PaddyPower Basketball Props for tonight 25/05

I must start by congratulating PaddyPower on two things. Number one introducing their props again which I am sure they will misprice soon and Number 2 - I have gone through their props with a fine tooth comb and to be honest they have things pretty Ok for tonight.

3 Point field goals market stands at 11, which is about right, maybe a tiny bit too low

Shaq Points market stands at 24, which I think is a tiny bit too high, but taking into account that the Lakers are at home and it is a potentially high scoring game, no real value here

Kobe Points market stands at 27. A little too high again in my opinion but again if you take into account the home advantage, I think that if I had to post a points total myself I would post 26, so they are pretty ok.

As for the rest of their props, no mistakes either I'm afraid. The good news though is with the stupidity of their US sports manager, as long as they are doing NBA props, it is inevitable that they will soon make another mistake. So all we have to do is keep checking they everyday and I am pretty sure that by Monday Night we will have found at least one more extremely profitable mistake.

I still wake up in the middle of the night sometimes, run to my computer before waking up and realising that PaddyPower will never put Kobe Bryant on 20 points again. To be honest, the 20 points market on Kobe, has to be one of the best bets I have seen all year. I still look upon it with great fondness, LOL

....I feel there are 3 big errors they have made.

Shaq rebounds 16. Under has to be the play here. He has to get 17 rebounds to do your money. That is a lot of rebounds when he could easily be sitting for the majority of the 4th qtr.

KG Rebounds over 13/Points over 21.5. Just too low on both scores. Only a matter of time before the stat hungry KG goes crazy. These numbers are too low on both accounts. Due a big numbers game.

Other smaller play would be Kobe under 27. Just a little too high here again because game is 9 point fav could spend some time on the pine tonight.

Shaq has averaged 15.5 rebounds over the last 6 games.

KG has averaged 22.16 points over the last 6 games and if you bet on Over 21.5, you would won 3 and lost 3 at a line of 21.5. As for KG's rebounds, he has averaged 14.16 rebounds over the last 6 games and if you bet on Over 13, you would have lost your bet 4 times out of 6.

As for Kobe I mentioned above that 27 is a little too high but in saying that, there is not a massive amount of value to be had at a 27 point line.

I agree with you Jock that PaddyPower have made a number of errors tonight, but I think these errors are pretty tiny. Remember to get true value you need a difference of at least 15% between their lines and the lines of other bookies. The reason you need about a 15% difference is that you are betting at odds of 1.83, which is substancally below Evens.

Last week PaddyPower were out by over 20% on Kobe points at a line of 20, which made it an excellent bet.

[bozzers corner]

Have taken Shaq under 16 boards - 17 boards to do your money is a lot even for Shaq....also like Lakers at -2 for the 3rd quarter....like the Bulls of the 90's they come to play in the 3rd....they beat the Wolves by 2 in Game 2 whilst playing one of the poorest games I have seen them play all year (except for the Mailman's elbow - legend ) - and beat them by 9 in Game 1.....

[bozzers corner]

Bad night - Shaq gets 17 boards and the 3rd quarter is the only one that the Lakers didn't cover (lost by 4) oh well at least the lakers won

bring on tonight