Tour de France - starts 1st July

[Tulenos]

Winner

Best odds/All odds
Basso, I	2.1	2.25	2.25	2.1	2.25	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.34
Ullrich, J	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.75	3.5	3.55
Valverde, A	8.5	9	8.5	9	8	11	11	11	13
Vinokourov, A	8	10	10	7	9	13	15	10	17.5
Landis, F	11	15	11	15	13	15	15	15	18
Popovych, Y	21	29	26	21	21	26	34	29	34
Salvodelli, P	-	-	41	-	-	-	-	-	-
Evans, C	41	34	26	41	29	29	17	34	42
Leipheimer, L	21	41	41	41	41	26	13	26	55
Menchov, D	34	41	34	34	41	41	34	34	75
Danielson, T	51	-	34	-	-	-	-	-	-
Rubiera, J	-	-	-	-	51	-	-	-	-
Hincape, G	51	41	34	41	51	51	34	51	50
Rasmussen, M	34	41	41	34	51	34	51	51	70
Mayo, I	67	67	67	51	51	51	41	67	75
Mancebo, F	41	51	51	34	26	51	67	34	80
Kloden, A	41	67	41	34	34	67	51	67	120
Karpets, V	67	-	67	67	67	67	67	67	160
Azevedo, J	-	-	-	-	67	-	34	41	250
Botero, S	67	-	67	67	81	-	-	-	-
Gonzalez, A	81	-	67	-	67	-	-	-	-
Horner, C	-	-	-	-	-	81	-	-	-
Jaksche, J	-	81	51	-	-	-	-	-	-
Savoldelli, P	51	41	-	67	67	-	81	51	130
Gomez-Marchante, J	81	-	-	-	81	-	-	-	140
Cunego, D	21	34	41	21	51	67	81	67	210
Guerini, G	-	-	-	-	-	101	-	-	-
Moreau, C	101	101	101	-	101	67	51	101	240
Pereiro, O	51	67	67	51	51	67	101	67	240
Kashechkin, A	81	-	101	-	101	101	101	-	350
Zubeldia, H	81	67	67	67	67	81	101	-	400
Casar, S	-	101	-	-	-	-	-	126	-
Garate, J	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	126	-
Rogers, M	-	-	101	-	-	126	101	126	-
Contador, A	51	51	41	41	51	-	126	67	190
Beloki, J	67	81	67	67	67	126	67	-	240
Garzelli, S	151	-	151	-	151	-	-	-	-
Millar, D	-	-	151	-	-	-	-	-	580
Totschnig, G	-	-	101	-	-	-	151	-	620
Mazzoleni, E	151	101	-	-	151	-	-	-	1000
Sevilla, O	-	101	-	-	-	176	-	-	-
Julich, B	101	81	101	-	101	201	201	126	-
Simoni, G	67	-	81	-	67	-	201	-	-
Rujano, J	67	-	67	51	67	-	201	-	410
Di Luca, D	67	101	67	67	67	126	251	-	-
Sastre, C	101	81	101	-	-	201	251	126	540
Scanlon, M	-	-	301	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sinkewitz, P	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	350
Zabriskie, D	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	380
Each-way terms:	3 at 1/5	3 at 1/5	3 at 1/4		3 at 1/4	3 at 1/4

[Tulenos]

Ivan Basso may be impressive, but he ain't Armstrong and though he might well win the whole thing, the price only slightly above evens is at least layable. Even Armstong had his blips when he could be backed @ evs+ at tsome points during the tour. I can also see especially Valverde and Ullrich (if not also Vinokourov) getting close.

[Tulenos]

There are also Top 3 and Top 6 markets and a few other can be expected soon, but even the Top 3 and Top 6 ones haven't formed as yet and just some ridiculous prices are on offer on BF.

[davidmphill]

Not a great knowledge of this sport with Germanys Jan Ullrich comes into this with a chance. A previous winner of this tour in the 90's before Lance Armstrongs dominance and a recent winner of the Tour of Switzerland.

Jan Ullrich 5/10 @ 3.75 vcbet

[Pirata]

If nothing extraordinary happens, none shall defeat Ulrich on the TT stages. In the mountains, however, there are a few fellas that can give Jan a hell of a fight.

[davidmphill]

Originally Posted by Pirata

If nothing extraordinary happens, none shall defeat Ulrich on the TT stages. In the mountains, however, there are a few fellas that can give Jan a hell of a fight.

Cheers for you input Pirata.

[pageot]

Don't follow the sport any other time of year but the Tour is always a good contest. I am thinking of backing the Dane Michael Rasmussen @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes to be King of the Mountains. He won this last year when he seemed about the only rider interested in winning the jersey. Is there any reason why it wont be the same this year?

Also what do people think of the chances of the Brits this year? I notice Millar is 10/1 and Wiggins 25/1 to win the opening time trial - are these good prices?

[Cosmetic Bob]

Ullrichs lead over Basso in the 1st time trail on saturday will not be a big enough lead for him as Basso will simply destroy Ullrich in the mountain stages.
The big question is, even with a bit less climbs this year than in previous renewals, can Ullrich still latch onto Basso who is undoubtably the best climber at the moment, if he doesn't ,which IMO he won't, then the outcome of this tour is simple, Basso WILL WIN the Tour De France. He looked very impressive in the Giro D'Italia and he'll make sure he'll destroy Ullrich once it gets to the business stages in the big mountain stages and Basso was the only man that was able to live with Armstrong in the mountains the previous two years, Ullrich was left behind!.
I just cannot see anyone else getting involved, and another plus is that Basso comfortable beat Ullrich in the General Classification last year by 1 minute 41 seconds , and Ullrich is known for being a bit of a slow starter in the 1st mountain stages. I cannot see another outcome than Basso winning his 1st Tour De France. Basso just keeps improving in the Tour, last four finishes have been 11, 7, 3, 2
5/4 is fantastic value.

[Tulenos]

Valverde surviced the mountains alongside Basso and Armstrong and gained some valuable experience. Ullrich not too bad in the mountains. And it's also necessary to count the team tactics into the equation - don't forget the team virtually brought Armstrong so far up @ such a pace in the first real mountain stage, the other guys could only look - can't see such a big differenc ethis year as again Basso ain't Armstrong. As ever, I think it might be profitable to follow good sprinters in the first stages - anyone knows who the in-form guy is this year/won most of them in italy?

[Tulenos]

Hmm - looks like McEwan may be the one (Bettini, Schumacher?).

It's also noteworthy Armstrong didn't race in Giro d'Italia and it is generally believed it's at least very difficult to win two such demanding races - esp. as they are very near each other. But we'll see - the othe rcontenders were in italy too

[ridle]

Bombshell - Ullrich and Sevilla suspended - maybe even more to come (Basso???)

[Tulenos]

It's the impact of the dope scandal just before the off of the Tour - jeez

[stereoman]

JAYSUS!! Basso is out along with Ullrich and Sevilla. Ugh. Deos some kind of Rule 4 come in?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/othe...ng/5132320.stm

[Angeachorion]

Basso and Ulrich suspended or atleast that's what the news say. That rules out one of my favourites. The other one is Vinokourov whose team Astana-Würth was asked to withdraw. That's not good for the morale of the team, but hopefully it will improve when the race starts. In any other sport, I'd say this kind of situation could motivate you but the Tour is different. If such pressure continues, it could easily brake you. Anyway, I'm still not even sure if they will compete. Chaos rules at the moment.

Valverde is good but I think his time is yet to come. Two more years and he'll be the best. Although I admit, he has good chances to finish in the top three overall.

And finally my wildcard... Iban Mayo. He seems to be in good form and with a strong team like Euskaltel-Euskadi, I see him winning atleast one of the two stages in the Pyrenees. Can't wait to see the orange sea of fans cheering and encouraging them.

edit: Also, I think Mancebo and Beloki will be (or already are) suspended, too.

[pageot]

I had already backed Basso in the overall but fortunately Ladbrokes have refunded me my stake. It seems like a bit of a farce at the moment so I think I wont be having bets other than those I have already placed on this years tour. Lets hope the stance they are taking sorts the problem out for next year though.

BTW I notice Ladbrokes have now halved both Millar and Wiggins prices for todays time trial

[Ra1nmaker]

Well that put paid to that. I had a big explanation ready on why I thought a Lay of Ullrich for a top 3 finish was a worth a bet @ 1.55. Now I'm not even sure who’s left putting on the skin tight luminous lycra.

Thankfully, the 1^st real Time Trail and the mountains don’t start for a bit so the outright market is unlikely to move much over the 1^st week. Give’s a bit of time to have a look at the peleton and try to get a feel for who the real challengers are. My early thoughts are someone from the strong Discovery team, my preference would be Popovych, or the talented Candel Evans from Lotto.

As for today’s Prologue I just can’t see past David Zabriskie. He’s a prologue specialist winning it in 2004 and unfortunately falling last year while going well. Think that fall will spur him on and he’s a worthy favourite.

David Millar's 1^st competitive race on a return from a drugs ban. This flat 7km would have suited him but don’t think he would beat Zabriskie even if he was fully primed.

Bradley Wiggins is a top indoor 1km rider, but this is 7 km and there are real corners. His whole season is supposedly geared to this one stage! Interesting @13.5 but just don’t see it.

5 pts Zabriskie to win Prologue @ 2.16 Betfair