[Ended] £10 to something..., backing total goals

[princecapri]

Hello one and all,

Since I am fairly new here, I might end up breaking some rules. Even though I have read the Rules, please do point if I do something wrong.

There has been a lot of betting recently based on drip betting systems, and something that caught my eye today was backing 1 or more goals market in football.

Even though odds for these can be quite small (1.05 to 1.08), over a long-ish time period, the compiled staking plan should yield a good result. For example, £10 bet over 100 bets @ 1.05 gives roughly 1.5K, and @ 1.08, it gives roughly £15K (minus commission).

So I will attempt to join together a streak of 100 bets and get as high up from £10 as I can. I must admit that even though I promise to see this to the end, a certain amount (four figures) could tempt me to bank some of it. I hope I am forgiven for that, as money is short atm, and some extra in the bank would be nice.

Running this in Excel, using 100 bets, starting stake of £10 and odds of 1.07 yields:
After 10 bets: £19
After 50 bets: £250
After 75 bets: £1250
After 100 bets: £6252
(5% comms assumed)

So anyways, rules are as follows:
1. Back 1 goal or more (or lay 0-0, as apt), starting from £10.
2. Any football league can be considered. Teams will generally be thoroughly researched, and I will only go for ones I believe to yield a result, hopefully avoiding games which have in recent history produced 0-0 results.
3. All bets will be before the start of the game, and I will list them here.
4. There are freak results possible, but hopefully my judgment would help me avoid them.

Edit:
After some wise words from madnesstiger, I have decided to formulate a new banking strategy, which would help me pursue this sort of system again, in case this one fails prematurely. After reading his thread, I have come to the conclusion that I will bank certain amounts at certain check points.

At every 25th bet, I will bank:.
So, at bet 25, Bank £10.
Bet 50, Bank £30.
Bet 75, Bank £50.
Bet 100, Bank everything.

This is not aggressive banking, but should help me pay for any future trials. Since there is no specific target to reach, I will only continue (if possible) this endeavor to bet 100.
:Edit

Please feel to comment/suggest/sympathise/empathise/laud/lambaste/advice as you feel. Any constructive criticism will be deeply appreciated.

[aliando]

good luck princecapri!

[madnesstiger]

Hi PrinceCapri, and to the dreamland we call Glory Hunts!


Having read your intro to this thread, I will be interested in finding out how well you fare with this method.

This method has indeed been used before, and the best run of successes I witnessed was around the 42-ish mark. It does help to research these bets, but it comes down to a fair amount of luck as to whether you manage 100 wins or not!

As for the staking, may I suggest taking a read of my latest GH, 'MadnessDaily 6' to see an alternate method based on very similar odds. It sounds like you're a fellow Excel freak, so I'm sure you're quite capable of adjusting it to suit your needs as necessary.

It may help you, as, unless you do manage a 100-run streak on your first attempt, it enables you to withdraw some profits on-route which you can use to fund further attempts. See what you think. I'm only offering advice based on previous experience of this strategy.

Other than that, I wish you the best of luck, and will be following closely!

MT

[DJ]

Good luck PrinceCapri! Sounds like a good plan that you have, I presume that you're starting with the £10 stake? As you are aware the problem comes when the inevitable 0-0 rears its ugly head. You can never be sure which game might actually end goalless, I found this to my cost in the game of Brazil v Argentina, a less likely game for a 0-0 I would say it is hard to find and yet that is exactly the score that the game finished on. Anyhows hope you bare in mind Madness' spreadsheet as it sounds just the kind of tool that if used with your skilful picks could help you become very successful! All the best!!

[princecapri]

Hey guys, thanks for the responses. DJ, I am indeed starting with £10 stake. and yes, I did look into some 0-0 scorelines with EPL last season, some weird ones like ManU v Reading, and its sad because you would normally bank on one of these games to give you goals. So yea, I am aware that busts can happen, and can be based on luck and other factors. But I am hoping to be more selective and stay away from close games (like Arsenal - Man U or Arsenal - Chelsea). I will have a look at Madness' spreadsheet and see how he does things.

Madness, (6th attempt eh? Atleast you are persevering). But yea, I really like your point about banking. I thought it was against the rules in GH to bank, but if thats not the case, I'd be very happy to, as like I said, I would be too worried to get to a point and lose all of the bank, so yea, I will use your banking plan if thats ok. And I didn't know about the 42 mark, which is quite interesting. Hopefully I can get somewhere with this, as I wouldn't mind a decent size bankroll.

And cheers Aliando!

[Mr Accumulator]

0-0 laying 1+ backing ,doesnt work FACT

If you must do this ,the only way is to take the 1.11+ bets pre kick off and bank after every 5 or so bets . Any game can end 0-0 , ANY game, just because a game is 1.02 to back 1+ doesnt mean there will be goals . The free scorers such as Barcelona , Werder Bremen , Ajax , Man Utd , Arsenal , Real Madrid , Celtic , etc etc etc all made 0-0s last year at 1.04 or lower .

Rememeber the UEFA cup 2 years ago when AZ Alkmaar played Werder Bremen ??? Both top scorers in europe , cant defend for toffee , if ever there was a 0-0 lay that was it , it was around 44 for 0-0 , and guess what , it ended 0-0 !!

We`ll all been there , worn the tshirt , blah blah blah , and plain and simple it DOES NOT WORK


I urge you to try something different , something original , do something no one else has and make a name for yourself

Not having a go in anyway at all and i wish you the best of the luck , but this ISNT the way to go or the way forward , I know i did this for 5 years ,and theres always 1 just around the corner when you least expect it .

Good luck whatever you decide

Mr A

[Mr Accumulator]

2. Any football league can be considered. Teams will generally be thoroughly researched, and I will only go for ones I believe to yield a result, hopefully avoiding games which have in recent history produced 0-0 results.


You cant research 0-0s , they are the most random thing in the world . Kilmarnock had gone something like 100 games without 1 then got 2 in a week, 1 awat at Celtic which was about 90 to lay . You often get teams making 2 or 3 in a row , does that mean that the next game should be a lot shorter ? Or even a lot longer ?? Course it doesnt .

Theres 2 many contributing factors that may help a 0-0 happen , like bad pitch , sending off meaning the team with 10 men sit back and take a 0-0 . An underdog getting pummeled but being quite happy to take a 0-0 , An inspired goalkeeper or an out of form or lucky attacker . Happens time and time again for it to ever be value , and happens far too frequently for you to ever be able to run up a sequence

[Mr Accumulator]

Getting on my horse there , sorry about that , BUT i do know what im talking about . Its infuriated me for about 5 years ,and i gave up last year . I finally realised its the worst bet you could ever do . I hope you realise quicker than i did mate

[princecapri]

Hey Mr. A,

Thanks for the comments. Since you are highly revered and respected member around these parts of the forum, I am sure you know your stuff, and I am quite sure you are right too. Possibilities of 0-0's ocouring in a game are very random, and as such, there is no set pattern to completely negate their effect.

But then is there ever a perfect pattern for something?

Research will help me to minimize occasions where the occourance of 0-0 is higher than any other game. For example, I think it can be said with a fair amount of certainty that ManU-Arsenal game is more likely to produce less goals than ManU-Reading game. However, as ManU v Reading last year was 0-0, we can safely assume that simply backing 1+goal here prematch is not going to work. I know I am contradicting with the aim of this thread, but my idea is to provide an open view, a view which is open to further discussion.

I completely agree that at one point or another 0-0 will pop up. Its inevitable. But the idea is postpone that event for as long as possible. I am a very small time punter, and have been practicing for just over an year, nowhere near yours (or many other's experience level here). What attracted me to betting was the concept of predictive algorithms. The whole idea behind prediction is considering all possible variables in order to determine the outcome of an event, and its never 100%, never can be, well it can be, but then its not very realistic. I enjoy analysing games more than I enjoy making money on them. Money is just to keep score.

Anyways, the point I am trying to make is, I am still trying to find my feet in this place (not PL, I mean betting as a field). I will trip and learn, like you did over the past 5 years. I know you are doing me a favor by telling me that chances of this working out are quite minuscule; but I want to make my own mistakes. This is a lesson I dont mind learning myself as I have abundant time and resources at my disposal atm.


So yea, as much as I agree with your comment about 0-0's being totally random, I would like to try out still. Plus, I am getting a bit tired of horse racing atm (too many losers) so perhaps miss the footy season and need a break. This would fit in just well. If anything, it will be a good learning experience.

Thanks though, I really do appreciate you taking the time out to comment on this, but like a stubborn child, I won't cave in

[Mr Accumulator]

Good luck with this mate ,may the force be with you

[madnesstiger]

Some good discussion going on here (and the GH hasn't even started yet!)

Firstly, I agree with Mr A. and the fact that 0-0's can crop up n ANY match.

Secondly, I agree with PrinceCapri, and the fact that there isn't a perfect pattern for something to occur/not occur.

P.capri, I totally understand that you are determined to give this one a shot, and with a starting bank of £10, I cannot see it causing any harm, whether it succeeds or not. As you mentioned things like algorithms and the like, may I presume you are fairly interested in creating ratings systems and the like(?). Will you have a model in place to help determine which matches you bet on? If so, it is always pleasant to see someone else's unique ideas in action. If not, then it IS just luck that your playing against in the hope that you win enough to make your target.

Good luck with whatever you decide on, and as you said, you will learn new things every day with whatever method you choose!


MT

[princecapri]

Thanks mate

So I have got a shortlist of 4 games today, 4 games that I think will have goals, atleast one or more, although I am aiming for over 2.5, just to be on the safe side.

Zenith v Spartak Nalchik (at 1630)
Elfsborg v Gefle (at 1800)
Salzburg v Mattersburg (at 1830)

Timing is important here as if the bets need to carry on, the bank needs to be settled before the next bet.

So,
Starting Bank = £10
1) Zenith v Spartak, Lay 0-0 @ 23

When this comes through, I will consider one of the other two games, depending on the timing.

[princecapri]

madnesstiger, I am in the process of trying to calculate expected goals in each match, mostly based on form, but also based on previous encounters with teh same team, and the other team's goals obv. I tried something last year (overs/unders in EPL). It worked quite well, giving 75% Strike rate, but just enough to cover the stake (and a bit more), as obviously odds come into play.

But I dont yet have a generalised backing plan which can be applicable to any game. atm, I am trying to weigh each game on its merits, but it would be nice to have some rating system which could give me a potential for total goals in every game.

Still, that is a work in progress, and I will speed up the process in order to aid this system. But like I said, atm, I weigh each game on its merits, and decide on it being overs/unders. Something more conclusive is definitely needed.

[madnesstiger]

All you can do really is go on previous form for this kind of prediction market. Although team news may affect the players playing, and any different formation, cup strategy etc.

I have made a few models designed to predict the number of goals in a match by both teams, based on previous form and the like. I mention it briefly in my 'Madness Steeleworks' thread, and the ideas used are taken from Paul Steele's book 'Profitable Football Betting. It doesn't take into account previous head-2-heads, but does use 6 other criteria to help form the calculations. As far as predicting the number of goals in a game, I use the FACT (factorial) instruction in Excel, which gives a percentage chance of 'x' goals in a match. Would be interested if you have any further ideas on how you go about something like this.

Anyhow, I like the fact that you're doing some homework with this, and not just picking matches off the top of your head!

MT

[princecapri]

MT, admittedly, I have never read the book, but I am quite intrigued.

You talk of using factorial function to predict the probability of goals in a game. I am afraid I am not too sure how you go about it, would like some more info on that. Although a percentage chance of goals makes sense.

The idea that worked well for me a while ago, in EPl, was to divide the Premier league into 4 bands.
Band 1: Top 5 teams (in terms of points etc, debatable, but effective)
Band 2: Next 5 teams
Band 3: Next 5 teams
Band 4: Lowest teams (likes of Derby, Reading etc).

Now this is gross generalisation, but when teams meet as follows (home team first):
Band 1 v Band 4 (>2.5 goals)
Band 4 v Band 1 (<2.5 goals)

This is surprising, since one would expect Derby v Man U to produce a lot of goals, and most of the time it did. But the logic was that weaker teams at home tend to defend more than attack, and a team like Derby would be very happy to take a point of ManU, Arsenal or Chelsea.

Again, this was open to interpretation, and was not the final call in terms of number of goals. Still, it was only applicable to EPL due to playing knowledge regarding various teams. I need a better model to encompass as many leagues as possible, and something that should be more stable as well.

I will definitely consider your idea regarding probabilities of each team scoring however many, although I am still confused about your use of factorial function.

[princecapri]

Oh yea, the thing that irks me off with these systems is that backtesting can be troublesome.

For example, it is my understanding, that a short odds home game will more often than not produce a lot of goals (generall >2), but there is no way of testing this hypothesis. Is there?

[madnesstiger]

OK.. I may be the bearer of good news!

Goto football-data.co.uk, where you can download past results data for many top leagues from the past 10-15 years... including the pre-match odds for some leagues (inc. EPL).

Next, Hide yourself away from the world for a few hours in front of your computer, and fire-up Excel, and have a play!

I have alot of past data to some leagues (taken from the above site), but haven't got any odds data with it I'm afraid.

***

As for the 'FACT' function, watch and learn...

For example....

• A team has scored 2.68 goals, on average, in their home matches
• To find the % chance of them scoring exactly 1 goal in their next match, with the FACT function, would be:
• =(((POWER(2.68, 1))*POWER(2.718,-2.68))/FACT(1))
• Where 2.68 is the average goals scored in the past
• The '1' is the number of goals you want to find the chance of
• The 2.718 is a constant in these calculations

The result of this calculation would be: 18.4%

From this, you can carry out further calculations, to find the chance of the same team scoring exactly '0' goals. The answer to this would be 6.9%.

Therefore, we can say the % chance of this team scoring OVER 1.5 goals in the next match would be: 100-(18.4+6.9) = 74.7%

The way I use this calculation is as follows.. you ready?!...

• Average of ((Goals scored+goals conceded in last 6 for home team)+(goals scored+goals conceded at home all season for home team)) + ((Goals scored+goals conceded in last 6 for away team)+(goals scored+goals conceded away all season for away team))
• I use the result of this calculation in my FACTORIAL formulas as mentioned above to create a % chance of UNDER/OVER 2.5 goals in the match.

I also use results from the above calculations to find the % chance of each team scoring UNDER/OVER 1.5 goals in the match, and find some bets which tie-in with this.

For example, a match-up may give these results...

• 2.5 Goals in match: UNDER 44.2% OVER 55.8%
• 1.5 Goals by HOME team: UNDER 35.6% OVER 64.4%
• 1.5 Goals by AWAY team: UNDER 83.2% OVER 16.8%

From this, I may be able to LAY the correct score of 0:1 and be more confident of a win at equivalent BACK odds of about 1.05, rather than LAYING the 1:2 scoreline at even longer odds.

I use a separate spreadsheet to work out a match rating to predict home win, draw and away win outcomes, and look at the overall ratings from this and the %chance of goals, and make a decision from there.

Hope most the above makes some sort of sense, and that you may find it of some use!


MT

[princecapri]

Blimey! That is very interesting.

Cheers MT, I have locked the doors and drawn the curtains. I am ready.

[madnesstiger]

Originally Posted by princecapri

Blimey! That is very interesting.

Cheers MT, I have locked the doors and drawn the curtains. I am ready.

Grab a coffee, and geek yourself up son!

[madnesstiger]

In fact, if you need any assistance on the way, get me on msn/yahoo messenger xcarlitox2004@hotmail.com