computer says 'yes'

[aliando]

trialled something a while back with reasonable results and have now got a further version updated - basically it goes along the lines of rating each match and then giving a figure to represent the match outcome. I'll use this outcome to place bets where there is/appears to be value.

I'll be using real money but only small amounts.

I believe that this system should produce better results later in the season than the start, but I'll be using the mexican, argentinian and russian leagues as testers for other leagues through the summer (more may be added depending upon time constraints, as i've got other things that i'm supposed to be getting on with ). I'm hoping to have the english and welsh leagues updated with this seasons data soon, but will continue with what i've got for now.

Starting Bank = 200pts

[staffy]

Good Luck mate.

[aliando]

cheers staffy



first bets...

mexican league
queretero v guadalajara
draw @ 3.25
away @ 3.30
0.5pts on both with bet365

atlante v UNAM
home @ 2.26
draw @ 3.30
0.5pts on both with betfair

[aliando]

welsh league

haverfordwest v welshpool
draw @ 9/4
away @ 23/20
0.5pts on both with sporting odds *better odds available*

[aliando]

english conference
st albans v kidderminster
away @ 11/8 with bet365
draw @ 3.65 with betfair
0.5pts on both

[kevsul]

good luck with this Ali. be watching with intrest mate.

and occasionally backing so no pressure

[aliando]

Originally Posted by kevsul

good luck with this Ali. be watching with intrest mate.

and occasionally backing so no pressure

yeah, no pressure at all then


- for both of us mate

[aliando]

Originally Posted by aliando

welsh league

haverfordwest v welshpool
draw @ 9/4
away @ 23/20
0.5pts on both with sporting odds *better odds available*

welshpool win 1-0
profit of 0.08pts

[aliando]

Originally Posted by aliando

english conference
st albans v kidderminster
away @ 11/8 with bet365
draw @ 3.65 with betfair
0.5pts on both

finishes 1-1
profit of 0.73pts

[aliando]

may start to change the staking around a little, so that if i win, its more than 0.08pts - will aim for equal returns, but at least the st albans game balanced it out!

[aliando]

Originally Posted by aliando

mexican league
queretero v guadalajara
draw @ 3.25
away @ 3.30
0.5pts on both with bet365

finshes 2-2 - profit of 65pts

[friskyfitz]

Originally Posted by aliando

finshes 2-2 - profit of 65pts

Yeah a bigger profit alright

Think you missed a decimal point

[Hands Solo]

Originally Posted by aliando

may start to change the staking around a little, so that if i win, its more than 0.08pts - will aim for equal returns, but at least the st albans game balanced it out!

Given what it seems you are doing, wouldn't it just be easier to lay the home team for a fixed backer's stake?

[aliando]

Originally Posted by friskyfitz

Yeah a bigger profit alright

Think you missed a decimal point

yeah, thats 0.65pts

[aliando]

Originally Posted by Crouch Potato

Given what it seems you are doing, wouldn't it just be easier to lay the home team for a fixed backer's stake?

i have thought about this - not all bets will be on the home/draw or away/draw - some bets will be 1pt on the straight win. If there is enough liquidity in the lay on betfair, and it returns more points post-commission, i will use that

[aliando]

Originally Posted by aliando

atlante v UNAM
home @ 2.26
draw @ 3.30
0.5pts on both with betfair

finishes 1-1 returning a profit of 0.59




Start bank - 200pts
No. of Bets - 4
No. Of winning bets - 4
Strike Rate - 100%
Profit/loss - +2.05
Current Balance - 202.05pts

[Galronix]

Originally Posted by aliando

finishes 1-1 returning a profit of 0.59




Start bank - 200pts
No. of Bets - 4
No. Of winning bets - 4
Strike Rate - 100%
Profit/loss - +2.05
Current Balance - 202.05pts

Strike Rate - 100%

Cracking stuff mate.

[aliando]

cheers Gal - cant see it staying that way for too long, but as long as it remains in profit....

[kevsul]

Keep it going ali.


Like I said no pressure..

Excellent so far mate.