Automated in-play laying - discuss

[happygooner]

Had an idea the other night which I decided to test out using very low stakes today and initial results were rather positive.

I tried this out in every race today so it was totally random and took minutes to set up.

First thing I did was to lay the favourite pre-race for whatever price was available. I then placed unmatched lays on the rest of the field at the same price as the favourite but made sure to tick the keep in-play box keeping the stake/liability the same for all horses.

After that it's just case of getting as many matched as possible in order to gurantee a profit.

In all of today's races there were only about 2 where not one horse came under or touched upon the initial price of the favourite.

There were 2 races where I managed to match 7 horses. 1 of these races was quite profitable and the other at least managed a small profit.

There was 1 race where my initial stake profited by 1.5x and there was 1 race where it doubled.

The remaining races either provided small/average profit or gave a small loss.

Whether this is likely to continue tomorrow remains to be seen but I'll definitely be giving it another go.

Not really the type of thing I can post as it's all in-play but thought others may be interested and also offer up some opinions on whether this day was just a fluke

[aliando]

Good luck HG!

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by aliando

Good luck HG!

Cheers aliando, any opinion on the longterm viability of such a system?

[Datapunter]

If you post the intended race beforehand,
then post whatever time permits during,
provide a screenshot of the result,
you should be fine.

When you've done a few individual races so people really get it,
then a screenshot of the result of the day can cover multiple races.

Good luck,

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by Datapunter

If you post the intended race beforehand,
then post whatever time permits during,
provide a screenshot of the result,
you should be fine.

When you've done a few individual races so people really get it,
then a screenshot of the result of the day can cover multiple races.

Good luck,

Posting screenshots of each race would be nigh on impossible as I will be at work all day and plan to set this up over my lunch break. If I specify now that it will be all races and post a screenshot of my statement in the evening will this be sufficient?

Also, what are your thoughts on such a simple system working in the long term?

[happygooner]

I can certainly post the favourite lay beforehand as that is all done prior to the race.

[aliando]

you could always pm a screen shot to a mod of the profit/loss sheet to show proof of bets made/matched.


no idea on long term viability but will be interesting to see how you do...

[happygooner]

Ok, I'll see what I can do

[Datapunter]

As you're not posting each bet before the even you need an alternative way of proving that what you post it true. Screenshots are an acceptable method.

Post some screenshot sufficient for people to see exactly what it is you do.

Then post the intended race and fav, and afterwards the result.
No need for screenshots on every one. You can just post intention and result for 20, 30, 40 races and so on.

At some point a mod WILL ask for a screenshot on 2 or 3 randomly picked races. As long as your willing to provide those you're fine

[Datapunter]

As to the strategy,
i've never really looked at any data to be able to say anything meaningful either way.

Can only wish you luck

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by happygooner

Also, what are your thoughts on such a simple system working in the long term?

I hate being a wet blanket, but I have to say I'm sceptical.

When I see a system like this, where you make several individual bets on one event, hoping to make an overall profit, the first question I ask myself is "Which of the individual bets is expected to be profitable?"

Because unless at least one of the individual bets has an expected profit (before commission, at least), then the whole collection of bets won't have an expected profit (the expected profit/loss of the whole collection of bets is just the sum of the expected profits/losses of the individual bets).

So if your system is going to be profitable in the long run, then at least one of the following systems will be profitable (before commission):

(a) Lay the favourite.

(b) Pick a random horse other than the favourite, place an unmatched lay bet on it at the same price as the favourite, and leave it to run in-play.

In fact, you need more. If some of the individual bets have an expected profit, and some have an expected loss, then the profitable ones need to show enough profit to make up for the unprofitable ones, and also enough to cover the commission.

When you split things up into the individual bets like that, it just seems very unlikely (to me at least) that any of them are likely to be profitable in the long run without being more selective.

Though I'd be delighted if you proved me wrong.

[ScottyXS]

Good luck Richy mate
Hope things go well for ya on this

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by slapdash

I hate being a wet blanket, but I have to say I'm sceptical.

When I see a system like this, where you make several individual bets on one event, hoping to make an overall profit, the first question I ask myself is "Which of the individual bets is expected to be profitable?"

Because unless at least one of the individual bets has an expected profit (before commission, at least), then the whole collection of bets won't have an expected profit (the expected profit/loss of the whole collection of bets is just the sum of the expected profits/losses of the individual bets).

So if your system is going to be profitable in the long run, then at least one of the following systems will be profitable (before commission):

(a) Lay the favourite.

(b) Pick a random horse other than the favourite, place an unmatched lay bet on it at the same price as the favourite, and leave it to run in-play.

In fact, you need more. If some of the individual bets have an expected profit, and some have an expected loss, then the profitable ones need to show enough profit to make up for the unprofitable ones, and also enough to cover the commission.

When you split things up into the individual bets like that, it just seems very unlikely (to me at least) that any of them are likely to be profitable in the long run without being more selective.

Though I'd be delighted if you proved me wrong.

Cheers Slapdash, fingers crossed!

Must say though that I'm not relying on the favourite losing or winning, just that they are challenged enough to give as many horses as possible a fair crack of the whip.

So many times a favourite will end up winning but after fighting for it all the way it seems. And for the most part there seem to be at least 3 horses in the running at some stage meaning that however temporary, large priced starters fall under the lay price set prior to the off, before drifting out again.

[happygooner]

If I was laying all the horses at or close to their starting price then all I could hope for would be to break even or take a small loss. As I'm actually just trying to match every horse for the same price that the favourite went off it should surely be a different kettle of fish alltogether.

The only time a full loss can occur is when a favourite dominates from start to finish. Whereas for a profit to be made, no matter how small, I just need to match as many horses as the I paid on the favourite. So 2/1 horse and I need to match 2 more for break even and 3 for a nice profit.

[mediamonkey]

Interesting approach - I often lay the field in-running, but usually after I've traded before the off to give a small profit say three or four quid on every runner.

What I then do is lay every horse at, say, evens for the amount I am green on the field. Worst case scenario - it's not a close race and only the winner is matched at evens or lower. Result - no profit no loss. Best scenario is a close race, flip-flopping leaders and maybe three or four horses trade at evens - result, three or four times my stake won.

Sometimes I vary it and, say, lay the field at 1.1 for 5 times the all-green figure. Less chance of collecting, but if I don't then I only lose half the green, and if there's a tight finish I could win bigger.

I like the sound of your approach though, as it's systematic.

(On a different note, I'm pretty sure that leaving an in-running lay of both sides at 1.5 in WTA tennis matches would win a decent sum over the season!)

[happygooner]

Attached is a screenprint of the 14:10 in which I matched 7 horses all at 2.64

Hopefully this just gives some idea of what I'm talking about.

[SteveO]

Gooner are you going to be selective in the races that you select. For instance in 5f - 7f sprints (handicaps even better) there tend to be blanket finishes and many horses will get matched at low prices.

Looks very promising though, Good Luck.

[happygooner]

Thanks, the most successful races today were actually the longer races where so much could happen before the end.

For now I think I'll just track them all.

Appeals to my nature of wanting to bet on every race too haha!!

[happygooner]

Let's look at today then...

[Hodgey]

Another interesting approach mate.

Good luck with it - will be interesting to see how it pans out.