Rugby - Wales v South Africa (24th Nov)

[Wumpking]

Wales play the RWC champions on Saturday 24th November (14:45 GMT) in probably a half empty stadium for what should be the 'Grav' Cup.

The Welsh side selected is:

Wales: 15 Morgan Stoddart, 14 Mark Jones, 13 Sonny Parker, 12 Gavin Henson, 11 Tom Shanklin, 10 James Hook, 9 Dwayne Peel, 8 Jonathan Thomas, 7 Robin Sowden-Taylor, 6 Colin Charvis, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Ian Evans, 3 Rhys Thomas, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Gethin Jenkins
Replacements: 16 T Rhys Thomas, 17 Duncan Jones, 18 Luke Charteris, 19 Alix Popham, 20 Mike Phillips, 21 Ceri Sweeney, 22 Tom James

A reasonable looking selection. A strong Osprey axis at 10 / 12 / 13. Hopefully Henson will have a point to prove in his first full start for over a year. Not sure however about Shanklin on the wing.

The South African side selected is:

South Africa: 15 Ruan Pienaar, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Francois Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana; 10 Andre Pretorius, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Johann Muller, 4 Bakkies Botha,3 Jannie Du Plessis, 2 John Smit, 1 CJ van der Linde
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Albert van den Berg, 19 Hilton Lobberts, 20 Wynand Olivier, 21 Conrad Jantjes, 22 Akona Ndungane

A number of first team players missing (Percy Montgomery, Butch James, Fourie Du Preez, Danie Rossouw and Victor Matfield being the notable absentees), although there are still 9 members of the RWC winning side in the team.

Wales are now ranked a lowly 10th on the IRB ratings with 74.17 whilst South Africa are 1st with 90.81. The IRB 'handicap' home sides by treating them as being 3 points stronger than their current rating. If we assume this equates to the traditional 6/7 points home advantage is considered to be then Wales, in theory, should lose to the Boks by 27 to 32 points!

Based purely on the ratings, prices would probably be somewhere in the region of:

Wales @ 51.00
South Africa @ 1.02
Draw @ 67.00

Bookie prices currently available for the match are:

Wales @ 2.75 to 3.55
South Africa @ 1.28 to 1.40
Draw @ 14.0 to 26.0

In the handicap market, Wales can be backed with a +7 to +9 start @ 1.90.

Are the Boks excellent value here? Or are the ratings completely wrong? A bit of both I think, particularly as Wales will have a point to prove following their RWC disaster whilst the South African side will want to give White a decent farewell for what is his final test in charge of the Boks. Bet for me therefore is on the handicap with a 2 points win on South Africa (-7) @ 1.90 with SkyBet.

[Drogba's Bitch]

Im with you mate, already on SA -7. I was thinking it was gonna be around the 14 mark. Alright there are a few players missing but imo they will still have more than enough to take care of this welsh team. Gavin Henson is back in and may prove to be a bit of a weak link. From what i have seen and heard of him this season, his form hasn't exactly been amazin .
Hopefully a couple of the Welsh boys on here will come and fill us in a bit more. If it isn't raining i think there will be a few points scored and SA will win between 10-15 points

[RiscFreeBettingOrg]

I think Africa wins because Africa's team is very strong..
Thats is only my thinks...
Sorry for my English..

[Pie-chucker]

Apart from RWC final, SA have been regularly racking up 30+ in recent games, and will likely do so here. But it's a bloody odd and unnecessary fixture. Wales, particularly individually, have quite a bit to play for with Gatland gazing on. Can't see any motive/incentive for SA to turn it on.

Not much of a betting game! But yeah, 14 would also have been my handicap.

[Football-Tipper]

SA -4 @ HT 10/11 SA will want to lay this to bed as early as possible and no team are better kicking than the boks......

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Originally Posted by Drogba's Bitch

Gavin Henson is back in and may prove to be a bit of a weak link.

lol good analysis, hes one of the few playing well out there. Looks a class above the rest of the welsh backs.

[2hcb]

well done everyone, you were all right the cap should have been 12-15pts. I didn't take it as a small part of me thought Wales might be able to cause the upset so I didn't bet. As it was the Boks were just too clinical.