran a shocker the last time over the same course and distance.

Anyway good luck with this system and I wish you every success with the other selections.

[princecapri]

Cheers Steve. The problem on my selection criteria is that I don't go in too deep to consider past histories of each horse/trainer. Perhaps I should, but till you mentioned, I had no clue that Registrar was trained by Christine Dunnett. Its a very useful and interesting fact actually, so I shall keep this in mind.

And thanks for your wishes, really appreciate them.

[princecapri]

I hate the fact that I almost always miss out on a decent price. This one went at 7.4, and I got 11.5

Starting Bank = £12.85
£15.47, Day 3
22) Amicus Curiae (1:50 Gal) @ 11.5, for £1.40 profit (AI); £16.87

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£15.47, Day 3
22) Amicus Curiae (1:50 Gal) @ 11.5, for £1.40 profit (AI); £16.87
23) Mudawin (2:15 Good) @ 10, for 88p profit;

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£15.47, Day 3
22) Amicus Curiae (1:50 Gal) @ 11.5, for £1.40 profit (AI); £16.87
23) Mudawin (2:15 Good) @ 10, for 88p profit; £17.75
23) Top the Charts (2:25 Gal) @ 7.2, for £1.19 profit;

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£15.47, Day 3
22) Amicus Curiae (1:50 Gal) @ 11.5, for £1.40 profit (AI); £16.87
23) Mudawin (2:15 Good) @ 10, for 88p profit; £17.75
24) Top the Charts (2:25 Gal) @ 7.2, for £1.19 profit; £18.94
25) Baltimore Jack (2:40 Redc) @ 10, for 95p profit;

[princecapri]

Starting Bank = £12.85
£15.47, Day 3
22) Amicus Curiae (1:50 Gal) @ 11.5, for £1.40 profit (AI); £16.87
23) Mudawin (2:15 Good) @ 10, for 88p profit; £17.75
24) Top the Charts (2:25 Gal) @ 7.2, for £1.19 profit; £18.94
25) Baltimore Jack (2:40 Redc) @ 10, for 95p profit; £19.89

Close shave there as Baltimore Jack finishes 2nd.