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Old 26-11-2009, 22:27   #1 (permalink)
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Default Ebor's Premier League Lay System [+£206.50 | SR 91/111 82% | ROI 9.6%]

Ok, I ended my last Glory Hunt by taking £20 to just about £100, it was enjoyable, but now for something completely different. ..... !

This is a system i've been dabbling with for a while. I was going to put it in Systems & Strategies forum but don't want to give much about it away just yet, so it's home will be here.

It basically involves a Premier League ratings system and all qualifiers will be LAID on Betfair.

Starting bank is £100 and although I back tested it to fixed stakes which showed healthy profits, I am going to adopt a strategy of 3% of the bank per bet. This will only be adjusted at the end of each day.

As mentioned, this system was backtested for the last 5 seasons (each season from November onwards) in over 1400 games. The results were as follows.

All to 1pt level stakes

Season 08-09
Bets: 154 | Wins 128 | S/R 83%
P/L +60.63

Season 07-08
Bets: 151 | Wins 137 | S/R 90%
P/L +54.53

Season 06-07
Bets: 162 | Wins 140 | S/R 86%
P/L +45.86

Season 05-06
Bets: 168| Wins 148 | S/R 88%
P/L +72.04

Season 04-05
Bets: 152 | Wins 130 | S/R 86%
P/L +34.94


So, as you can see, it's promising.

for a good run in 2009/10.

Starts Saturday.
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Old 26-11-2009, 23:06   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Definitly looks promising - all the best with this one mate
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Old 27-11-2009, 01:52   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Looks interesting 'Ebor'

Good Luck!!!!!
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Old 27-11-2009, 18:22   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Thanks chaps, will kick things off for tomorrow's games. Didn't realise there'd be so many selections though! So long as Hull don't beat Citeh, this thread wil last longer than 24 hours!

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiability
128-NovStoke to beat BlackburnLay4.70£3.00£11.10
228-NovBolton to beat FulhamLay5.00£3.00£12.00
328-NovHull to beat Man CityLay13.50£3.00£37.50
428-NovBurnley to beat West HamLay5.00£3.00£12.00
528-NovSunderland to beat WiganLay3.15£3.00£6.45
628-NovTottenham to beat VillaLay3.15£3.00£6.45
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Old 27-11-2009, 18:52   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

some tough matches un the league this week i can see a few bein draws stoke-blackburn bolton-fulham burnley-west ham tottenham-villa arsenal-chelsea liverpool-everton birmingham-wolves just did a random check a quid accy on that is 5003.24 hmm might stick a quid on
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Old 29-11-2009, 10:45   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Hope you had a few quid on the draw singles Preston!

Anyway, a perfect start for this system.


BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiabilityResWin?ReturnP/L ACBankOverall P/LS/RYield
128-NovStoke to beat BlackburnLay4.70£3.00£11.100-0WIN£3.00£2.85£102.85£2.85100.095.0
228-NovBolton to beat FulhamLay5.00£3.00£12.001-1WIN£3.00£2.85£105.70£5.70100.095.0
328-NovHull to beat Man CityLay13.50£3.00£37.501-1WIN£3.00£2.85£108.55£8.55100.095.0
428-NovBurnley to beat West HamLay5.00£3.00£12.003-5WIN£3.00£2.85£111.40£11.40100.095.0
528-NovSunderland to beat WiganLay3.15£3.00£6.450-1WIN£3.00£2.85£114.25£14.25100.095.0
628-NovTottenham to beat VillaLay3.15£3.00£6.451-1WIN£3.00£2.85£117.10£17.10100.095.0
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Old 29-11-2009, 10:53   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays [100% S/R]

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiability
729-NovChelsea to beat ArsenalLay2.72£3.51£6.04
829-NovLiverpool to beat EvertonLay2.12£3.51£3.93


I will be mightily surprised if the system doesn't see its first loser today!
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Old 29-11-2009, 19:46   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays [100% S/R]

Not a good Sunday.

Still in profit though.

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiabilityResWin?ReturnP/L ACBankOverall P/LS/RYield
729-NovChelsea to beat ArsenalLay2.72£3.51£6.043-0Lose-£6.04-£6.04£111.06£11.0685.751.4
829-NovLiverpool to beat EvertonLay2.12£3.51£3.932-0Lose-£3.93-£3.93£107.13£7.1375.028.5
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Old 30-11-2009, 01:06   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

no mate i backed out at the end wish i had off done unlucky on the two matches today
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Old 05-12-2009, 11:29   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiability
95-DecBurnley to beat PortsmouthLay4.60£3.21£11.56


One lay for the early kick off ...
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Old 05-12-2009, 11:38   #11 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiability
95-DecBurnley to beat PortsmouthLay4.60£3.21£11.56
105-DecStoke to beat ArsenalLay16.50£3.21£49.76
115-DecHull to beat Aston VillaLay8.80£3.21£25.04
125-DecLiverpool to beat BlackburnLay1.77£3.21£2.47
135-DecMan United to beat West HamLay1.49£3.21£1.57
145-DecBirmingham to beat WiganLay4.10£3.21£9.95
155-DecChelsea to beat Man CityLay1.92£3.21£2.95
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Old 05-12-2009, 22:09   #12 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Slight profit for the day.

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiabilityResWin?ReturnP/L ACBankOverall P/LS/RYield
95-DecBurnley to beat PortsmouthLay4.60£3.21£11.560-2WIN£3.21£3.05£110.18£10.1877.836.1
105-DecStoke to beat ArsenalLay16.50£3.21£49.760-2WIN£3.21£3.05£113.23£13.2380.042.1
115-DecHull to beat Aston VillaLay8.80£3.21£25.040-3WIN£3.21£3.05£116.28£16.2881.847.0
125-DecLiverpool to beat BlackburnLay1.77£3.21£2.470-0WIN£3.21£3.05£119.33£19.3383.351.1
135-DecMan United to beat West HamLay1.49£3.21£1.574-0Lose-£1.57-£1.57£117.76£17.7676.943.2
145-DecBirmingham to beat WiganLay4.10£3.21£9.953-2Lose-£9.95-£9.95£107.81£7.8171.417.6
155-DecChelsea to beat Man CityLay1.92£3.21£2.951-2WIN£3.21£3.05£110.86£10.8673.322.9
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Old 05-12-2009, 22:12   #13 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Just the one for tomorrow:

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiability
166-DecSunderland to beat FulhamLay4.00£3.33£9.99
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Old 06-12-2009, 17:19   #14 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Ends in a bit more profit for the week.

DatePickB/LOddsStkLiabilityResWin?ReturnP/L ACBankOverall P/LS/R
128-NovStoke to beat BlackburnLay4.70£3.00£11.100-0WIN£3.00£2.85£102.85£2.85100.0
228-NovBolton to beat FulhamLay5.00£3.00£12.001-1WIN£3.00£2.85£105.70£5.70100.0
328-NovHull to beat Man CityLay13.50£3.00£37.501-1WIN£3.00£2.85£108.55£8.55100.0
428-NovBurnley to beat West HamLay5.00£3.00£12.003-5WIN£3.00£2.85£111.40£11.40100.0
528-NovSunderland to beat WiganLay3.15£3.00£6.450-1WIN£3.00£2.85£114.25£14.25100.0
628-NovTottenham to beat VillaLay3.15£3.00£6.451-1WIN£3.00£2.85£117.10£17.10100.0
729-NovChelsea to beat ArsenalLay2.72£3.51£6.043-0Lose-£6.04-£6.04£111.06£11.0685.7
829-NovLiverpool to beat EvertonLay2.12£3.51£3.932-0Lose-£3.93-£3.93£107.13£7.1375.0
95-DecBurnley to beat PortsmouthLay4.60£3.21£11.560-2WIN£3.21£3.05£110.18£10.1877.8
105-DecStoke to beat ArsenalLay16.50£3.21£49.760-2WIN£3.21£3.05£113.23£13.2380.0
115-DecHull to beat Aston VillaLay8.80£3.21£25.040-3WIN£3.21£3.05£116.28£16.2881.8
125-DecLiverpool to beat BlackburnLay1.77£3.21£2.470-0WIN£3.21£3.05£119.33£19.3383.3
135-DecMan United to beat West HamLay1.49£3.21£1.574-0Lose-£1.57-£1.57£117.76£17.7676.9
145-DecBirmingham to beat WiganLay4.10£3.21£9.953-2Lose-£9.95-£9.95£107.81£7.8171.4
155-DecChelsea to beat Man CityLay1.92£3.21£2.951-2WIN£3.21£3.05£110.86£10.8673.3
166-DecSunderland to beat FulhamLay4.00£3.33£9.990-1WIN£3.33£3.16£114.02£14.0275.0
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Old 14-12-2009, 18:51   #15 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Missed the weekend as way away but back for the midweek games.

DatePickB/LOddsStkLiability
1715-DecAston Villa to beat SunderlandLay2.60£3.42£5.47
1815-DecBlackburn to beat BirminghamLay3.70£3.42£9.23
1915-DecWest Ham to beat BoltonLay3.55£3.42£8.72
2015-DecWolves to beat Man UnitedLay27.00£3.42£88.92
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Old 15-12-2009, 22:09   #16 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Bit more profit tonight so musn't grumble.

DatePickB/LOddsStkLiabilityResWin?ReturnP/L ACBankOverall P/LS/R
1715-DecAston Villa to beat SunderlandLay2.60£3.42£5.472-0Lose-£5.47-£5.47£108.55£8.5570.6
1815-DecBlackburn to beat BirminghamLay3.70£3.42£9.231-2WIN£3.42£3.25£111.80£11.8072.2
1915-DecWest Ham to beat BoltonLay3.55£3.42£8.721-3WIN£3.42£3.25£115.04£15.0473.7
2015-DecWolves to beat Man UnitedLay27.00£3.42£88.920-3WIN£3.42£3.25£118.29£18.2975.0
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Old 15-12-2009, 22:12   #17 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Just the one selection tomorrow ....

DatePickB/LOddsStkLiability
2116-DecWigan to beat LiverpoolLay13.50£3.55£44.38
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Old 16-12-2009, 22:14   #18 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Liverpool do the business tonight so an update after 21 bets ...

BetDatePickB/LOddsStkLiabilityResWin?ReturnP/L ACBankOverall P/LS/R
128-NovStoke to beat BlackburnLay4.70£3.00£11.100-0WIN£3.00£2.85£102.85£2.85100.0
228-NovBolton to beat FulhamLay5.00£3.00£12.001-1WIN£3.00£2.85£105.70£5.70100.0
328-NovHull to beat Man CityLay13.50£3.00£37.501-1WIN£3.00£2.85£108.55£8.55100.0
428-NovBurnley to beat West HamLay5.00£3.00£12.003-5WIN£3.00£2.85£111.40£11.40100.0
528-NovSunderland to beat WiganLay3.15£3.00£6.450-1WIN£3.00£2.85£114.25£14.25100.0
628-NovTottenham to beat VillaLay3.15£3.00£6.451-1WIN£3.00£2.85£117.10£17.10100.0
729-NovChelsea to beat ArsenalLay2.72£3.51£6.043-0Lose-£6.04-£6.04£111.06£11.0685.7
829-NovLiverpool to beat EvertonLay2.12£3.51£3.932-0Lose-£3.93-£3.93£107.13£7.1375.0
95-DecBurnley to beat PortsmouthLay4.60£3.21£11.560-2WIN£3.21£3.05£110.18£10.1877.8
105-DecStoke to beat ArsenalLay16.50£3.21£49.760-2WIN£3.21£3.05£113.23£13.2380.0
115-DecHull to beat Aston VillaLay8.80£3.21£25.040-3WIN£3.21£3.05£116.28£16.2881.8
125-DecLiverpool to beat BlackburnLay1.77£3.21£2.470-0WIN£3.21£3.05£119.33£19.3383.3
135-DecMan United to beat West HamLay1.49£3.21£1.574-0Lose-£1.57-£1.57£117.76£17.7676.9
145-DecBirmingham to beat WiganLay4.10£3.21£9.953-2Lose-£9.95-£9.95£107.81£7.8171.4
155-DecChelsea to beat Man CityLay1.92£3.21£2.951-2WIN£3.21£3.05£110.86£10.8673.3
166-DecSunderland to beat FulhamLay4.00£3.33£9.990-1WIN£3.33£3.16£114.02£14.0275.0
1715-DecAston Villa to beat SunderlandLay2.60£3.42£5.472-0Lose-£5.47-£5.47£108.55£8.5570.6
1815-DecBlackburn to beat BirminghamLay3.70£3.42£9.231-2WIN£3.42£3.25£111.80£11.8072.2
1915-DecWest Ham to beat BoltonLay3.55£3.42£8.721-3WIN£3.42£3.25£115.04£15.0473.7
2015-DecWolves to beat Man UnitedLay27.00£3.42£88.920-3WIN£3.42£3.25£118.29£18.2975.0
2116-DecWigan to beat LiverpoolLay13.50£3.55£44.381-2WIN£3.55£3.37£121.67£21.6776.2
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Old 16-12-2009, 22:21   #19 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Nice job

Last edited by Jesse; 16-12-2009 at 22:21.
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Old 16-12-2009, 22:43   #20 (permalink)
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Default Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays

Thanks mate,

Long may it continue.
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