Snooker: World Championships

[Mullahoran]

Personally i don't see Williams taking the title this year.
That bottom half of the draw is very tough and will take alot of whoever reaches the final on that side.
If i was going to to try and predict the finalists i would go for Higgins against Doherty with Higgins taking the title but Doherty could just as easy go out in the first round where it will be a very close match v Hawkins.

[ZuluWarrior]

I've noticed that the winner of the world championship hasn't crashed out on the first round for 5 years (didn't go further back). Now I totally agree with Paul's reasoning ( ) but to play the advocate...

Murphy does have the right attitude, I saw something in the last couple of weeks (sorry for the vauge source) with a Murphy interview and while I don't think he is a world beater I do rate his attitude to this championship and I think I'd have to say that he'll beat Wattana, and if thats the case the draw opens up nicely for him. I can see Murphy having a good first week myself.

However, once we get down to real money, I find myself faultering. With such 'heavies' as Paul Ross and Kevshat Laying Murphys first round chances, I'd be taking a big fat NO BET!*

ZuluWarrior

* That's a lie, as this is the only match to complete on Saturday, I'm putting a couple of £ on Murphy, but low stakes here, perhaps just a bet to jinx him

[Paul Ross]

Originally Posted by Mullahoran

Personally i don't see Williams taking the title this year.
That bottom half of the draw is very tough and will take alot of whoever reaches the final on that side.
If i was going to to try and predict the finalists i would go for Higgins against Doherty with Higgins taking the title but Doherty could just as easy go out in the first round where it will be a very close match v Hawkins.

I agree he has a tough draw, but so do all the others in his half (obviously). He didn't have it particularly easy the year he first won it either.

I can't say I have ever been as confident about somebody winning the title as I am this year for a long time. I really do think Williams has so much more in the tank having had such a poor start to the season, and he fears nobody, in fact he'll love playing Ronnie or Higgins and it is between them 3 for the title imo.

[davidmphill]

Stevens has a nice draw and always seems to do well here in Sheffield. Has a good record and with the strength in the other half I fancy Stevens to have another good run this year.

Stevens 1pt each way @ 17 ladbrokes 1/2 odds 12

[Paul Ross]

Originally Posted by davidmphill

Stevens has a nice draw and always seems to do well here in Sheffield. Has a good record and with the strength in the other half I fancy Stevens to have another good run this year.

Stevens 1pt each way @ 17 ladbrokes 1/2 odds 12

I think he's damaged goods now Dave, I really do.

If you don't win the WC in your first 2 real attempts (semis/final), it get harder and harder and I think he could well go down the Jimmy route now.

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Paul Ross

I think he's damaged goods now Dave, I really do.

If you don't win the WC in your first 2 real attempts (semis/final), it get harder and harder and I think he could well go down the Jimmy route now.

His results would suggest he spends more time playing poker than snooker too! I still maintain that Swail will be a great handicap bet in that match.

[davidmphill]

Originally Posted by Paul Ross

I think he's damaged goods now Dave, I really do.

If you don't win the WC in your first 2 real attempts (semis/final), it get harder and harder and I think he could well go down the Jimmy route now.

Fair point Paul, I just believe he has a good draw and can go well.
Love to see Mark Williams win it again.

[ZuluWarrior]

Here's my selections for the 1st round, but first some picks that I'm not betting on due to the short odds:

Hendry to beat Bond
O'Sullivan to beat Harold
Higgins to beat Selby (this one might make an accumulator thought)

Select-a!

Now for the selections proper...

10pts - McManus v Fu - 1.73 @ TotalBet
McManus is not an on form player, but if you look at the season Alan is progressing further than Fu in every tornament this year bar the UK masters and Grand prix where he was knocked out at the same stage. McManus is being beeten by the likes of Higgins, Hendry and Milkins whereas Fu is bowing to oppositions like Drew Henry and Maguire. At odds l.73 @ totalbet, it's well worth a punt.

10pts - Doherty v Hawkins - 1.68 @ Pinnical
Now Hawkins is playing well at the moment, but Doherty's being consistant, this season Ken's won 1 title, 1 Semi, 1 Quarter and 3 2nd round exits. Compare that to Hawkins 2 Semis and a 2nd round exit. Hawkins has hade some luck this year with the draws, whereas Doherty is consistantly beating good opposition only being beaten by Higgins, Hamilton and Murphy lately

10pts - Lee v Carter - 1.75 @ Pinnical
Lee's won the Welsh open, got a quarter, a semi and 3 1st round exits, Carters got a quarter final and 2 1st round exits. Plus the fact that Lee's a much better player, I can't see why the odds are as high as they are. A clear 9 places seperated these players on last years scores and with Lee provisionally making places and Carter (just about) treading water.

Also Lee's best perfomances have been in the latter half of the season (beating Maguire, Wattana, Murphy, Dott (twice) and Hamilton), with Carter not nearly so impressive with only Ebdon, Cope and McManus beaten, all in the early season. Carter hasn't beaten anyone really since the UK Champs, his best performance being a 1st round exit in Malta against McManus.


Speculate to accumulate

A few of you know by now I like the 1st rounds, as I like to have a bit of a flutter on some accumulatortype bets. So in the interests of information sharing here's my accumulator selections for the 1st Round, please bear in mind though these are brief on reasoning and may be quite long shots (I'm aiming to get 1 accum out of 5 to break even, and I got one in China, so thats 1 in 3 so far...):

Selections in bold...

3pts - 7 selection accumulator - Total odds 8.93 @ Pinnical
A nice long shot here, some reasoning but mostly going off my gut, and what I've learned from watching the last few torneys closely.
Higgins v Selby - 1.17
Higgins is an obvious choice, runner up against Williams LTO, a string of good performances all year, low, low odds though
Williams v Hamilton - 1.40
Tornament winner LTO (China), as said before finding great form at the right time.
Hendry v Bond - 1.14
Hendry is a world class player, firmly seated in the top 3 both last year and provisionally, Bond is a medeochre opposition at best, another low odds though
Stevens v Swail - 1.43
Not much in these 2, although the bookies are clearly favouring Stevens. This years wrap tells another story though, with Swail performing much better LTO (China). I think if Stevens can get the mental bit right he can easily beat Swail though. better odds (1.44) at b365, but better odds on this accum from pinnical.
Lee v Carter - 1.75
Reasoning as stated above....
Maguire v King - 1.47
This ones all about the long term talent gap, Maguire steamed up the ranking last year and is holding in the top 8, while King's been dropping steadily. Better odds (1.50) at Wills but for the sake of the accumulator
Dott v Parrott - 1.30
Parrotts past it, but I think Dott's got something left in him. Dott beat Parrott in Malta this year (1st round). Parrotts crashed out on or before 1st round last 5 tornaments wheres Dotts made 2 quarter and 1 semi final exit Last 3 times out.


8pts (2pts X 4) - Trebles over 4 selections @ Pinnical
This one I've gone for trebles, so that if I get 1 wrong I'll lose between 2pts-0.5pts whereas the clean sheet gives a solid profit...
All reasoning for these is as above in either my singles selections or the accumulator...
Maguire v King - 1.47
Stevens v Swail - 1.43
Doherty v Hawkins - 1.68
McManus v Fu - 1.72



Well, if your still reading, good for you! 1 more thing before I shut up. During my analysis I managed to pull up a winner for every match, so for those interested in how good or bad a tipster I am with snooker, here's the list, those in italics are selections that I am not going to bet on, confidence out of 10 in brackets:

(10)Higgins, (10)Williams, (10)McManus, (9)Hendry, (9)O'Sullivan, (8)Lee, (8)Doherty, (8)Murphy, (7)Maguire, (6)Stevens, (5)Dott, (4)Perry, (3)Gray, (2)Ebdon, (2)Hicks, (1)Robertson

Well, what a doozie of a post, my fingers ache! Thats it for me for the 1st round. Put a good weeks work into my picks here, lets hope it's not waisted work...

As always I look forward to your comments and critisism of my selections...

ZuluWarrior

[TheRat]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/othe...or/default.stm

[kevshat]

About time I get my outrights up on here!

3pts ew K.Doherty 20/1 Betfred

I honestly believe Doherty is playing his best snooker since taking this title 9 years ago, having won the Malta Cup this season he'll be full of confidence and there's nobody in the top half of the draw that would scare him. It may just be that his hardest game on route to the semis and final could be his opener against Hawkins. Whilst that was the draw I least wanted I can't desert the Irishman.

1pt ew N.Robertson 50/1 Stan James

If a qualifier is to win this again then Robertson would be a good bet to be the one. He's definitely going to have a good future but he's not bad at the present either. He's troubled all the top names this season already and is one who'll fancy his chances again anyone. He has what looks like a bye in the 1st round which will also help and he can go well at a decentish price.

0.5pt ew S.Davis 150/1 Stan James
0.5pt ew J.Wattana 175/1 Bet365

The top quarter of the draw here is very weak indeed. Top seed in the quarter is Shaun Murphy who I'm seriously not keen on and the other seeds are Davis, Jimmy White and Peter Ebdon. Of those 3 only Davis has shown any sort of form with his run in the UK Championships. A repeat of that form may well be good enough to take Davis to the semis.

Given the weak line up in this section of the draw I'm going to have to go for arguably the most in form player of the 8 in James Wattana. The Thai looked in good nick on route to the quarters in the Welsh Open and then confirmed that form with a 5-0 drubbing of Ronnie O'Sullivan out in China. He's been to the semis in Sheffield in the past and ok he has to take out the defending champion in the 1st round but that's not beyond him and we could get a decent run out of the Thai at a very nice price.

[Feizal Rahman]

2006 World Snooker Championship

The 2005/06 snooker season has been blighted by a reduced schedule of only six ranking tournaments and a lack of prize money owing to the prohibition of tobacco sponsorship. Possibly as a consequence of this, many of snooker's big names have struggled to perform this season and few will travel to Sheffield in confident mood.

One major name who has taken advantage of his adversaries' lack of form has been John Higgins who goes into the World Championships on the back of a Grand Prix win at Preston in October and a Masters win at Wembley in January. Higgins also finished runner-up in the Malta Cup and China Open. However, since his debut Crucible win in 1998, Higgins has failed to regain the title managing only one other final, two semi-finals and two quarter-finals. The last two appearances at the Crucible have seen the Scot fail to progress further than the second round, though Higgins had attributed this to the burden of fatherhood. As the only major name to have any sort of consistency this season, Higgins looks to have his best chance yet to claim a second World Championship title.

The mental state of 5/2 favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan has yet again come into doubt in the lead-up to this tournament and the the two-time champion has even advised punters to avoid backing him this year. The Rocket has won the two World finals he has reached, yet this is far from an impressive statistic for an individual who is widely considered to be the most talented player ever. O'Sullivan's only ranking tournament final appearances this season were in the Grand Prix and the Masters, where Higgins beat him on both occasions, otherwise his form has been well below-par. Should he make it as far, O'Sullivan is drawn to meet Higgins in the quarter-finals and can be expected to lose to the in-form Scotsman.

The semi-final would then most likely see Higgins go up against fellow Scot, and seven times champion, Stephen Hendry who has only two semi-final appearances of note this season and is unlikely to pose as significant a threat as previous years. One major obstacle for Higgins beforehand could be a probable second round encounter with two-time champion Mark Williams. The Welshman is yet another who has struggled for any sort of consistency this season, though he did win the China Open in which he beat Higgins 9-8 in the final. Though other than that victory, Williams has failed to make the last four of any other tournament.

With the major names in the bottom half of the draw all desperately absent of any winning form and also the lack of any realistic outside chances, Higgins can be taken to make it to the final and should be backed to win at 9/2 and to place at 5/2 with Betfair.

The top half of the draw looks far more open with several players who have chances at decent prices. The top seed and last year's champion Shaun Murphy is sure to be aware that no first time Crucible champion has ever retained his title the following year and Ken Doherty remains the only debut winner to have even made the final the year after. Since his surprise victory last year, Murphy has failed to win any other ranking tournament and reached only one other final, that of the Welsh Open which he lost 9-4 to Stephen Lee. The affable Yorkshireman can be laid to reach this year's final at around 11/4 on Betfair.

The most likely candidate to deny Murphy a final appearance looks to be Peter Ebdon, who is drawn to meet the reigning title-holder in the quarter-finals. The 2002 champion has struggled like many this season but is one who tends to save his best performances for Sheffield. Should he make it to the Semi's, Ebdon is drawn to face one of Matthew Stevens or Stephen Maguire - neither of whom has made the final of a ranking tournament this season. Stevens, however, always performs well at the Crucible having made the final twice and the semi's on three occasions. With an accrued reputation of lacking the nerve to win a World Final, Stevens may see this year as his best chance of a victory with so many top names under-performing and he can go one step further than last year and prove the doubters wrong.

However, should Ken Doherty make it past a tough opener against Barry Hawkins, the Welshman will face the 1997 champion in the second round. Doherty has had a good season thus far beating John Higgins 9-8 in the final of the Malta Cup, though the Wizard of Wishaw got his revenge with a semi-final win in the China Open. Doherty's best other finish was a quarter-final in the UK Championship at York, where finalist Steve Davis beat him 9-7.

With a better Crucible pedigree than seeded opponent Stephen Maguire, both Matthew Stevens and Ken Doherty can be backed each-way at 16/1 and 20/1 respectively. Though as one will obviously be eliminated should they face each other, it may be advisable to back the winner after the match as their price should still be attractive. Peter Ebdon may prove a tough semi-final opponent should he make it that far, however, whichever of Stevens or Doherty progresses arguably has a superior chance of making the final.


Bets:

John Higgins win @ 9/2 (Betfair)

John Higgins place @ 5/2 (Betfair)

Shaun Murphy place lay @ 11/4 (Betfair)

Matthew Stevens e/w @ 16/1 (General)

Ken Doherty e/w @ 20/1 (General)

[davidmphill]

Great post FR.
Good luck with your picks.
I'd be happy to see Stevens do well.

[mullet1984]

Just got back from the far east. Jet lagged but looking forward to two weeks snooker action. Hello to everyone else and Zulu imparticular. How r u?

Yeah intersting post FR. I think you under estimate the form that Williams is in. When he plays Higgins it will be another great match.

When two very good in form players play each other such as them two it is very difficult for one player to get two frame sin front. If you watched the China Open for example no player ever got two frame sin front. It is an amazing opportunity when the score is 2-3 or 5-4 to which ever player to back the player who is trailing. I would suggest a 75% hit rate so for me this is where the money in crucible betting, in running. Over the longer distances you can also see when one player is dominating a session and adjust accordingly.

Zulu i agree with all your selections. Williams , Higgins and Lee is an absolute banker in my opinion. Further comments, I like Doherty alot against Hawkins. I've been fairly scathing of him lately but i feel the doc is too classy at present. Robertson for me is the long shot in the top half of the draw. Interesting comments about Ebdon FR. Maybe worth a small punt to place. I do expect Parrot to go clese against Dott. If i could have a bet i would bet on that to be the longest 1st round game in crucible history. Will take Parrot on the handicap but Dott will probably prevail.

However still think that the winner will come from Higgins , Williams match. Stevens i'm not sure about but has the ability to improve with each game.

My selections are below

[Paul Ross]

Here's my draw, with Williams winning it - I'll post my preview a bit later.

Round 1		Round 2	Quarter-final	Semi-final	Final
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

[Paul Ross]

0.5pt ew J.Wattana 175/1 Bet365

Quite freaked out when I saw that, as I agree he has every chance in the top half.