Six Nations 2008

[TheRat]

Should be a good comp, and if we can recreate the kind of play we did in the KO stages then we are in with a shout
Also like to take this chance to big up a mate of mine who got called up to the starting 15 against Wales, thoroughly deserved
http://sport.guardian.co.uk/sixnatio...248724,00.html

Outright

	France	7/4	1.72/1
	England	5/2	2.35/1
	Ireland	11/2	5.6/1
	Wales	9/1	9/1
	Scotland	14/1	12.5/1
	Italy	100/1	89/1

Saturday 2 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Ireland v Italy (14:00GMT)	1/10	59/1	11/1	101%	Details »
Hide « Ireland v Italy
England v Wales (16:30GMT)	1/4	33/1	5/1	100%	Details »
Hide « England v Wales
Sunday 3 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Scotland v France (15:00GMT)	93/50	27/1	3/5	101%	Details »

[Mr Wall]

England @ 5/2 looks damn good value for me. They are simply the last team standing, a very poor 6n this year imo.


A relatively settled team who made the final, have a pack that can dominate and have Jon boot back at 10, as well as real pace and power on the wings

France have made some shocking selections in their squad and have a new coach who will need time to settle.

Wales have selected 13 players from the same team simply because they havent had time together.

Irelands team have aged and their important players like BoD and darcy are severly lacking form. their WC showing was a true reflection and their coach is inept

Scotland are very very over rated

italy are limited

I am tempted to go for an england grand slam (only question for me is how they do in paris), and trust me, as a welshman that hurts to say!

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Mr Wall

England @ 5/2 looks damn good value for me. They are simply the last team standing, a very poor 6n this year imo.


A relatively settled team who made the final, have a pack that can dominate and have Jon boot back at 10, as well as real pace and power on the wings

France have made some shocking selections in their squad and have a new coach who will need time to settle.

Wales have selected 13 players from the same team simply because they havent had time together.

Irelands team have aged and their important players like BoD and darcy are severly lacking form. their WC showing was a true reflection and their coach is inept

Scotland are very very over rated

italy are limited

I am tempted to go for an england grand slam (only question for me is how they do in paris), and trust me, as a welshman that hurts to say!

to PL Mr Wall. Excellent 1st post mate

[TheRat]

England do look value
Its all about France away, which was done recently
I can't see anyone upsetting England except the French and they do not seem to be the team they were in last years six nations

England are best priced 6/1 to win the slam, and as it seems to boil down to that one game this would be worth the gamble rather than just winning the cup......

Need to think about this over the next few days and look into it more

And welcome to you Mr Wall

[Mr Wall]

Originally Posted by TheRat

England do look value
Its all about France away, which was done recently
I can't see anyone upsetting England except the French and they do not seem to be the team they were in last years six nations

England are best priced 6/1 to win the slam, and as it seems to boil down to that one game this would be worth the gamble rather than just winning the cup......

Need to think about this over the next few days and look into it more

And welcome to you Mr Wall

thanks kev and rat

whereas france have to go to cardiff at the end of the championship by which time gatland and edwards will have had time to mould wales but the dodgy squad choices for france will still be in play. and much as scotland are over-rated they are settled so have a chance against a new look french team who are notoriously tempremental whoever is playing

and as you say england have already done france in france with a far more pressured environment

i would say definately yes to england for the championship, and its all down to one game for the GS, depends on how sure you are on that score

[Mr Intensity]

How long does this last please?

[Mr Wall]

Originally Posted by Mr Intensity

How long does this last please?

last round of games is mid march, pretty sure the 15th

[Mr Intensity]

Originally Posted by Mr Wall

last round of games is mid march, pretty sure the 15th

Thanks Mr Wall to PL!!

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by Mr Intensity

How long does this last please?

Starts on Saturday and the last games are on the 15 March

[Mr Wall]

For those interested betinternet.com have an accumulator of

England to beat Wales
Ireland to beat Italy
France to beat scotland

@1.99

I'm holding fire for the french team to be named as that for me is the only question mark, unless my prayers are answered and wales pull a miracle off!

completely off topic but are there any beginners guides worth reading on this site (i.e. about things like points etc)

[TheRat]

You a big fan then Mr wall? Who are your team?
Big Worcester Warriors fan myself

when I get back home there go to every game

[Mr Wall]

Originally Posted by TheRat

You a big fan then Mr wall? Who are your team?
Big Worcester Warriors fan myself

when I get back home there go to every game

Ospreys, I'm a swansea boy - happily watch any rugby at all though. Go watch anytime I don't have a game myself (rubbish lower leagues only these days - though I have played against 3 of the starting welsh team back when i was a half decent youngster - damn beer!)

I do keep an eye on wors, if only because of the welsh link (Huge ruddock fan, coached a couple of sessions when i was a kid and i thought he was great and he coached my local team last season).

Great result for you guys against brizz this week hey, got to help you feel better about staying up

[TheRat]

Definatly
Been watching Worcester since they were in league 4 or something when there wasn't even a stand at the ground, back in the day and my mum now works for the club.
Last time I went back I went to see my mum and had some quick banter with Ruddock, seemed like a nice chap and I hope our fotunes have changed
All our losses this year are so tight (hence the reason we have so many losing bonus points), but hopefully we have turned a corner. Can't wait for Latham next year, and Gear seems to be playing well, and Sam in the centre the other New Zealander looks class.

Quinell is also a monster! He needs to get fitter but he's a decent impact player for us! Unit!

[Pie-chucker]

G'day, Mr Wall. Rat, I was at Worcester RGS some years ago, in the Imran Khan era! Keep an eye on Sixways from afar (hong kong).

Can't get excited about 6N tournie odds, but will hope to be picking off a few handicap bets as the weekends unfold.

Mallett won't fancy 6N coaching baptism at Croke Park against an Ireland side looking to banish WC memories and put down a marker. A 22pts+ home margin looks likely as Italy have the first stir of the wooden spoon.

Best game should be at Twickenham. There's 7-1 about HT/FT Wales/England and I'm tempted by that... and the draw FT. Close, I reckon. One of those games where if the line-out starts to mis-fire for the team you've backed on the handicap, you'll know your money's done early.

God knows which (reconstructed) lot of Frogs will turn up in Scotland. Bookies have it at France -5. This game shouts 'small stakes' to me. Am now tilting towards France to cover.

Let's try to nail 3/3 on handicap, and take it from there

[Mr Wall]

Just looking at those margins on betintenet.com.

Despite Irelands bad form and ageing pack (as well as not selecting Bowe, why?) they should be far far too strong for an italy who don't travel well and whose stars are less inspirational than in seasons past

Ireland at -17.5 look good value

they have england at -12.5 that I don't fancy at all. The welsh team has been selected with a distinct defensive pattern in mind (the blitz, hence parkers inclusion) from one of the best proponents of the art in teh new defensive coach shaun edwards. I think england by 7 - 10 is more likely. Not confident at all about it though, could be anything from a small welsh win (unlikely but as a welshman I dream, also interesting to see that the odds have dropped since the teams have been named) to a 25 point beating against us as the players arent yet used to the system. small bet on england if i do bet on this handicap

-5.5 to france is something that my gut says should happen. BUT Scotland did beat france here to 2 years ago, shocking many, and France are a new look side with some players that are lucky to make the squad. The scots have a half decent pack for the first time in a long while but their backs are massively over-rated. Waiting on the team to see if a) the french pack can get on top of the scots b) how much better the backs will be. I expect to place a mid size bet on this handicap but am holding fire

(oh and i thought I would point out that Ruddock has taken a step down this season. Last year he was the assistant coach to the best team in the world... the mighty mumbles)

[Pie-chucker]

Good thoughts there, Wall. Wondered why Parker not Shanklin.

But apart from Ireland you seem to sitting on the fence, er, wall.

And why not . Weekend a long way away.

[SteveO]

I think Italy + 17.5 is the pick of the handicap picks. Ireland were truly awful during the World Cup and I don't think they've made significant improvement to warrant giving a solid side like Italy that kind of start.

France -5.5 is a tricky one as they are rebuilding a new side and England -12.5 is about right I think.

[TheRat]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

G'day, Mr Wall. Rat, I was at Worcester RGS some years ago, in the Imran Khan era! Keep an eye on Sixways from afar (hong kong).

Well, I went to Chantry in Martley, but long after the Imran Khan days

[seabird]

England minus 12 looks good to me. Wales have obviously got only one plan, and that is to fire high balls at the England fullback. Now if that works Wales may get the odd point or two, but if it doesn't work England will run riot against what is basically a club side (Ospreys). I personally would expect England to win by at least 20 points. For Wales to pick a club side because they havn't had time to prepare a 'real' team seems sad to me in the context of Welsh rugby. Add to this that the Welsh have made no secret that they intend to 'rough up' England, look out for value bets that include Wilkinson to get quite a lot of penalty kicks and points.

My advice is to put as much as you can afford on England -12

[Mr Wall]

Originally Posted by seabird

England minus 12 looks good to me. Wales have obviously got only one plan, and that is to fire high balls at the England fullback. Now if that works Wales may get the odd point or two, but if it doesn't work England will run riot against what is basically a club side (Ospreys). I personally would expect England to win by at least 20 points. For Wales to pick a club side because they havn't had time to prepare a 'real' team seems sad to me in the context of Welsh rugby. Add to this that the Welsh have made no secret that they intend to 'rough up' England, look out for value bets that include Wilkinson to get quite a lot of penalty kicks and points.

My advice is to put as much as you can afford on England -12

You could well be right, i suspect a larger england win.

But a number of factors for me sugest aganist your reading of it

1) putting high balls against balshaw can and has worked. he is dodgy in defence (very good in attack though) and you only have to look back 3 weeks ago to when the Ospreys (13 of which are in teh welsh starting 15) launched the ball on to him time and again with great success, including hensons try.

2) Saying the only tactic is to launch the ball when we are starting Hook instead of Jones seems unlikely. Hook is a tremendous breaker, capable of wonderful, mesmerising runs and bits of skill, but he is far from a game controller... We would pick Jones if kicking were essential to our game plan. Any team that has a backline that includes Hook, Henson and shane williams (another that suggests against the constant high ball tactic) will be able to break from pretty much anywhere.

But you are right, if I am to get off my fence with these handicaps I would pick Ireland, England and France. I suggest a large bet on Ireland (much as they have been poor o'driscall, darcy and murphy have too much skill to be held close by italy... and they will have the bit between their teeth with a lot to prove to their fans after that shocking WC), a midsize bet on france (scotland are very over rated imo) and a small bet on england (though i will be running scared from this bet because there are too many variables in this for me)