'Bank Account' Theory

[FleetFanatic]

I was reading somewhere that if you put £100 a month and get 10% compounded interest,
that after 20 years, the £24000 paid in would be worth £76000.

This got me thinking, if we treated a bookmakers account like a bank account and aimed for say 15% interest every 30 days, and paid in an extra £100 every 30 days, the first year would look something like this:

MONTH	MONEY IN BANK INCLUDING DEPOSIT FOR MONTH	15% OF BANK	DAILY RATE (15% OF BANK DIVIDED BY 30) – TO NEAREST 10p	NEW BANK AFTER 30 DAYS
JAN	100	15	0.50	115
FEB	215	32.25	1.10	248
MAR	348	25.20	1.80	402
APR	502	75.30	2.60	580
MAY	680	102	3.40	782
JUNE	882	132.30	4.50	1017
JULY	1117	167.55	5.60	1285
AUG	1385	207.75	7	1595
SEPT	1695	254.25	8.50	1950
OCT	2050	307.50	10.30	2359
NOV	2459	368.85	12.30	2828
DEC	2928	439.20	14.70	3369

I've put months but it would, in fact, be 30 day periods.
1200 deposited, with the aim of building up to 3369 with 12 months.

What are everybody's ideas on this???
What would be the best way to win 'the daily aim'???
Stop at a winner fav's on horses? Football?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

I dont know about the best way of making your profit but, in terms of LONG term projects, I was once thinking of something similiar.

If you started with £500 and made 2% of your starting bank every week(£10) (on average) in a year you'd double your bank.(50 x 2% being 100%)

This would give you:
Year 1 = £1000
Year 2 = £2000
Year 3 = £4000
Year 4 = £8000
Year 5 = £16,000
Year 6 = £32,000
Year 7 = £64,000
Year 8 = £128,000
Year 9 = £256,000
Year 10 = £512,000

It would take great discipline as its such a slow process but the target of 2% profit a week(half your aim), should be achievable.
Im only 25(26 soon ) and Id be more than happy at the thought of having £500,000 in the bank by the time I was 36.

I think the key word with any slow long term projects is DISCIPLINE, its all too easy looking to speed it up, especially in the early stages when profits seem small, by picking out bets that are maybe not right.

Good luck with anything you decide to go with.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Do you need to make a daily aim??

Rather than looking at making 50p a day it may be better at looking at making £15 a month or £3.25 a week. The problem I see with setting targets over a small period of time is the temptation to chase. If your first bet loses you'll find yourself chasing , looking for bets that day, just to make a profit of 50p. If you set the target as monthly you know you've got all month to find a bet to make up the loss.

At £3.25 a week you could go for £10 a week on a 1/3 shot in the footy each weekend. Back 1 goal or more @ 1.1 for £30 5 times during the month( really starting to love that bet). Five winers would give you your 15% and thats without rolling the profits on.

[pinhofap]

I agre that your idea of a staking plan is good, it is not new, but the problem remains always the same: you need to find value bets.
If you could make 1% profit every day and adjusted stakes every day, you bank would grow 3600% in a year. Still, making a consistent profit of 1% each day is very very hard.
As for backing 1/3 favourites on football, what about when you lose? You will take a long time to recover, because you have invested a lot to win your target. If backing 25/1 horses gave you more value, this would be a better idea, it's not about the odds (you don't win more the shorter they are...), it's about winning in the long run.
The main issue is finding bets that pay off long term, I thinking stopping at a loser is not a good idea in anything because it's just mathematically incorrect, and anyone trying it will ALWAYS lose in the long run.
It all comes down to finding value and then studying your results and adjusting your staking plan to maximize profits. Your idea of compound interest is a good way to boost profits, but you need to calculate risk, because you are always on the edge of losing your whole bank if you get greedy and increase your risk level too much.
I hope some of this helps and I don't want to sound too negative, but I have gone down this road before on another thread, and after 1 month of good profits, the positive trend stopped, and since my stakes were higher, I lost my profits much faster. Remember that.

Apart from that it is a good idea, and I wish you good luck.

Pinho

[FleetFanatic]

I'm wouldn't back 1/3 favourites on the football.

Everybody knows the odds have to be better than 1/2 for me or no bet!

[FleetFanatic]

Originally Posted by WorkingForTheEnemy

Do you need to make a daily aim??

Rather than looking at making 50p a day it may be better at looking at making £15 a month or £3.25 a week. The problem I see with setting targets over a small period of time is the temptation to chase. If your first bet loses you'll find yourself chasing , looking for bets that day, just to make a profit of 50p. If you set the target as monthly you know you've got all month to find a bet to make up the loss.

At £3.25 a week you could go for £10 a week on a 1/3 shot in the footy each weekend. Back 1 goal or more @ 1.1 for £30 5 times during the month( really starting to love that bet). Five winers would give you your 15% and thats without rolling the profits on.

Some excellent ideas there!

Btw, I was going to continue the grid into further years but I thought I would get some opinions first.

Even money shots - if you lose chasing 50p, the next days target would be 50p + 50p (2 days target) plus 50p lost stake = £1.50 - next bet would be £1.50.
A second losing day = £3 bet on the 3rd day
A third losing day = £5 bet on the 4th day

Would have to be a shocking run not to find 1 winner a week from 7 bets, which is surely all it would need?

[Kanga]

Hi FF,

Hope this table helps based on 600-650 sequence of bets.

Based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

Strike Rate (%)	Anticipation of Sequences
	Expected (75% chance)	50:50 (50% chance)	Unlikely (25% chance)	V. Unlikely (<1% chance)
40	10	12	14	20
41	9	12	13	20
42	9	11	13	19
43	9	11	13	19
44	9	11	12	18
45	8	11	12	18
46	8	10	12	17
47	8	10	11	17
48	8	10	11	16
49	8	10	11	16
50	7	9	11	15
51	7	9	10	15
52	7	9	10	15
53	7	9	10	14
54	7	8	10	14
55	6	8	9	14
56	6	8	9	13
57	6	8	9	13
58	6	8	9	13
59	6	8	9	12
60	6	7	8	12