Ebor's Premier League Lay System [+£206.50 | SR 91/111 82% | ROI 9.6%] - The Punters Lounge

Ebor · 26-11-2009, 22:27

Ok, I ended my last Glory Hunt by taking £20 to just about £100, it was enjoyable, but now for something completely different. ..... !

This is a system i've been dabbling with for a while. I was going to put it in Systems & Strategies forum but don't want to give much about it away just yet, so it's home will be here.

It basically involves a Premier League ratings system and all qualifiers will be LAID on Betfair.

Starting bank is £100 and although I back tested it to fixed stakes which showed healthy profits, I am going to adopt a strategy of 3% of the bank per bet. This will only be adjusted at the end of each day.

As mentioned, this system was backtested for the last 5 seasons (each season from November onwards) in over 1400 games. The results were as follows.

All to 1pt level stakes

Season 08-09
Bets: 154 | Wins 128 | S/R 83%
P/L +60.63

Season 07-08
Bets: 151 | Wins 137 | S/R 90%
P/L +54.53

Season 06-07
Bets: 162 | Wins 140 | S/R 86%
P/L +45.86

Season 05-06
Bets: 168| Wins 148 | S/R 88%
P/L +72.04

Season 04-05
Bets: 152 | Wins 130 | S/R 86%
P/L +34.94

So, as you can see, it's promising.

for a good run in 2009/10.

Starts Saturday.

Danny Cash · 26-11-2009, 23:06

Definitly looks promising - all the best with this one mate

madnesstiger · 27-11-2009, 01:52

Looks interesting 'Ebor'

Good Luck!!!!!

Ebor · 27-11-2009, 18:22

Thanks chaps, will kick things off for tomorrow's games. Didn't realise there'd be so many selections though! So long as Hull don't beat Citeh, this thread wil last longer than 24 hours!

Bet	Date	Pick	B/L	Odds	Stk	Liability
1	28-Nov	Stoke to beat Blackburn	Lay	4.70	£3.00	£11.10
2	28-Nov	Bolton to beat Fulham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00
3	28-Nov	Hull to beat Man City	Lay	13.50	£3.00	£37.50
4	28-Nov	Burnley to beat West Ham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00
5	28-Nov	Sunderland to beat Wigan	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45
6	28-Nov	Tottenham to beat Villa	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45

preston2009 · 27-11-2009, 18:52

some tough matches un the league this week i can see a few bein draws stoke-blackburn bolton-fulham burnley-west ham tottenham-villa arsenal-chelsea liverpool-everton birmingham-wolves just did a random check a quid accy on that is 5003.24 hmm might stick a quid on

Ebor · 29-11-2009, 10:45

Hope you had a few quid on the draw singles Preston!

Anyway, a perfect start for this system.

Bet	Date	Pick	B/L	Odds	Stk	Liability	Res	Win?	Return	P/L AC	Bank	Overall P/L	S/R	Yield
1	28-Nov	Stoke to beat Blackburn	Lay	4.70	£3.00	£11.10	0-0	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£102.85	£2.85	100.0	95.0
2	28-Nov	Bolton to beat Fulham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£105.70	£5.70	100.0	95.0
3	28-Nov	Hull to beat Man City	Lay	13.50	£3.00	£37.50	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£108.55	£8.55	100.0	95.0
4	28-Nov	Burnley to beat West Ham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00	3-5	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£111.40	£11.40	100.0	95.0
5	28-Nov	Sunderland to beat Wigan	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45	0-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£114.25	£14.25	100.0	95.0
6	28-Nov	Tottenham to beat Villa	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£117.10	£17.10	100.0	95.0

Ebor · 29-11-2009, 10:53

Bet

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

7	29-Nov	Chelsea to beat Arsenal	Lay	2.72	£3.51	£6.04
8	29-Nov	Liverpool to beat Everton	Lay	2.12	£3.51	£3.93

I will be mightily surprised if the system doesn't see its first loser today!

Ebor · 29-11-2009, 19:46

Not a good Sunday.

Still in profit though.

Bet

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

Res

Win?

Return

P/L AC

Bank

Overall P/L

S/R

Yield

7	29-Nov	Chelsea to beat Arsenal	Lay	2.72	£3.51	£6.04	3-0	Lose	-£6.04	-£6.04	£111.06	£11.06	85.7	51.4
8	29-Nov	Liverpool to beat Everton	Lay	2.12	£3.51	£3.93	2-0	Lose	-£3.93	-£3.93	£107.13	£7.13	75.0	28.5

preston2009 · 30-11-2009, 01:06

no mate i backed out at the end wish i had off done unlucky on the two matches today

Ebor · 05-12-2009, 11:29

Bet

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

9

5-Dec

Burnley to beat Portsmouth

Lay

4.60

£3.21

£11.56

One lay for the early kick off ...

Ebor · 05-12-2009, 11:38

Bet

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

9	5-Dec	Burnley to beat Portsmouth	Lay	4.60	£3.21	£11.56
10	5-Dec	Stoke to beat Arsenal	Lay	16.50	£3.21	£49.76
11	5-Dec	Hull to beat Aston Villa	Lay	8.80	£3.21	£25.04
12	5-Dec	Liverpool to beat Blackburn	Lay	1.77	£3.21	£2.47
13	5-Dec	Man United to beat West Ham	Lay	1.49	£3.21	£1.57
14	5-Dec	Birmingham to beat Wigan	Lay	4.10	£3.21	£9.95
15	5-Dec	Chelsea to beat Man City	Lay	1.92	£3.21	£2.95

Ebor · 05-12-2009, 22:09

Slight profit for the day.

Bet

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

Res

Win?

Return

P/L AC

Bank

Overall P/L

S/R

Yield

9	5-Dec	Burnley to beat Portsmouth	Lay	4.60	£3.21	£11.56	0-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£110.18	£10.18	77.8	36.1
10	5-Dec	Stoke to beat Arsenal	Lay	16.50	£3.21	£49.76	0-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£113.23	£13.23	80.0	42.1
11	5-Dec	Hull to beat Aston Villa	Lay	8.80	£3.21	£25.04	0-3	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£116.28	£16.28	81.8	47.0
12	5-Dec	Liverpool to beat Blackburn	Lay	1.77	£3.21	£2.47	0-0	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£119.33	£19.33	83.3	51.1
13	5-Dec	Man United to beat West Ham	Lay	1.49	£3.21	£1.57	4-0	Lose	-£1.57	-£1.57	£117.76	£17.76	76.9	43.2
14	5-Dec	Birmingham to beat Wigan	Lay	4.10	£3.21	£9.95	3-2	Lose	-£9.95	-£9.95	£107.81	£7.81	71.4	17.6
15	5-Dec	Chelsea to beat Man City	Lay	1.92	£3.21	£2.95	1-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£110.86	£10.86	73.3	22.9

Ebor · 05-12-2009, 22:12

Just the one for tomorrow:

Bet

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

16

6-Dec

Sunderland to beat Fulham

Lay

4.00

£3.33

£9.99

Ebor · 06-12-2009, 17:19

Ends in a bit more profit for the week.

	Date	Pick	B/L	Odds	Stk	Liability	Res	Win?	Return	P/L AC	Bank	Overall P/L	S/R
1	28-Nov	Stoke to beat Blackburn	Lay	4.70	£3.00	£11.10	0-0	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£102.85	£2.85	100.0
2	28-Nov	Bolton to beat Fulham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£105.70	£5.70	100.0
3	28-Nov	Hull to beat Man City	Lay	13.50	£3.00	£37.50	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£108.55	£8.55	100.0
4	28-Nov	Burnley to beat West Ham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00	3-5	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£111.40	£11.40	100.0
5	28-Nov	Sunderland to beat Wigan	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45	0-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£114.25	£14.25	100.0
6	28-Nov	Tottenham to beat Villa	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£117.10	£17.10	100.0
7	29-Nov	Chelsea to beat Arsenal	Lay	2.72	£3.51	£6.04	3-0	Lose	-£6.04	-£6.04	£111.06	£11.06	85.7
8	29-Nov	Liverpool to beat Everton	Lay	2.12	£3.51	£3.93	2-0	Lose	-£3.93	-£3.93	£107.13	£7.13	75.0
9	5-Dec	Burnley to beat Portsmouth	Lay	4.60	£3.21	£11.56	0-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£110.18	£10.18	77.8
10	5-Dec	Stoke to beat Arsenal	Lay	16.50	£3.21	£49.76	0-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£113.23	£13.23	80.0
11	5-Dec	Hull to beat Aston Villa	Lay	8.80	£3.21	£25.04	0-3	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£116.28	£16.28	81.8
12	5-Dec	Liverpool to beat Blackburn	Lay	1.77	£3.21	£2.47	0-0	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£119.33	£19.33	83.3
13	5-Dec	Man United to beat West Ham	Lay	1.49	£3.21	£1.57	4-0	Lose	-£1.57	-£1.57	£117.76	£17.76	76.9
14	5-Dec	Birmingham to beat Wigan	Lay	4.10	£3.21	£9.95	3-2	Lose	-£9.95	-£9.95	£107.81	£7.81	71.4
15	5-Dec	Chelsea to beat Man City	Lay	1.92	£3.21	£2.95	1-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£110.86	£10.86	73.3
16	6-Dec	Sunderland to beat Fulham	Lay	4.00	£3.33	£9.99	0-1	WIN	£3.33	£3.16	£114.02	£14.02	75.0

Ebor · 14-12-2009, 18:51

Missed the weekend as way away but back for the midweek games.

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

17	15-Dec	Aston Villa to beat Sunderland	Lay	2.60	£3.42	£5.47
18	15-Dec	Blackburn to beat Birmingham	Lay	3.70	£3.42	£9.23
19	15-Dec	West Ham to beat Bolton	Lay	3.55	£3.42	£8.72
20	15-Dec	Wolves to beat Man United	Lay	27.00	£3.42	£88.92

Ebor · 15-12-2009, 22:09

Bit more profit tonight so musn't grumble.

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

Res

Win?

Return

P/L AC

Bank

Overall P/L

S/R

17	15-Dec	Aston Villa to beat Sunderland	Lay	2.60	£3.42	£5.47	2-0	Lose	-£5.47	-£5.47	£108.55	£8.55	70.6
18	15-Dec	Blackburn to beat Birmingham	Lay	3.70	£3.42	£9.23	1-2	WIN	£3.42	£3.25	£111.80	£11.80	72.2
19	15-Dec	West Ham to beat Bolton	Lay	3.55	£3.42	£8.72	1-3	WIN	£3.42	£3.25	£115.04	£15.04	73.7
20	15-Dec	Wolves to beat Man United	Lay	27.00	£3.42	£88.92	0-3	WIN	£3.42	£3.25	£118.29	£18.29	75.0

Ebor · 15-12-2009, 22:12

Just the one selection tomorrow ....

Date

Pick

B/L

Odds

Stk

Liability

21

16-Dec

Wigan to beat Liverpool

Lay

13.50

£3.55

£44.38

Ebor · 16-12-2009, 22:14

Liverpool do the business tonight so an update after 21 bets ...

Bet	Date	Pick	B/L	Odds	Stk	Liability	Res	Win?	Return	P/L AC	Bank	Overall P/L	S/R
1	28-Nov	Stoke to beat Blackburn	Lay	4.70	£3.00	£11.10	0-0	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£102.85	£2.85	100.0
2	28-Nov	Bolton to beat Fulham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£105.70	£5.70	100.0
3	28-Nov	Hull to beat Man City	Lay	13.50	£3.00	£37.50	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£108.55	£8.55	100.0
4	28-Nov	Burnley to beat West Ham	Lay	5.00	£3.00	£12.00	3-5	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£111.40	£11.40	100.0
5	28-Nov	Sunderland to beat Wigan	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45	0-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£114.25	£14.25	100.0
6	28-Nov	Tottenham to beat Villa	Lay	3.15	£3.00	£6.45	1-1	WIN	£3.00	£2.85	£117.10	£17.10	100.0
7	29-Nov	Chelsea to beat Arsenal	Lay	2.72	£3.51	£6.04	3-0	Lose	-£6.04	-£6.04	£111.06	£11.06	85.7
8	29-Nov	Liverpool to beat Everton	Lay	2.12	£3.51	£3.93	2-0	Lose	-£3.93	-£3.93	£107.13	£7.13	75.0
9	5-Dec	Burnley to beat Portsmouth	Lay	4.60	£3.21	£11.56	0-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£110.18	£10.18	77.8
10	5-Dec	Stoke to beat Arsenal	Lay	16.50	£3.21	£49.76	0-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£113.23	£13.23	80.0
11	5-Dec	Hull to beat Aston Villa	Lay	8.80	£3.21	£25.04	0-3	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£116.28	£16.28	81.8
12	5-Dec	Liverpool to beat Blackburn	Lay	1.77	£3.21	£2.47	0-0	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£119.33	£19.33	83.3
13	5-Dec	Man United to beat West Ham	Lay	1.49	£3.21	£1.57	4-0	Lose	-£1.57	-£1.57	£117.76	£17.76	76.9
14	5-Dec	Birmingham to beat Wigan	Lay	4.10	£3.21	£9.95	3-2	Lose	-£9.95	-£9.95	£107.81	£7.81	71.4
15	5-Dec	Chelsea to beat Man City	Lay	1.92	£3.21	£2.95	1-2	WIN	£3.21	£3.05	£110.86	£10.86	73.3
16	6-Dec	Sunderland to beat Fulham	Lay	4.00	£3.33	£9.99	0-1	WIN	£3.33	£3.16	£114.02	£14.02	75.0
17	15-Dec	Aston Villa to beat Sunderland	Lay	2.60	£3.42	£5.47	2-0	Lose	-£5.47	-£5.47	£108.55	£8.55	70.6
18	15-Dec	Blackburn to beat Birmingham	Lay	3.70	£3.42	£9.23	1-2	WIN	£3.42	£3.25	£111.80	£11.80	72.2
19	15-Dec	West Ham to beat Bolton	Lay	3.55	£3.42	£8.72	1-3	WIN	£3.42	£3.25	£115.04	£15.04	73.7
20	15-Dec	Wolves to beat Man United	Lay	27.00	£3.42	£88.92	0-3	WIN	£3.42	£3.25	£118.29	£18.29	75.0
21	16-Dec	Wigan to beat Liverpool	Lay	13.50	£3.55	£44.38	1-2	WIN	£3.55	£3.37	£121.67	£21.67	76.2

Jesse · 16-12-2009, 22:21

Nice job

Ebor · 16-12-2009, 22:43

Thanks mate,

Long may it continue.

26-11-2009, 22:27	#1 (permalink)
Ebor Historic Pub Inspector Join Date: 04 Mar 2006 Location: O'er yonder Age: 29 Posts: 6,746 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Ebor's Premier League Lay System [+£206.50 \| SR 91/111 82% \| ROI 9.6%] Ok, I ended my last Glory Hunt by taking £20 to just about £100, it was enjoyable, but now for something completely different. ..... ! This is a system i've been dabbling with for a while. I was going to put it in Systems & Strategies forum but don't want to give much about it away just yet, so it's home will be here. It basically involves a Premier League ratings system and all qualifiers will be LAID on Betfair. Starting bank is £100 and although I back tested it to fixed stakes which showed healthy profits, I am going to adopt a strategy of 3% of the bank per bet. This will only be adjusted at the end of each day. As mentioned, this system was backtested for the last 5 seasons (each season from November onwards) in over 1400 games. The results were as follows. All to 1pt level stakes Season 08-09 Bets: 154 \| Wins 128 \| S/R 83% P/L +60.63 Season 07-08 Bets: 151 \| Wins 137 \| S/R 90% P/L +54.53 Season 06-07 Bets: 162 \| Wins 140 \| S/R 86% P/L +45.86 Season 05-06 Bets: 168\| Wins 148 \| S/R 88% P/L +72.04 Season 04-05 Bets: 152 \| Wins 130 \| S/R 86% P/L +34.94 So, as you can see, it's promising. for a good run in 2009/10. Starts Saturday. __________________ "To spend our days betting on three-legged horses with beautiful names" -- Bohumil Hrabal Premier League Lays Thread - HERE - Bank Trebled

26-11-2009, 23:06	#2 (permalink)
Danny Cash God Punter Join Date: 13 Jan 2002 Location: Manchester Age: 35 Posts: 5,863	Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays Definitly looks promising - all the best with this one mate

27-11-2009, 01:52	#3 (permalink)
madnesstiger Legendary Punter Join Date: 14 Sep 2006 Location: Mansfield, UK Age: 28 Posts: 1,317	Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays Looks interesting 'Ebor' Good Luck!!!!! __________________ Author of "100% Madness" & "Madness Daily" Series

27-11-2009, 18:52	#5 (permalink)
preston2009 Banned Join Date: 24 Nov 2009 Posts: 37	Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays some tough matches un the league this week i can see a few bein draws stoke-blackburn bolton-fulham burnley-west ham tottenham-villa arsenal-chelsea liverpool-everton birmingham-wolves just did a random check a quid accy on that is 5003.24 hmm might stick a quid on

30-11-2009, 01:06	#9 (permalink)
preston2009 Banned Join Date: 24 Nov 2009 Posts: 37	Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays no mate i backed out at the end wish i had off done unlucky on the two matches today

16-12-2009, 22:21	#19 (permalink)
Jesse Dedicated Punter Join Date: 31 Mar 2009 Posts: 232	Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays Nice job Last edited by Jesse; 16-12-2009 at 22:21.

16-12-2009, 22:43	#20 (permalink)
Ebor Historic Pub Inspector Join Date: 04 Mar 2006 Location: O'er yonder Age: 29 Posts: 6,746 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Ebor's Premier League Lays Thanks mate, Long may it continue. __________________ "To spend our days betting on three-legged horses with beautiful names" -- Bohumil Hrabal Premier League Lays Thread - HERE - Bank Trebled

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