Rugby League: Challenge Cup

[Ronnie]

Saturday 31 May 2008	Home	Away
Leeds Rhinos v Wigan Warriors (14:30BST)	-12	+12	Details »
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Sunday 1 June 2008	Home	Away
Hull KR v St Helens (15:00BST)	+8	-8	Details »
Hide « Hull KR v St Helens
Bradford Bulls v Hull FC (15:15BST)	-10	+10	Details »
Hide « Bradford Bulls v Hull FC
Wakefield Trinity v Oldham Roughyeds (15:30BST)	-38	+38	Details »

[Karel]

Seem about right them. I was hoping Wigan would not have as much start through previous results, but feel Leeds had one eye on this last week and will be after revenge, but you can't take away recent results and back them with too much confidence.

I will be backing low points on Bradford v Hull .....Hull don't score many but have a good defence and the new coach factor etc..Can't see many points here and will sell at anything less than 45.

[Partridge]

I like wigan to win at 7/2. They are on good form at the moment having beaten both warrington and wakefield and have a good record here.

noble knows exactly how to play leeds and how to stop them.

leeds are not great on the right hand side of their defence, so hopefully wigan can do some damage there and possibly sneak this.

[kevshat]

I'm not brave enough to back them to win but I'm all over the +12.

10pts Wigan +12 to beat Leeds Evs Bet365

This handicap is way too high for a cup quarter final. Like the league match between the two earlier in the season I see this being a very tight match. The difference here of course is rather than go for tries, both teams may well settle for the 2pts whenever they get penalties near the sticks which reduces the chances of a big win. Leeds are without Ali Lauititi for this match who could be a big miss while for the Warriors, centre Cameron Phelps makes his debut. Wigan are in great form at the minute and they've already won at Headingley this season. I expect a bruising encounter but one which Wigan will stay within a dozen of the Rhinos.

[Punto83]

Good tipping Kev

[Karel]

Well done Kev, hope you spanked them. Part of me said today that it could be Leeds day to get serious revenge, the other part said you cannot ignore Wigans recent record, so it was no bet all round.

[leespam]

Yeah. good call on Wigan Kev mate .

One for me tomorrow although I agree with Karel, all the lines look about right this week .


2pts Bradford (-10) to beat Hull @ 10/11 (widely available)

Hull come into this game with a new permanent coach in Richard Agar and will be looking to improve on an extremely disappointing and injury-hit season so far by advancing to the semi-finals. However, although I’d be expecting an improved performance from Hull, IMO I don’t see where the points are going to come from (2nd worst scoring record in last 4 Super League rounds). They’ve also lost 2 out of the last 3 meetings vs. Bradford by more than 10pts and due to the season they’ve had so far, Steve McNamara’s team seem to have the edge in most departments.

Looking at the stats, Bradford have the better form, home advantage, and just better attacking options overall (Deacon, Sykes, Tadulala, Hape, I would take over the likes of Hall, Raynor, Yeaman and Tony) and I’m hoping they can cover a 10pt handicap tomorrow.


As always with the handicap, the bets not without risk though. Hull backers will be encouraged by the fact they’ve only failed to win with a 10pt start in 2 out of there 7 Super League fixtures this season (and that was early in the season) and the Racing Post’s Rod Studd had a more than favourable verdict on the effects of new coaches in today’s edition.


However, over the 3 games I’m slightly more confident on Bradford above my other two fancies for the games, Saints (-8) and Wakey (-40). Might come back with a bet on Saints but can’t make my mind up at the moment. KR’s start seems to have come into 8 from 10 so all the money seems to be for Rovers, but I can’t stop myself looking at Saints considering their recent defensive record (only 56pts in conceded in last 4 ).


GL all, however you go…

[Karel]

Lee just one thing to think about, Paul Deacon is not playing again tomorrow and they did miss him against Leeds, just thought I would let you know in case it swayed your decision.

19 man squad

If not good luck, I will be selling the points so hopefully we can both win.

[kevshat]

Cheers guys. Always looked a bit high that handicap in a cup tie. Thought Wigan were unlucky to lose too, clearly the better side for me but the prospect of a Saints vs Leeds final is still on.

Good luck with Bradford tomorrow Lee. Handicap looks a touch on the high side for me but I hope it comes in for you.

[leespam]

Originally Posted by Karel

Lee just one thing to think about, Paul Deacon is not playing again tomorrow and they did miss him against Leeds, just thought I would let you know in case it swayed your decision.

19 man squad

If not good luck, I will be selling the points so hopefully we can both win.

B*llocks .

Had already put the bet on so for once I'll be hoping Iestyn Harris can have a good game .

Can see how you've come to the unders mate. Bradford missing important scoring options, Hull's poor scoring record. Like you say, hope we can both win mate , cheers for the info .

[Karel]

Well I have looked at the spreads for the Bradford v Hull game and you have to go lower than 42 points. I was hoping to be able to sell at more than this, so went and had a look at the fixed odds and took 7/4 with bet direct that there would be less than 39 points. I think this is a good price and I don't live too far from Bradford and here it has been raining all morning and forcast is for light rain when it begins, add that to Paul Deacon being out and I think this is a very good price.

[Karel]

Quick update, it is still raining here, so I have gone lower than 42 on the spreads also.

So I really want to be bored to tears with this game.

[leespam]

Bradford 16-22 Hull

Bradford (6) 16 Tries: Tupou, Sykes Goals: Harris (4) Hull (16) 22 Tries: Sing (2), Byrne Goals: Tickle (5)

Hull deserved it as well. Bradford looked clueless going forward and Hull were solid defensively throughout. When they were presented with the penalties early on, the top teams go for the try – Bradford seemed to show why they struggle without Deacon IMO.

Never mind. Hopefully learn from the mistakes I seem to have picked up from Football betting (increased importance of team news, new coaches and matchday weather ) and onto next week.

Another good shout on the unders Karel

[kevshat]

Hard luck mate. Don't think Hull have defended that well all season . Great shout on the unders Karel. Hope you took em to the cleaners mate .

[Karel]

Thanks was I sweating on the 79th minute try for the 7/4 under 39 points, if he kicks it costs me £500. Thank god Paul Deacon was out otherwise I could have been cursing my luck. Having a really good run at the moment, I am though trying to be a lot more selective, not always easy when the gambling gremlin taps you on the shoulder.

Thoughts on game

I thought Hull were very good in defence and Bradford just tried to barge their way over the line. Saying that conditions were not great for open rugby, but I think Hull have found a new confidence and will keep them on side for the next few games. Also the ref was trying to take centre stage and did ruin the first half with all the penalties. But fair play to Hull and good luck to them, they seemed very hungry for the win.

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by Karel

Thoughts on game

I thought Hull were very good in defence and Bradford just tried to barge their way over the line. Saying that conditions were not great for open rugby, but I think Hull have found a new confidence and will keep them on side for the next few games. Also the ref was trying to take centre stage and did ruin the first half with all the penalties. But fair play to Hull and good luck to them, they seemed very hungry for the win.

That's Steve Ganson for you mate. Often all about him when he referees.

[Punto83]

Had Phil Bentham tonight at Featherstone, what an absolute knob. good job we ended up winning or he would have got lynched

[Karel]

That's Steve Ganson for you mate. Often all about him when he referees.

I agree, he is often like that, he even has that patronising voice to go with his 'I'm what everyone's come to see' attitude.

Rugby league seems to be going down the rugby union route of the whistle going every two minutes and is begining to ruin certain games.

[Punto83]

Originally Posted by Karel

I agree, he is often like that, he even has that patronising voice to go with his 'I'm what everyone's come to see' attitude.

Rugby league seems to be going down the rugby union route of the whistle going every two minutes and is begining to ruin certain games.

To some extent, I agree about Steve Ganson. But after giving the penalties and telling the captains that the next would result in a sinbin, he had to show the cards (rightly or wrongly) or his threats would have meant nothing.

The touchjudge who gave the 4th sinbinning for preventing a quick play the ball is I think Jamie Leahy, he refs in the National Leagues and is very whistle happy.

[Karel]

To some extent, I agree about Steve Ganson. But after giving the penalties and telling the captains that the next would result in a sinbin, he had to show the cards (rightly or wrongly) or his threats would have meant nothing.

The touchjudge who gave the 4th sinbinning for preventing a quick play the ball is I think Jamie Leahy, he refs in the National Leagues and is very whistle happy.

I agree once he had set a precedence he had to back it up, but I am seeing a lot of games recently that are being ruined by the whistle. If I have to say one thing in his favour, he was trying to open the game up and stop people lieing on.