Attempting to highlight value the easy way - The Punters Lounge

happygooner · 17-12-2007, 23:04

I've just found a website which highlights their own forecasts against what is currently available elsewhere. Feel this must be worth keeping track on.

Most bets will be asian handicap with the occassional game on the straight win. This will ordinarily be when no odds for the handicap at betfair.

Better the value (difference between odds I get and what this website says they should be, after 5% commission, the more i'll be staking. Ok let's begin.

4*Dumbarton straight win - forecast 1.8 - odds taken 2.44 (difference of 57)
3*Arsenal 0 asian handicap - forecast 1.71 - odds taken 1.93 (difference of 17)
2*Man City -0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.88 - odds taken 2.10 (difference of 16)

happygooner · 17-12-2007, 23:07

ALL PAPER BETS FOR NOW!!!

aliando · 17-12-2007, 23:13

good luck mate!

happygooner · 17-12-2007, 23:31

Cheers aliando

Figured I may as well start looking at something else so that in the longrun i'm not relying on just one source of info.

happygooner · 18-12-2007, 22:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

I've just found a website which highlights their own forecasts against what is currently available elsewhere. Feel this must be worth keeping track on.

Most bets will be asian handicap with the occassional game on the straight win. This will ordinarily be when no odds for the handicap at betfair.

Better the value (difference between odds I get and what this website says they should be, after 5% commission, the more i'll be staking. Ok let's begin.

4*Dumbarton straight win - forecast 1.8 - odds taken 2.44 (difference of 57)+5.47
3*Arsenal 0 asian handicap - forecast 1.71 - odds taken 1.93 (difference of 17)push
2*Man City -0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.88 - odds taken 2.10 (difference of 16)-2.00

ALL PAPER BETS FOR NOW

A good enough start...

+3.47 after 3 bets

happygooner · 18-12-2007, 23:21

3*Chelsea straight win - forecast 1.8 - odds taken 2.20 (difference of 27)

ALL PAPER BETS FOR NOW

happygooner · 19-12-2007, 21:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

3*Chelsea straight win - forecast 1.8 - odds taken 2.20 (difference of 27)+3.42

ALL PAPER BETS FOR NOW

+6.89 after 4 bets.

Just as well really seeing as my other little venture is dieing on it's arse!

aliando · 19-12-2007, 21:45

havent had a chance to look at the other bets, just following whats happening at the moment, but again, this is showing good potential!

happygooner · 19-12-2007, 21:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by aliando

havent had a chance to look at the other bets, just following whats happening at the moment, but again, this is showing good potential!

Ah don't you worry it'll all f*ck up good and proper soon haha!

aliando · 19-12-2007, 21:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

Ah don't you worry it'll all f*ck up good and proper soon haha!

head up mate - i know its dissapointing when you think you've cracked it only to find its a flse promise, but the winners are there somewhere....

happygooner · 20-12-2007, 17:36

Well I best post this before I get too pissed!

2*Amadora +1.5@1.88 - forecast 1.67 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 21)

For some reason Betfair are offering up to +0.25 only

so this with Bet365 hence no commission charges.

happygooner · 21-12-2007, 14:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

Well I best post this before I get too pissed!

2*Amadora +1.5@1.88 - forecast 1.67 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 21)

For some reason Betfair are offering up to +0.25 only

so this with Bet365 hence no commission charges.

+4.89 after 5 bets (14.00 staked - 18.89 returned)

happygooner · 21-12-2007, 14:27

2*Westerlo +0.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.68 - odds taken 1.89 (difference of 16 after commission)
1*De Graafschap +0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.84 - odds taken 2.01 (difference of 12 after commission)

happygooner · 21-12-2007, 15:43

De Graafschap has drifted adding to the value. On new odds this would have qualified as 2* so a further unit added on new/updated odds.

1*De Graafschap +0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.84 - odds taken 2.12 (difference of 17 after commission)

happygooner · 21-12-2007, 15:45

the difference above is more than 17 (should be 22 so makes no odds!). I have my Christmas error strewn confused and befuddled hat on haha!!

happygooner · 21-12-2007, 21:49

Quote:
Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

2*Westerlo +0.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.68 - odds taken 1.89 (difference of 16 after commission) - postponed
1*De Graafschap +0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.84 - odds taken 2.01 (difference of 12 after commission)+.96

De Graafschap has drifted adding to the value. On new odds this would have qualified as 2* so a further unit added on new/updated odds.

1*De Graafschap +0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.84 - odds taken 2.12 (difference of 22 after commission)+1.06

One game postponed (feckin weather no doubt!) and one winner

+2.02 on the day

+6.91 after 6 bets (16.00 staked - not counting postponed games - 22.91 returned)

happygooner · 22-12-2007, 01:00

Well here comes the acid test of whether something is gonna work out. A full Saturday card of numerous games showing supposed value!

5*Dumbarton straight win - forecast 2.28 - odds taken 2.84 (difference of 47 after commission)
5*Forfar straight win – forecast 2.36 - odds taken 2.94 (difference of 48 after commission)
4*Pompey +1 asian handicap – forecast 1.59 - odds taken 2.00 (difference of 36 after commission)
3*Arbroath straight win – forecast 1.53 - odds taken 1.87 (difference of 29 after commission)
2*Fulham straight win – forecast 2.05 - odds taken 2.28 (difference of 16 after commission)
2*Sheff Utd +0.25 asian handicap – forecast 1.66 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 17 after commission)
2*Stoke 0 asian handicap – forecast 1.73 - odds taken 1.99 (difference of 21 after commission)
2*Wolves straight win – forecast 1.77 - odds taken 2.04 (difference of 22 after commission)
2*Crewe 0 asian handicap - forecast 1.83 - odds taken 2.09 (difference of 20 after commission)
2*Rotherham –0.75 asian handicap - forecast 1.65 - odds taken 1.94 (difference of 24 after commission)
2*Kilmarnock 0 asian handicap – forecast 1.83 - odds taken 2.05 (difference of 16 after commission)
1*Bolton straight win - forecast 1.86 - odds taken 2.02 (difference of 11 after commission)
1*Charlton straight win – forecast 1.78 - odds taken 1.96 (difference of 13 after commission)
1*Sheff Wed +0.25 asian handicap – forecast 1.66 - odds taken 1.84 (difference of 14 after commission)
1*Bradford +0.75 asian handicap – forecast 1.79 - odds taken 1.97 (difference of 13 after commission)
1*Inverness +0.5 asian handicap – forecast 1.85 - odds taken 2.01 (difference of 11 after commission)
1*Falkirk +0.75 asian handicap – forecast 1.69 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 14 after commission)

happygooner · 22-12-2007, 01:03

And on to the European card which should be nowhere near as big

3*Levadiakos +1.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.64 - odds taken 1.95 (difference of 26 after commission)
3*Nancy +0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.70 - odds taken 2.09 difference of 33 after commission)
2*Parma +0.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.64 - odds taken 1.85 (difference of 16 after commission)

there will most probably be a few more European games from around 18.00 hours GMT but i'll post those tomorrow. Knackered now haha!

PLEASE NOTE: THESE ARE STILL ONLY PAPERBETS AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THIS HAS BEEN THOROUGHLY RESEARCHED

happygooner · 22-12-2007, 17:48

1*Naval -0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.88 - odds taken 2.06 (difference of 12 after commission)
2*Belenenses +0.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.57 - odds taken (difference of 24 after commission)
3*Pacos Ferreira +1.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.77 - odds taken 2.11 (difference of 28 after commission)
2*Germinal Beerschott -0.75 asian handicap - forecast 1.82 - odds taken 2.07 difference of 19 after commission)
3*Sampdoria +1 asian handicap - 2.02 - odds taken 2.37 - (difference of 28 after commission)
2*Valencia +0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.86 - odds taken 2.11 (difference of 19 after commission)
6*Racing Santander +0.75 asian handicap - forecast 1.60 - odds taken 2.22 (difference of 56 after commission)

happygooner · 22-12-2007, 23:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by happygooner

Well here comes the acid test of whether something is gonna work out. A full Saturday card of numerous games showing supposed value!

5*Dumbarton straight win - forecast 2.28 - odds taken 2.84 (difference of 47 after commission)-5.00
5*Forfar straight win – forecast 2.36 - odds taken 2.94 (difference of 48 after commission)postponed
4*Pompey +1 asian handicap – forecast 1.59 - odds taken 2.00 (difference of 36 after commission)-4.00
3*Arbroath straight win – forecast 1.53 - odds taken 1.87 (difference of 29 after commission)postponed
2*Fulham straight win – forecast 2.05 - odds taken 2.28 (difference of 16 after commission)-2.00
2*Sheff Utd +0.25 asian handicap – forecast 1.66 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 17 after commission)-2.00
2*Stoke 0 asian handicap – forecast 1.73 - odds taken 1.99 (difference of 21 after commission)+1.88
2*Wolves straight win – forecast 1.77 - odds taken 2.04 (difference of 22 after commission)-2.00
2*Crewe 0 asian handicap - forecast 1.83 - odds taken 2.09 (difference of 20 after commission)-2.00
2*Rotherham –0.75 asian handicap - forecast 1.65 - odds taken 1.94 (difference of 24 after commission)+1.78
2*Kilmarnock 0 asian handicap – forecast 1.83 - odds taken 2.05 (difference of 16 after commission)push
1*Bolton straight win - forecast 1.86 - odds taken 2.02 (difference of 11 after commission)+.97
1*Charlton straight win – forecast 1.78 - odds taken 1.96 (difference of 13 after commission)push
1*Sheff Wed +0.25 asian handicap – forecast 1.66 - odds taken 1.84 (difference of 14 after commission)-1.00
1*Bradford +0.75 asian handicap – forecast 1.79 - odds taken 1.97 (difference of 13 after commission)-0.50
1*Inverness +0.5 asian handicap – forecast 1.85 - odds taken 2.01 (difference of 11 after commission)+0.96
1*Falkirk +0.75 asian handicap – forecast 1.69 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 14 after commission)
+1.67

-11.24

17-12-2007, 23:04	#1 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Attempting to highlight value the easy way I've just found a website which highlights their own forecasts against what is currently available elsewhere. Feel this must be worth keeping track on. Most bets will be asian handicap with the occassional game on the straight win. This will ordinarily be when no odds for the handicap at betfair. Better the value (difference between odds I get and what this website says they should be, after 5% commission, the more i'll be staking. Ok let's begin. *4Dumbarton straight win - forecast 1.8 - odds taken 2.44 (difference of 57) 3Arsenal 0 asian handicap* - forecast 1.71 - odds taken 1.93 (difference of 17) *2Man City -0.25 asian handicap** - forecast 1.88 - odds taken 2.10 (difference of 16)

17-12-2007, 23:07	#2 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way ALL PAPER BETS FOR NOW!!!

17-12-2007, 23:31	#4 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way Cheers aliando Figured I may as well start looking at something else so that in the longrun i'm not relying on just one source of info.

18-12-2007, 23:21	#6 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way *3Chelsea straight win** - forecast 1.8 - odds taken 2.20 (difference of 27) ALL PAPER BETS FOR NOW

20-12-2007, 17:36	#11 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way Well I best post this before I get too pissed! *2Amadora +1.5@1.88** - forecast 1.67 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 21) For some reason Betfair are offering up to +0.25 only so this with Bet365 hence no commission charges.

21-12-2007, 14:27	#13 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way *2Westerlo +0.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.68 - odds taken 1.89 (difference of 16 after commission) 1De Graafschap +0.25 asian handicap* - forecast 1.84 - odds taken 2.01 (difference of 12 after commission)

21-12-2007, 15:43	#14 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way De Graafschap has drifted adding to the value. On new odds this would have qualified as 2* so a further unit added on new/updated odds. *1De Graafschap +0.25 asian handicap** - forecast 1.84 - odds taken 2.12 (difference of 17 after commission)

21-12-2007, 15:45	#15 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way the difference above is more than 17 (should be 22 so makes no odds!). I have my Christmas error strewn confused and befuddled hat on haha!!

22-12-2007, 01:00	#17 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way Well here comes the acid test of whether something is gonna work out. A full Saturday card of numerous games showing supposed value! *5Dumbarton straight win - forecast 2.28 - odds taken 2.84 (difference of 47 after commission) 5Forfar straight win* – forecast 2.36 - odds taken 2.94 (difference of 48 after commission) *4Pompey +1 asian handicap – forecast 1.59 - odds taken 2.00 (difference of 36 after commission) 3Arbroath straight win* – forecast 1.53 - odds taken 1.87 (difference of 29 after commission) *2Fulham straight win – forecast 2.05 - odds taken 2.28 (difference of 16 after commission) 2Sheff Utd +0.25 asian handicap* – forecast 1.66 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 17 after commission) *2Stoke 0 asian handicap – forecast 1.73 - odds taken 1.99 (difference of 21 after commission) 2Wolves straight win* – forecast 1.77 - odds taken 2.04 (difference of 22 after commission) *2Crewe 0 asian handicap - forecast 1.83 - odds taken 2.09 (difference of 20 after commission) 2Rotherham –0.75 asian handicap* - forecast 1.65 - odds taken 1.94 (difference of 24 after commission) *2Kilmarnock 0 asian handicap – forecast 1.83 - odds taken 2.05 (difference of 16 after commission) 1Bolton straight win* - forecast 1.86 - odds taken 2.02 (difference of 11 after commission) *1Charlton straight win – forecast 1.78 - odds taken 1.96 (difference of 13 after commission) 1Sheff Wed +0.25 asian handicap* – forecast 1.66 - odds taken 1.84 (difference of 14 after commission) *1Bradford +0.75 asian handicap – forecast 1.79 - odds taken 1.97 (difference of 13 after commission) 1Inverness +0.5 asian handicap* – forecast 1.85 - odds taken 2.01 (difference of 11 after commission) *1Falkirk +0.75 asian handicap** – forecast 1.69 - odds taken 1.88 (difference of 14 after commission)

22-12-2007, 01:03	#18 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way And on to the European card which should be nowhere near as big *3Levadiakos +1.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.64 - odds taken 1.95 (difference of 26 after commission) 3Nancy +0.25 asian handicap* - forecast 1.70 - odds taken 2.09 difference of 33 after commission) *2Parma +0.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.64 - odds taken 1.85 (difference of 16 after commission) there will most probably be a few more European games from around 18.00 hours GMT but i'll post those tomorrow. Knackered now haha! PLEASE NOTE: THESE ARE STILL ONLY PAPERBETS AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THIS HAS BEEN THOROUGHLY RESEARCHED**

22-12-2007, 17:48	#19 (permalink)
happygooner This time nxt yr Rodders! Join Date: 07 Oct 2006 Location: Oxfordshire Age: 30 Posts: 3,850	Re: Attempting to highlight value the easy way *1Naval -0.25 asian handicap - forecast 1.88 - odds taken 2.06 (difference of 12 after commission) 2Belenenses +0.5 asian handicap* - forecast 1.57 - odds taken (difference of 24 after commission) *3Pacos Ferreira +1.5 asian handicap - forecast 1.77 - odds taken 2.11 (difference of 28 after commission) 2Germinal Beerschott -0.75 asian handicap* - forecast 1.82 - odds taken 2.07 difference of 19 after commission) *3Sampdoria +1 asian handicap - 2.02 - odds taken 2.37 - (difference of 28 after commission) 2Valencia +0.25 asian handicap* - forecast 1.86 - odds taken 2.11 (difference of 19 after commission) *6Racing Santander +0.75 asian handicap** - forecast 1.60 - odds taken 2.22 (difference of 56 after commission)

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