Aliando's Weekend 5

[aliando]

This is a kind of paper trial system (ie minimum stakes) which I will look at 2 things with;

1) staking plan
this term, i intend to play around with different staking patterns and will analyse close-season to establish the better staking plans for me. For this system, I will employ a split of the total bank into 5 sections - each bet will be to the nearest lowest full point and I will bet the bank each weekend over the 5 bets.

2) asian handicaps/draw no bet
there are various ways of placing the same bet, just under a different title and can sometimes lead to a better price. The types of bet will vary in accordance to the bets available.

Games will be from England and Scotland leagues for now (may add in the Welsh league at some point) and bets are from a simple analysis of teams and form.

I will pick the 5 most suitable games and split the bank between them. I have no particular aim for my odds, but hope to have a good strike rate.

I will start with a bank of 100 points and aim to reach 250 points first off. Obviously, if I hit that bad weekend of 5 losers, the system dies. Its likely to be a volatile ride, so hang on to your hats folks!

[aliando]

i have chosen a shite of a weekend to start this as there is little that really jumps out at me. I did have a list of around 15 teams to look at but have found too many black marks. There are five teams I dont expect to lose though.

Weekend 1 - bet 1: Cardiff City v Birmingham: Birmingham to win -0 AH - 2.11 @ Bet1128
Weekend 1 - bet 2: Accrington Stanley v Rochdale: Accrington Stanley to win, draw no bet - 1.36 @ bet365
Weekend 1 - bet 3: Tamworh v Exeter: Exteter to win, draw no bet - 1.57 @ bet365
Weekend 1 - bet 4: Peterhead v Morton: Morton to win, draw no bet - 1.57@ Sporting Odds
Weekend 1 - bet 5: Elgin v East Fife: East Fife to win, draw no bet - 1.61 @ Sporting Odds

5 x 20 point bets = 100 points.

[aliando]

Not the greatest of starts but Birminghams defeat means the City go clear at the the top!

"Are you watching, are you watching, are you watching Bowles'n'Kevshat, are you watching Bowles'n'Kevshat?"


Weekend 1 - bet 1: Cardiff City v Birmingham: Birmingham to win -0 AH - 2.11 @ Bet1128 lost (-20 points)
Weekend 1 - bet 2: Accrington Stanley v Rochdale: Accrington Stanley to win, draw no bet - 1.36 @ bet365 push (returns 20 points)
Weekend 1 - bet 3: Tamworth v Exeter: Exteter to win, draw no bet - 1.57 @ bet365 lost (-20 points)
Weekend 1 - bet 4: Peterhead v Morton: Morton to win, draw no bet - 1.57@ Sporting Odds won (Returns 31.4 points)
Weekend 1 - bet 5: Elgin v East Fife: East Fife to win, draw no bet - 1.61 @ Sporting Odds won (returns 32.2 points)

Start Bank = 100 points
Current Bank = 83.6 points
Overall Profit/Loss = -16.4 points
Next betting bank = 5 x 16 points.

[aliando]

no play for me this weekend - hopefully back next weekend when the proper football returns

[davidmphill]

good luck on your return Ali.

[aliando]

Originally Posted by davidmphill

good luck on your return Ali.

cheers mate

a bit of a wander into the dark with this but can tweak it into a profit. There were a couple of games I could've played but want to practise better discipline also and wait until I get 5 that i believe are winners/very good value - i didnt want to just make the numbers up with 'possibles'.

[aliando]

round 2 then;

Weekend 2 - bet 1: Everton v Liverpool: away win, draw no bet - 1.50 vic chandler
Weekend 2 - bet 2: Ipswich v Southampton: away win +0 AH - 1.98 ladbrookes
Weekend 2 - bet 3: Notts County v Accrington Stanley: home win, draw no bet - 1.44 vic chandler
Weekend 2 - bet 4: Northwich v St Albans City: home win, draw no bet - 1.50 bet365
Weekend 2 - bet 5: Montrose v East Fife: away win, draw no bet - 1.57 sporting odds

16 points on all 5 bets

[aliando]

what a shite weekend all round with the results.

23 points returned from notts county and thats it!

Start Bank = 100 points
Current Bank = 26.6 points
Overall Profit/Loss = -73.4 points
Next betting bank = 5 x 5 points.

i'll continue with current bank and keep going for a bit. if it does bomb out, i will try the staking strategy with straight results, as its something i want to play around with.

[aliando]

Start Bank = 100 points
Current Bank = 26.6 points
Overall Profit/Loss = -73.4 points
Next betting bank = 5 x 5 points.

will plod on to fine tune this

round 3

Weekend 2 - bet 1: brentford v yeovil: brentford dnb - 1.75 with bet365
Weekend 2 - bet 2: motherwell v kilmarnock: kilmarnock +0 ah - 1.87 with stan james
Weekend 2 - bet 3: partick v ross county: partick dnb - 1.57 with sporting odds
Weekend 2 - bet 4: dundee v st johnstone: st johnstone dnb - 1.80 with sporting odds
Weekend 2 - bet 5: east fife v dumbarton: East fife dnb - 1.50 with sporting odds

5 points on each bet

[aliando]

Originally Posted by aliando

Start Bank = 100 points
Current Bank = 26.6 points
Overall Profit/Loss = -73.4 points
Next betting bank = 5 x 5 points.

will plod on to fine tune this

round 3

Weekend 2 - bet 1: brentford v yeovil: brentford dnb - 1.75 with bet365
Weekend 2 - bet 2: motherwell v kilmarnock: kilmarnock +0 ah - 1.87 with stan james
Weekend 2 - bet 3: partick v ross county: partick dnb - 1.57 with sporting odds
Weekend 2 - bet 4: dundee v st johnstone: st johnstone dnb - 1.80 with sporting odds
Weekend 2 - bet 5: east fife v dumbarton: East fife dnb - 1.50 with sporting odds

5 points on each bet

ho hum....

25 points placed, 20.4 points returned

Start Bank = 100 points
Current Bank = 22 points
Overall Profit/Loss = -78 points
Next betting bank = 5 x 4 points.

i'll continue to flog this to death - its not over until the bookies says "I dont accept the buttons off your shirt"

[davidmphill]

Blimey, you're going to run out of bank soon Ali!!
Suppose it'll make it even more sweeter when you start heading up and up.

[aliando]

Originally Posted by davidmphill

Blimey, you're going to run out of bank soon Ali!!
Suppose it'll make it even more sweeter when you start heading up and up.

nothing like optimism mate

this was more about the staking system than the picks and i think i've learnt everything i needed too - will continue for fun and try to re-establish the starting bank