Rugby League: Super League XIII - Round 14

[kevshat]

Friday 16 May 2008	Home	Away
Wigan Warriors v Warrington Wolves (19:30BST)	-6	+6	Details »
Hide « Wigan Warriors v Warrington Wolves
Leeds Rhinos v Wakefield Trinity (20:00BST)	-16	+16	Details »
Hide « Leeds Rhinos v Wakefield Trinity
Saturday 17 May 2008	Home	Away
St Helens v Catalans Dragons (18:00BST)	-18	+18	Details »
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Sunday 18 May 2008	Home	Away
Harlequins RL v Hull FC (15:00BST)	-2.5	+2.5	Details »
Hide « Harlequins RL v Hull FC
Huddersfield Giants v Hull KR (15:00BST)	-4	+4	Details »
Hide « Huddersfield Giants v Hull KR
Castleford Tigers v Bradford Bulls (15:30BST)	+14.5	-14.5	Details »
Hide « Castleford Tigers v Bradford Bulls

Looks a tricky week this week. Will be back with some thoughts tomorrow.

[kevshat]

Just the one for me tonight. I'm leaving the TV game alone as that could go either way although Warrington could well be a touch of value in truth.

10pts Wakefield (+14) to beat Leeds 2.02 Betfair

Wakefield have a habit of playing above themselves against the big sides. In Danny Brough and Jamie Rooney they've got a half back combination which can unlock defences and with Brad Drew back tonight too they have an extra bit of quality. Leeds have had to play a few youngsters in recent weeks due to injury and international callup's. Brent Webb is back from the Anzac test but whether he'll be 100% remains to be seen. John Kear has a habit of upsetting the big sides and although it's unwise to think Wakefield can go to Headingley and win, they can stay within 14pts of the champions.

[henry]

I was actually thinking of going -14 Leeds tonight. Leeds are back at almost full strength now. There appears to be a gulf in class betwwen these two. Leeds having already beat Wakey by 30 plus points on their own patch in round 2(that was with Rooney, Brough and Drew all in the lineup). The lineups tonight arent to disimilar to what was on show in that previous fixture.

The weather looking good. It looks set up for a Leeds masterclass. -14 all the way for me.

[kevshat]

True, but Wakey didn't start too well did they but they are playing better now and have had 2 strolls in the park in the last fortnight while Leeds have had a couple of tough matches. It could just turn into one of those matches where Leeds get ahead in the 2nd half and just do enough to stay ahead without winning by a distance. We'll see

Just to amend that bet I'm on, it's actually +14.5pts not 14 as betfair don't do 3 way handicaps .

[henry]

If Wakey can keep it competitive by half time the +14 could well be on. Leeds last two games against Wakey. 8-44 and 44-4 showed HTs of 0-38 and 18-0.

Wakey are a good side though. They should get points on the board with Rooney and Brough at the helm. Leeds though have just looked scintilating this season and I just cant see Wakey staying with them.

What I will say though. Wakey did beat Leeds in the earlier part of last season at Headingley which I attribute to the poor wet handling conditions on the day. So you just never know.

[henry]

Saints -16 for me tonight. Catalans sit 2nd at the moment but I sense they have been over acheiving at the moment. The bubble looks to have burst against the Bulls in the challenge cup. They took quite a hiding. Saints are back at their best. They are pretty much full strength. I fancy Saints to win by a distance here.

[leespam]

You’ve got another one disagreeing with you henry I’m afraid . Sorry .

I think Catalans deserve a little more respect for their record this season IMO. They sit 2nd in the table for a reason and I think they can keep within 3 tries of Saints tonight. They’ve got a 4 match form record of 4-0-0 and they’ve a favourable recent record vs. Saints, winning 3 out of the last 4 meetings (albeit all 3 of them have been at home and they’ve been hammered 53-10 in the away meeting ). They're a big physical side who try to keep things tight, but the only thing that worries me is they can be a bit too physical - they've given away 140 penalties this season , the most in Super League.

All in all, although I expect Saints to win, I think the h'cap might be a bit too far in their favour and I’ll take the slightly better +18.5 available on Betfair for a couple of points

2pts Catalans (+18.5pts) to beat St. Helens @ 1.88 (betfair)

GL all…

[henry]

HT Saints 16-0 Catalans

Didnt really have much have much time to meat out my tip earlier. I know the head to head doesnt make good reading but those Saints defeats must be put in context. Not only were they away from home. In all 3 defeats they played depleted teams(No Long and Cunningham). This team tonight is probably the strongest they could play.

At the half time stage I think Catalans look there for the taking. No territory, high penalty count, lots of droped ball. I fancy my -16 is looking quite good. Id even go so far as to say this is the bet of the season...

HT IN PLAY
Saints -28 @ 2.00 (Bet365)

Looks absolutely nailed on at the moment.

[henry]

Different cats side 2nd half already. I think my luck maybe out. 16-6

[henry]

FT 28-10

Crazy game. Saints should have anhilated Cats 1st half looked like a cake walk. Casts muscled up 2nd half and made a real game of it. Even so. They gave away so many penalties and suffered a sin binning.

[kevshat]

Couple of good pre-match calls there Henry. Nice work mate. That result worked out nicely for both you and Lee so well done both .

[leespam]

Cheers Kev, was a bloody close one! Another one for me today.

I fancy Bradford to do the business at Castleford today. They look to have the advantage in most areas. They have the better recent defensive record (20pts conc. p/game (last 4) compared to Cas’ 37pts p/game), better league position, better recent form, more meters made, I could go on.

That’s not to say that Cas don’t have a chance. They’ve accounted for Saints and Leeds this season and Bradford do seem to rely on Deacon’s kicks/penalties for a lot of points (which is not ideal when trying to beat the H’cap). However, with it being around the 14pt mark, they should have enough to break clear IMO.

2pts Bradford (-14.5pts) to beat Castleford @ 1.91 (betfair)

GL all…

[Karel]

You just have to go high on points on the Bradford v Cas game today, I have done it on the spread at 53, I think its about as low risk as it gets. Fixed odds is higher than 52 10/11

Don't fancy Bradford too much giving all that start, Cas can be unpredictable at home and keep games tight, away from home I would agree.

Good luck anyway.

[leespam]

24-46 it finished. That'll do . I was also considering having a bet on Hull KR earlier on as well. Glad I dodged that bullet (beaten 50-16 )


Cracking call on the spreads as well Karel .

[kevshat]

Good work chaps

[Karel]

24-46 it finished. That'll do . I was also considering having a bet on Hull KR earlier on as well. Glad I dodged that bullet (beaten 50-16 )


Cracking call on the spreads as well Karel .

Well done you too Lee with the handicap........I have been to this fixture in the past and there is always a truckload of points. Cas have a bad defence, but generally always put points on the board at home.