Six Nations 2008

[Mr Wall]

Originally Posted by Steve'O

I think Italy + 17.5 is the pick of the handicap picks. Ireland were truly awful during the World Cup and I don't think they've made significant improvement to warrant giving a solid side like Italy that kind of start.

France -5.5 is a tricky one as they are rebuilding a new side and England -12.5 is about right I think.

I think Italy are distinctly average and are very very susceptible to being attacked through the 3/4's. Which with O'drsicall and darcy, as well as murphy drifting outside them from 15 they should be able to break clear after 30 mins or so.

With Ireland at home at crooke park where the atmosphere always impresses, Italy travelling poorly (only 1 point in the history of the 6n away i think), and the irish desperate to wipe the memory of their WC from their minds I would say that this is Ireland on the handicap

[SteveO]

I took +18 earlier today with skybet. I agree with you MR, Italy are terrible travellers but I think they'll score at least 6points which puts them on at least 24 for the game. Ireland surely won't score many more than that and remember there wasn't a lot to choose between Scotland and Italy in their penultimate World Cup game.

[Pie-chucker]

Have been having a casual look at top tournie try scorer.

Two caught the eye.

Malzieu @ 14-1. Don't know much about him but Lievremont obviously does. A good game and one try first up could cement his XV slot and this price might look big.

Henson @ 100-1. Barring injury, could get a lot of game time. Would need to be in the right place, right time in broken play a couple of times, but not the worst - as they say.

[TheRat]

Gonna start with a bank of 100pts to see how I go. Each bet will be 10 pts unless stated.

First bet is England -14.5 2.28 Betfair
Big of a gamble but no really thinking an ospreys packed Wales team can handle England at Twickenham. Things have changed since last year when Wales beat us at the Millenium Stadium. Wales have not won at Twickenham for some 20 years and England will look to capitalise on a sucessful World Cup and claim the 6 Nations and they will be out to show their intent and batter Wales. Some players will be looking to impress. Large margin to cover but easily achievable and willing to take this larger amount for better odds.

[Wumpking]

Hi All.

Some good posts here on the forthcoming Six Nations -

I'm posting on a thread on the Systems and Strategy forum which is using IRB ratings to determine handicaps on rugby internationals (see Rugby Ratings System for further details).

According to my system, winning margins for the weekend will be:

Ireland to win by 17
England to win by 31 (as a Welshman - gulp!)
France to win by 1

As such, handicap bets for me are:

England (-12) - £5.00 @ 1.91 with Blue Square

Scotland (+5) - £5.00 @ 2.00 with Bet365

No bet on the Ireland game as I feel the bookies handicaps are too close to the predicted winning margin and therefore does not represent any value.

Best of luck all with your selections.

[TheRat]

Good luck Wumpking

Hope you're right about the England margin

Narraway hat-trick!

[Wumpking]

Originally Posted by TheRat

Good luck Wumpking

Hope you're right about the England margin

Narraway hat-trick!

Cheers TheRat. It'll break my heart to see Wales lose by a big margin, but like you, I cannot see the Ospreys (partic with Marshall & Holah missing) beating England at HQ.

5 out of the past 8 matches played between the two at Twickenham would have returned a profit backing England with a -12 (or even a -14.5) handicap.

For the record:

04-Aug-07	England	62 - 5	Wales
04-Feb-06	England	47 - 13	Wales
20-Mar-04	England	31 - 21	Wales
09-Nov-03	England	28 - 17	Wales
23-Mar-02	England	50 - 10	Wales
04-Mar-00	England	46 - 12	Wales
21-Feb-98	England	60 - 26	Wales
03-Feb-96	England	21 - 15	Wales

[TheRat]

Yea, saw those stats when researching my bet.
I'm never confident in the first game of the 6 Nations, can never really tell how the teams will turn up, but everything points to a comfortable England win

[Pie-chucker]

Ireland v Italy

The 6N is more Ireland's forte (75% win rate since became 6, second only to France) but does this mean basically the same dross as WC can suddenly play accurate, creative rugby? Croke Park before 80,000 and against Italy, bolshy forwards but not much else, could be the proving ground. Ireland should cover the cap. I'm mainly worried about the weather forecast that suggests rain/flurries. So am taking another bet (at PP) that may provide some insurance.

10 pts Ireland -16 @ evens
4 pts Ireland to win by 11-20 @ 11-4

England v Wales

All stats, history and common sense in this 'club v country' clash shout England. They also have the better bench. It's the Gatland/Shaun Edwards factor that seems to give Wales hope. New thinking and more time together than England, but probably all bollox on the day. I think we'll know the handicap winner after the first six line-outs; solid stuff here crucial. I'm Welsh on this, but will need them to score the first try.

11 pts Wales +14 @ 10-11
2 pts HT/FT Wales/England @ 7-1

I too will kick-off with 100 in the bank. Let's go .

[seabird]

You put your case well Mr.Wall in answer to my observations of the Welsh tactics. I still expect Wales to do what I said, but let's see. One other consideration has now come into contention . . the weather. If the bad weather does arrive in London and slows down the game then the 12pts may become a little tight. I am expecting a lot of counter attacks from England, and if the pitch becomes heavy it may lessen the chances. I would go no more than 12pts, even though the price is a bit better for 14.5 Rat. But good luck anyway.

[Big Bets]

I like the look of the Welsh backilne but this will come down to the old adage - your pack wins the game and the backs determine by how much.
In saying this, the Poms should absolutely monster the Welsh pack, and if Johnny's boot is consistent should see them win by a decent margin. Nice stats Wumpking.

Ireland might have a good record in the 6 Nations pie chucker, but does this record really stand for much when their recent international form has been worse than woeful?? Their World Cup form was nothing short of embarrasing and they simply dont have the cattle to compete against France or England. Ireland need the impressive Alan Gaffney in some sort of capacity and they need him fast. The Aussie coach has a great raport with his players and Irish Rugby could use his intellect and people management skills.

[Mr Wall]

Originally Posted by seabird

You put your case well Mr.Wall in answer to my observations of the Welsh tactics. I still expect Wales to do what I said, but let's see. One other consideration has now come into contention . . the weather. If the bad weather does arrive in London and slows down the game then the 12pts may become a little tight. I am expecting a lot of counter attacks from England, and if the pitch becomes heavy it may lessen the chances. I would go no more than 12pts, even though the price is a bit better for 14.5 Rat. But good luck anyway.

I'm arguing in my own head one way or the other. Like I said I don't think I would touch this one with a barge pole, to many dependants

1) Can the Welsh front 5 compete with the english? parity would suit wales

2) Can an inexperienced english backrow (at 6 and 8 - the vital positions in contact/rucking areas) compete with teh experience and power of ryan jones and jonathon thomas?

3) Both teams are dodgy in the lineout? who will fail more?

4) 13 Ospreys - will it mean them not upping their game as it wont feel as much of an international or will their experience together help?

5) Balshaw? will he buckle or hold up to pressure

6) Defence. A new defensive coach with a huge reputation and all ospreys playing the same way he coaches means it could be more promising, but it is still new to them in edwards methods.

7) Shane. awesome in attack but when teh volcano comes on can he hold him back?

8) Can flood cope with henson against him?

9) Can hook and phillips control a game?

10) which Byrne will turn up? the consistant one of this season or the nightmare one of last?

and there are many other variables, the wingers kicking game - neither sides wingers have one so which could cope, etc etc etc

If a gun was held to my head i would say england by 10 - 12, but I wouldnt want to stake money on it.

Not trying to prove anyone right or wrong, just saying I am keeping my distance from betting.

For a more worthwhile bet I just heard that shane williams is 2/1 to finish welsh top try scorer. The only other potential for me is parker as henson is playing 12 and does a good job of setting his 13 up, but with shanklin likely to get at least a start or 2 and mark jones never looking for work i think shane is the only man

[Mr Wall]

Have thought and rethought my comments re the scotland france game and as the betting seems to have to France -4 I would bet a lot of money on this.

Yes they are new and scotland are a settled team, but settled at what?

Stats are simple for me. France were world cup semi finalists, perennial contenders for the championship and even with a new team have players to create something from nothing (clerc., traille, elissade)

Scotland are consistantly losing. I don't care how settled the team is the only game they won last season was home to wales where, even for a bad welsh team, they had a nightmare rather than scotland winning it. They have been trounced by all their tri nations opponents. they lost to italy in the 6n and only beat them with 6 penalties in the WC (and then only just). They seem to have developed a reputation but as I see it they have an average pack and are very weak at 10, 12, 13. the french have said they are looking to play expansive rugby and I expect them to cut loose and end up winning by 15 or so.

The only question mark for me on this will be the weather

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Big Bets

I like the look of the Welsh backilne but this will come down to the old adage - your pack wins the game and the backs determine by how much.
In saying this, the Poms should absolutely monster the Welsh pack, and if Johnny's boot is consistent should see them win by a decent margin. Nice stats Wumpking.

Ireland might have a good record in the 6 Nations pie chucker, but does this record really stand for much when their recent international form has been worse than woeful?? Their World Cup form was nothing short of embarrasing and they simply dont have the cattle to compete against France or England. Ireland need the impressive Alan Gaffney in some sort of capacity and they need him fast. The Aussie coach has a great raport with his players and Irish Rugby could use his intellect and people management skills.

to PL Big Bets. Nice 1st post

[SteveO]

The more I've studied the England v Wales match less convinced I am of a performance from the Welsh to stay within the handicap. England's pack are way too powerful and it hurt's me to say this but we are going to get battered. England now as low as -11 on the handicap and this surely is a stand out bet.

Advised bet 10pts win england -11

[Mr Wall]

I suppose after all my talk I should say what I am betting on.

1) medium stake england, france and irish wins @ 1.88

2) BIG stake france handicap win on -4 @ 2.00

3) top wales try scorer, large stake - shane williams - 2.5

The only one I havent given reasons for is the top welsh try scorer so.....

Henson is a proivder more than a scorer so is unlikely to finish top. Usually that would mean I bet on 13 however right now that is parker so i expect that to give way to shanklin later in the tournament.

In the backs I thinks that phillips, hook, parker and byrne will all not be playing at least 1 game, prob 2, so should not be counted. That leaves only mark jones who for me doesnt coming insode looking for enough work

Williams is consistantly top scorer for a reason and I expect him to be again

[Football-Tipper]

Saturdays live games

	14:00 - 16:00	Six Nations Rugby							Live!
				Ireland	vs.	Italy

	16:00 - 18:30	Six Nations Rugby							Live!
				England	vs.	Wales

[Big Bets]

You're right Wall.

That Williams tryscorer bet looks like pretty solid money.

Anyone betting overs/unders?

If you want an exotic bet of the round, check out England to be first point scorers with a penalty @ $2.90

[Citizen Kane]

I'll join Rat and Pie and start a 100pt bank for the 6N.

10pts England -12.5 @ 1.95 (Centrebet)
Agree with most that England forwards will dominate and IMO weight of possesion will turn into enough points to cover.

5pts Italy +17.5 @ 1.87 (NZTab)
Obviously not as confident hence the half bet. The start is a relatively large one for a team who should be competitive in the forwards. I expect Mallet to have a sound defensive plan in place and as mentioned above if Italy score 9-12pts the margin will be hard to overcome.

10pts France HTH @ 1.55
Much as France is the unknown I find it hard to get enthusiastic about Scotland's chances. Was tempted by the margin but in the end Scotland should kick their penalties to keep it close and always the chance that France will play badly but score a last minute 7 pointer to nick it. All in all I believe a good price for the HTH.

GLA

Cheers
CK

[TheRat]

Anyone know an online link to watch this?